According to the latest forecast by Gartner 85 million electric vehicles (EVs), which include cars, buses, vans and heavy trucks, are expected to be on the road by the end of 2025.
The battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in use worldwide are forecast to be almost 62 million units by the end of 2025, an increase of 35% from 2024. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are expected to grow at a slightly slower rate and reach an installed base of 23 million units in 2025, up 28% from 2024 (see Table 1).
Table 1. Electric Vehicle Installed Base by Vehicle Type, Worldwide, 2023-2025 (Single Units)
| 2023 Installed Base | 2024 Installed Base | 2025 Installed Base | |
BEV | 32,628,884 | 45,872,824 | 61,860,183 |
PHEV | 13,402,907 | 18,159,560 | 23,283,006 |
Total | 46,031,791 | 64,032,383 | 85,143,189 |
Source: Gartner (October 2024) Jonathan Davenport, Sr Director Analyst at Gartner said, “Despite several hurdles affecting the EV market over the past few months, we are projecting the number of EVs in use globally to total 64 million units in 2024 and increase 33% in 2025. Many companies overestimated how quickly the switch to EVs would occur. This caused those companies to delay launching new EV models. The growth in 2025 will be driven primarily by higher EV sales in China (58%) and Europe (24%), which together are projected to represent 82% of total EVs in use worldwide.”
China leads in EV adoption
Regionally, China’s EV ownership is expected to far exceed that of the rest of the world through 2025 and likely into the next decade. While demand for EVs will grow in Europe and North America, these regions are projected to account for 36% of global EVs by 2024. By 2025, Gartner estimates that China will have 49 million EVs, compared to 20.6 million in Europe and 10.4 million in North America.
India plays catch-up
India is expected to have 500,000 EVs on the road by the end of 2025, including 370,000 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and 129,500 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). (see Table 2).
Table 2. Electric Vehicle Installed Base by Vehicle Type in India, 2023-2025 (Single Units)
| 2023 Installed Base | 2024 Installed Base | 2025 Installed Base | |
|---|---|---|---|
BEV | 152,944 | 242,439 | 370,043 |
PHEV | 57,988 | 89,362 | 129,459 |
Total | 210,932 | 331,801 | 499,502 |
Source: Gartner (October 2024)
The number of EVs on the road in India is expected to grow, increasing 51% in 2025.
Davenport said, “Economic incentives like the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME) scheme are making EVs more affordable than petrol or diesel cars. Indian customers are increasingly willing to make procurement decisions that will result in improving air quality levels.”
What happens to EV batteries?
By 2030, automakers aim to recycle 95% of EV batteries to address raw material shortages, which will become increasingly challenging as EV sales continue to rise annually.
Davenport further continues, “A robust recycling effort to take advantage of materials in spent batteries and scrap from the manufacturing production process, which, together with EU efforts to mandate battery recycling, could reduce the need for more mineral excavation. Because concentrations of rare metals in batteries are higher than in natural ores, spent batteries can be seen as highly enriched ore. If recovered at large scale, the spent batteries could support the overall commercial viability of EVs by bringing battery prices down. There would be the additional benefit of batteries not ending up being disposed of in unethical manners or put into landfill sites.”
