Share Market HIGHLIGHTS: Sensex zooms 1328 pts, Nifty ends at 16658, indices defy Russia-Ukraine war

Sensex rallied 1328.61 points or 2.4 per cent up 55,858.52, while Nifty 50 settled at 16658.40, up 410 points or 2.5 per cent.

Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), India’s largest insurance company, filed its DRHP on February 13 and mentioned an amendment. In the ‘risk factors’ section of the DRHP, LIC said that it is splitting the single ‘Life Fund’ into participatory and non-participatory funds. This will have a positive impact on LIC’s valuations and will be beneficial for shareholders. But how does it affect the policyholders is the question. Read full story

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. will replace Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. in the benchmark Nifty 50 from March 31, 2022, as part of the semi-annual index review. Over the last few years, the company has transitioned from a pure hospital company to a complete healthcare platform comprising of hospitals, clinics, pharmacies, diagnostic centers, and a strong digital healthcare platform. Ajay Modi, VP Research at Piper Serica, SEBI Registered Portfolio Management Service Provider

Benchmark equity indices maintained their upward momentum in noon dealings during the rock-solid session of trade, owing to purchasing in front-line counters and adopting cues from overseas peers. Investors were relieved by a series of strong sanctions imposed by the US and other countries against Russia. The Indian economy is now prepared for recovery, according to Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran, but the high crude oil price is a matter for concern. He said that the country's banking industry is stable, that capital is plentiful, and that credit demand is on the rise. On the global front, Asian markets were mainly higher, owing to a bounce in US equities following the announcement of new penalties against Russia. Gaurav Garg, Head of Research, Capitalvia Global Research

One issue that’s pulling the markets down globally is inflation. US policy rates continue to hover around the 0.25% mark while inflation has topped the 7% mark. The stickiness of the inflation is more worrisome than the trajectory itself. This essentially means that Fed action is going to be sooner than expected and the rate hikes are more likely to be front-loaded than earlier expected. Inflation is an issue in India as well with CPI now topping the 6% mark, you should expect the interest rates to have bottomed out here. Rates, albeit measured and controlled, are likely in 2022 in India. Read full story

Would the conflict in Ukraine put pressure on the Reserve Bank of India to shift gears in monetary policy? The answer is not a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’; but experts see the RBI favouring growth over pressure from global forces in the near term. RBI released its MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting minutes on Thursday, which indicated that the policymakers may not immediately react to escalating geopolitical tensions, and will continue to support domestic growth, economists say.

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Banks in India will remain closed for up to 13 days in March 2022, including second and fourth Saturdays, and Sundays. Apart from the six weekly offs, banks will remain shut in different states or cities on account of different holidays. The banks remain open on the first and third Saturdays every month. It may be noted that banks in most states will remain closed on 18 March 2022, on account of the festival of Holi. While banks in Agartala, Bengaluru, Bhubaneswar, Chennai, Imphal, Kochi, and Thiruvananthapuram will remain open on Holi. The Reserve Bank of India has categorised holidays under three categories — Holiday under Negotiable Instruments Act; Holiday under Negotiable Instruments Act and Real-Time Gross Settlement Holiday; and Banks’ Closing of Accounts. Read full story

Domestic markets were witnessing some recovery on Friday as global markets rebounded. S&P BSE Sensex zoomed more than 1600 points to reclaim 56,100 while the broader NSE Nifty 50 index rallied past 16,700 levels. The pullback on Dalal Street comes a day after the benchmark indices witnessed a sharp 4.7% correction as investors reacted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On BSE, a total of 53 scrips soared to trade at fresh 52-week highs while 14 stocks scaled fresh highs on the NSE. India VIX, the volatility gauge, was down 17.4% as indices rallied, still holding above 26 levels. 

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Apollo Hospitals share price surged over 7% on Thursday after the National Stock Exchange (NSE) had announced that the stock would be included in the benchmark Nifty 50 index effective from March 31. Inclusion of Apollo Hospitals into Nifty 50 is expected to result in inflows of $143 million from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that mirror the index, according to brokerage firm Edelweiss Securities. Apollo Hospitals shares were trading at Rs 4,695 on BSE, up 7.14%. The stock has surged over 50% in the last one year and is expected to further rally, going forward.

