As investors prepare to usher in Samvat 2082 this Diwali, HDFC Securities has released its MoneyFest Diwali Picks 2025 report, identifying 10 ‘Buy’ ideas with up to 24% potential upside. The brokerage’s Diwali picks span infrastructure, financials, consumption and clean energy sectors. It believes that these sectors can withstand short-term volatility. Among its ten Diwali picks, Sheela Foam, Northern Arc Capital and MSTC offer the highest return potential, while IDFC First Bank and Happy Forgings also show strong upside.
According to HDFC Securities’ MoneyFest Diwali Picks 2025 report, this Samvat could mark a turning point. The brokerage calls it an “inflection year” where softer interest rates, strong retail flows and steady earnings will separate quality stocks from the rest.
All ten stocks are rated ‘Buy’, with potential upside ranging from 15% to 24% by next Diwali.
10 Diwali stock picks by HDFC Securities
HDFC Securities on Associated Alcohols & Breweries: ‘BUY’
Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd (AABL) has been picked for its steady expansion and shift toward premium liquor brands. The company has a 20–25% market share in Madhya Pradesh and is expanding into Maharashtra, Karnataka, Goa and Uttar Pradesh, as per HDFC Securities.
It has launched premium labels like Nicobar Gin and Hillfort Whisky and plans new products in brandy and tequila. AABL’s integrated distillery setup with ENA and ethanol units supports cost efficiency and margin stability.
Revenue is expected to rise to Rs 1,381 crore in FY27 from Rs 1,076 crore in FY25, with profit improving to Rs 112 crore from Rs 81 crore.
The target price for AABL is at Rs 1,182, as per HDFC Securities, indicating an upside of 18.34%.
HDFC Securities on Bharti Airtel: ‘Buy’
Bharti Airtel remains HDFC Securities’ top telecom recommendation, driven by rising ARPU and a growing digital business. The company reported ARPU of Rs 250 in Q1FY26, and tariff hikes expected later this year could push it closer to Rs 300.
The brokerage noted that partnerships with Google, Oracle, Apple and Hughes are expanding Airtel’s ecosystem beyond mobile services. The integration of Indus Towers from November 2024 adds further scale.
HDFC Securities expects revenue and profit to grow around 15–17% annually through FY27, supported by enterprise and African market gains.
The target price for Bharti Airtel is at Rs 2,244, indicating an upside of 14.97%.
HDFC Securities on JSW Energy: ‘Buy’
JSW Energy is seen as a steady play on India’s energy transition. The company has already reached its 20 GW Strategy 2.0 target, well ahead of schedule, and is now moving toward 30 GW capacity and 40 GWh storage by 2030, as per the brokerage.
Despite a Rs 1.3 lakh crore capex plan, the company maintains strong financial discipline with 87% of its generation under long-term PPAs. Execution of new renewable and storage projects is expected to drive growth.
The target price for JSW Energy is at Rs 639, as per HDFC Securities, indicating an upside of 18.09%.
HDFC Securities on Larsen & Toubro: ‘Buy’’
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) remains the brokerage’s preferred pick among capital goods companies. The order book stands at Rs 6.1 lakh crore, backed by a Rs 14.8 lakh crore pipeline across infrastructure, energy, and hydrocarbon proj
A higher-margin hydrocarbon mix and better execution are expected to lift profitability through FY27.
The target price for L&T is at Rs 4,243, indicating an upside of 17.73%, as per HDFC Securities.
HDFC Securities on IDFC First Bank: ‘Buy’
IDFC First Bank has been highlighted as a turnaround story within financials. The bank’s CASA deposits grew 26% year-on-year, improving the CASA ratio to 48%, while the credit–deposit ratio rose to 93.4%.
Margins are expected to recover to 5.7% by Q3FY26, driven by lower funding costs and loan repricing. The brokerage expects profit to rise sharply from Rs 1,525 crore in FY25 to Rs 4,560 crore in FY27, with return on equity climbing to 14%.
The target price for IDFC First Bank is at Rs 88.5, indicating an upside of 21.50%, as per HDFC Securities.
HDFC Securities on Happy Forgings: ‘Buy’
Happy Forgings (HFL) has been picked for its strong order book and execution strength. The company has received Rs 1,600 crore worth of new orders, spread across passenger vehicle and industrial segments, to be delivered over the next five to eight years.
Its Rs 650 crore capex will expand capacity and machining capability, improving margins and supporting exports. HDFC Securities expects steady earnings growth through FY27.
The target price for Happy Forgings is at Rs 1,083, as per HDFC Securities, indicating an upside of 20.24%.
HDFC Securities on Northern Arc Capital: ‘BUY’
Northern Arc Capital (NACL) is positioned as a play on India’s financial inclusion theme. The company has strong asset quality, with gross NPA at 1.1% and net NPA at 0.6%, and continues to expand its MSME and consumer lending portfolio.
The brokerage expects PAT to rise to Rs 583 crore in FY27 from Rs 305 crore in FY25, helped by better yields and lower credit costs.
The target price for Northern Arc Capital is at Rs 333.5, indicating an upside of 23.32%, as per HDFC Securities.
HDFC Securities on Pidilite Industries: ‘Buy’
Pidilite Industries, the adhesives and construction chemicals major, continues to deliver consistent growth. The brokerage said moderating VAM (vinyl acetate monomer) prices have helped restore margins, while its brand leadership supports steady volume growth.
Revenue is expected to reach Rs 16,240 crore in FY27 from Rs 13,140 crore in FY25, with profit rising to Rs 2,673 crore from Rs 2,076 crore.
The target price for Pidilite Industries is at Rs 1,717, as per HDFC Securities, indicating an upside of 15.24%.
HDFC Securities on Sheela Foam: ‘Buy’
Sheela Foam (SFL) leads the pack in terms of potential returns. The brokerage noted that the Kurlon acquisition (Rs 2,150 crore EV) is yielding synergy gains, improving margins and operational efficiency.
EBITDA is expected to rise from Rs 250 crore in FY25 to Rs 503 crore in FY28, while profit is seen reaching Rs 264 crore.
The target price for Sheela Foam is at Rs 837, as per HDFC Securities, indicating an upside of 24.32%.
HDFC Securities on MSTC: ‘Buy’
MSTC, the PSU e-commerce and recycling company, remains a steady digital play. Its asset-light model and government-linked business provide stable income.
Revenue is projected to grow from Rs 311 crore in FY25 to Rs 397 crore in FY27, with profit expected to reach Rs 284 crore from Rs 197 crore.
The target price for MSTC is at Rs 673, indicating an upside of 23.85%, as per HDFC Securities.
HDFC Securities said India’s market fundamentals remained solid even amid short-term volatility. With inflation easing, liquidity improving and public spending steady, the brokerage believes Samvat 2082 will favour investors who stay disciplined and selective.