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Precious metals witnessed unprecedented volatility yesterday, gaining sharply during the first half of the session boosted by safe haven buying after news broke out that Russia has attacked Ukraine. However, there was a dramatic turnaround from the session's high, with both the metals paring most of their intraday gains as risk aversion abated during the US hours. With the dollar strengthening to multi-month highs and bond yields elevated, precious metals are likely to face headwinds at higher levels. However, with geopolitical tensions elevated and with the weekend approaching, volatility will remain a dominant theme and as such, movements in gold and silver are likely to remain extremely sensitive to news flows from Ukraine. Abhishek Chinchalkar, CMT Charterholder & Head of Education, FYERS

Indian equity markets plunged around 3% on Thursday as geopolitical tension escalated after Russian president Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine early Thursday. Following this, explosions were reported in several areas of Ukraine and air sirens went off in Kyiv, indicating that the capital city is under attack. Markets across Asia plunged and oil prices surged after Russian military action in Ukraine. A massive sell-off that started in Asian markets spilled over to India and other indices. Benchmark indices in Tokyo and South Korea fell 2% and Hong Kong and Sydney lost more than 3%.

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First half of the March series is likely to be challenging for market participants and hence till the time global tensions does not fade away, it would be difficult to project any levels. Just to keep some levels handy, in case of any extended correction towards 15800 – 15500 – 15200 and 34000 – 33000 for Nifty and Bank Nifty, respectively, one can certainly look to go long. However how things unfold, that time will tell, but as a trader one needs to follow strict risk management rules.

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NSE Nifty 50 semi-annual index reconstitution will see Apollo Hospitals Enterprise enter the benchmark index, replacing PSU stock Indian Oil Corporation. The move is in line with expectations on Dalal Street. Inclusion in Nifty 50 is expected to result in inflows of $143 million towards Apollo Hospitals, according to analysts at Edelweiss Alternative Research. NSE has also made changes to the Bank Nifty index, Nifty Next 50, and Nifty 500 along with the midcap and smallcap indices. Changes announced yesterday to the various indices will come into effect from March 31, 2022.

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Gold Price Today, Gold Price Outlook, Gold Price Forecast: Gold prices in India fell on Friday, even as rates in the international market rose. On Multi Commodity Exchange, gold April futures tanked Rs 530 or 1.03 per cent to Rs 51,014 per 10 grams, as against the previous close of Rs 51,543. Silver May futures were seen ruling at Rs 65,725 per kg, down Rs 1,173 or 1.75 per cent. Globally, yellow metal prices rose, steadying after a volatile session, as investors reassessed the situation surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and fresh sanctions against Moscow from the West, according to Reuters. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,909.06 per ounce, while US gold futures fell 0.8% to $1,910.70.

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Going ahead, strong support for the Nifty is placed at 15800. Key point to highlight is that, past four months 13% correction from life high of 18600 hauled weekly stochastic oscillator in oversold territory (currently placed at 20), indicating possibility of impending pullback can not be ruled out. In the process, only a decisive close above 16800 would lead to pause in downward momentum. We believe 15800 would act as key support as it is confluence of a) The breakdown implication of past four weeks consolidation (17795-16810) is placed around 15800 b) 61.8% retracement of April-October rally (14150-18600) is placed around 15800.

~ ICICI Direct

Investors' focus now shifts to assessing the monetary policy impact and the Fed's action on the rising inflation. Russia Ukraine tensions have changed the economic picture for Fed and the pace at which it could certainly raise interest rates, but rising inflation certainly adds the interest rate hikes on the cards. This will certainly add pressure to the EM currencies including Indian rupee in the long term. Besides, certainly, the fundamentals are weak for the rupee with higher oil prices and RBI policy divergence. Overall, we expect only a short term reversal in the USDINR pair with a downside limited to 74.70-90 and the medium-term view is pair will move higher towards 75.50-76.00 levels. Amit Pabari, managing director, CR Forex Advisors

NYMEX crude trades over 2% higher near $95/bbl but well off the 2014 highs set yesterday. Crude oil came off the highs as US and other western countries have so far refrained from imposing sanctions on Russian oil and gas sector. Adding pressure to price is bigger than expected increase in US crude oil stocks, prospect of Iran’s nuclear deal and US willingness to release more stocks from reserves to keep market supplied. Crude may remain volatile as market players assess Russia-Ukraine development however supply risks may keep prices supported. Ravindra Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP- Head Commodity Research at Kotak Securities

Rollovers for Nifty/Bank-Nifty stood at 77% (1.12cr shrs)/76% (22lakh shrs) vs 75% (1.09cr shrs)/84% (19.8lakh shrs) previous month. Market wide rolls stood at 89%vs 91% previous month. On options front, Max. call/put OI on Nifty for March monthly series at 18000 call strike and 16500k put strike. Given the fact, CBOE index reclaiming levels of 30, Gold inching higher and depreciation of rupee against the dollar; undertone for the market remains negative. Higher VIX is likely to keep near term outlook uncertain with overhead resistance near 16800. YES Securities

Nifty crumbled ~5% in the February series, down for the straight fifth expiry. Throughout the series, Nifty trended lower as recoveries remained short lived. Brent crude topped $100/bbl, while Gold is roaring above $1900/oz. Highlights for the Feb series were a) BankNifty underperformed, losing 7% on expiry to expiry basis b) India volatility index shot up 52% on eoe to settle near levels of 32, it is highest reading since June 2020 c) Nifty Realty and Media sector underperformed the most, down 11/13%. eoe d) Midcap and small cap stocks fell like a pack of card in the recent past. YES Securities

We were hoping for a reversal from 16580 yesterday, but after a brief pause, panic blew this level away, stretching the selloff till 16203.25. The 16200 mark, incidentally, had come up for mention several times over the last few months, commanding an acknowledgement, which is why we had purposefully not brought in levels deeper than 16200 into yesterday’s commentary. Expect trades to slot into the 16430-16620 region initially, but the key event to watch out today would be a potential decline in VIX and consequent erosion in premium. Anand James – Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services

Paytm share price jumped over 3.6 per cent to Rs 806.65 apiece on BSE in Friday's trade

All the Nifty sectoral indices were trading in the green. Nifty Bank index jumped 2.5 per cent, followed by Nifty Auto, Nifty Media, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Metal

India VIX, the volatility index, fell 15.02 per cent to 27.18 levels

IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Bajaj Finserv, Wipro, ICICI Bank, TCS, SBI, RIL were top Sensex gainers

Indian exchanges will be moving to T+1 settlement from today in a phased manner. “The new settlement process is good, both for investors and brokers. For brokers, this process will result in an early release of margins blocked with the exchange. The brokers can free some of their working capital blocked in the form of margins. Investors can benefit from an early receipt of funds in case of sale and an early receipt of shares in case of purchase,” said B Gopkumar, MD & CEO, Axis Securities.

BSE Sensex rallied 1,012 points or 1.7 per cent to 55,558, while Nifty 50 index crossed 16550, rebounding sharply from Thursday's lows.

Sensex zoomed 600 points in the pre-open session to regain the 55,100 mark while the Nifty 50 index was up 220 points, inching closer to 16,500.

Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Lucknow: Petrol and diesel prices remain unchanged on February 25 with oil marketing companies (OMC) deciding not to revise prices even as crude oil prices skyrocket. Petrol in the National Capital of Delhi currently retails at Rs 95.41 per litre while diesel in the city is priced at Rs 86.67 per litre. In Mumbai, a litre of petrol and diesel cost Rs 109.98 and Rs 94.14, respectively. Fuel prices have been stable since the central government cut excise duty to bring down retail rates from record highs in November last year. Public sector OMCs including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revise the fuel prices daily in line with benchmark international price and foreign exchange rates. 

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Domestic benchmarks indices BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 plunged for the seventh straight session on Thursday, on monthly F&O expiry. Indian equity markets have witnessed steep correction in the last few sessions as Russian troops attacked Ukraine after months of escalating tensions. Investors need to keep calm and patience to tide over the current situation, said experts. According to traders and analysts, investors can utilise the correction to accumulate quality stocks. International brokerage firm Jefferies is bullish on HDFC Bank, VBL, Gland Pharma, Laurus Labs and Dixon. Meanwhile, HUL, Fortis, Apollo and Crompton stocks have been removed from the ‘Top Buy Ideas’ list.

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Markets may open positive tracking recovery in SGX Nifty and overnight gains in Dow Jones. However, selling on any early excessive strength continues to be the preferred strategy as we suspect, the roaring Russian bear is likely to send Nifty below the psychological 16000 mark. Long term support now seen only at 14271 mark. Technically speaking, Nifty’s long term charts are still painting a bearish picture; downside risk seen at 14271 mark. From a chartist standpoint, the technical landscape will improve considerably only if Nifty closes above 17077 mark. Prashanth Tapse, Vice President (Research), Mehta Equities