Most technical analysts swear by the top-down approach, starting with sector strength, filtering what’s outperforming, and eventually arriving at winning stocks. Sometimes, one or two heavyweight stocks can drag an entire sector upward or downward, masking the real picture and quietly misleading traders about the sector’s overall performance.
On the other hand, the bottom-up approach, picking specific outperformers regardless of their sector, can present better opportunities, but it often comes with a dose of uncertainty. A stock without sector support may rise, but the risk is always higher. So which approach works?
The Seasonal twist
According to seasonality data of the last 14 years, November averages a return of –0.54%, while December delivers a positive 0.98% average gain.
Not impressive at first glance. Yet, buried within these numbers lies a plot twist when the broader sector looks weak, specific stocks in the Nifty Pharma basket have historically shown strong seasonal behaviour.
So, while the pharmaceutical sector as a whole carries negative average return in November, individual stocks within it boast superior performance during November and December.
Seasonality within pharma
When we dive deeper, things get interesting.
In November, Wockhardt, Abbott India, and Lupin shine the brightest.
In December, the baton passes to Aurobindo Pharma, Mankind Pharma, and JB Chemicals.
If we combine both months, November and December,
AuroPharma, Glenmark, and WockPharma lead the table.
If history indeed rhymes, these three counters set the stage for a potential November entry and December exit strategy. Let’s decode them.
1. Aurobindo Pharma (AuroPharma)
Sometimes stocks need time to breathe. After reaching its all-time high of Rs. 1,586, AuroPharma has corrected sharply, by around 35%, and is now cooling near the Rs. 1,000 handle.
On the weekly charts, something beautiful is happening quietly. The stock is forming a basing structure, coiling within a descending triangle, almost like a spring compressing before release.
A breakout on the north side confirms the bullish undertone, and prices are now building a base near the 200-week EMA channel, often a long-term support zone.
What’s holding it back right now?
The 62-week EMA channel is acting as stiff resistance. A sustainable move above Rs. 1,200 right near this barrier may catapult the stock upwards. December’s positive seasonality plus a confirmed breakout could probably fuel a momentum-led rally.
Sometimes, in the stock market, all you need is patience, like watching clouds clear before the sky turns blue.
2. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (Glenmark Pharma)
From its peak near Rs. 2,279, Glenmark Pharma has cooled to around Rs. 1,800–1,826, forming a new comfort zone for buyers.
The chart doesn’t forget the price and an old resistance near Rs. 1,826 has now flipped into support. The support zone, with a psychological level of Rs. 1,800, creates a stronger demand zone.
The emergence of a Bullish AB=CD Harmonic pattern, a Fibonacci-based reversal pattern. A high-spread volume candle has further cemented this level as a zone where strong hands may have accumulated.
Glenmark appears poised to the north, supported by pattern, price memory, and volume – three pillars of conviction.
In trading, confluence is the closest one gets to certainty—and Glenmark checks all three boxes.
3. Wockhardt Ltd (WockPharma)
If any of the three feels like the loudest whisper from the market, it’s WockPharma.
On the weekly timeframe, price action has been curving upward, carving higher highs and higher lows, the simplest yet purest definition of an uptrend. Bulls are in command, and they’re not shy.
The Donchian channel, which defines breakout and support ranges, is sloping upward. The price consistently respects the lower band, suggesting that dips are being bought.
A potential bullish reversal candle has emerged at the base, hinting at accumulation, as if smart money is quietly filling its bags.
The MACD is moving into historically deep negative territory. While that may sound bearish, the first bullish crossover from these zones often accelerates the bullish momentum. A breakout could propel prices towards the upper Donchian band near Rs.1,867.
The Pharma Trio
The November–December window reveals when sectors appear dull on the surface, but individual stocks can brighten the landscape.
The Pharma sector trio AuroPharma, Glenmark Pharma and WockPharma may present opportunities for traders seeking short-term momentum.
Buy in November. Sell in December. If history rhymes, the charts may sing.
Note: The purpose of this article is only to share interesting charts, data points and thought-provoking opinions. It is NOT a recommendation. If you wish to consider an investment, you are strongly advised to consult your advisor. This article is strictly for educative purposes only.
Brijesh Bhatia is an Independent Research Analyst and is engaged in offering research and recommendation services with SEBI RA Number – INH000022075. He has two decades of experience in India’s financial markets as a trader and technical analyst.
Disclosure: The writer and his dependents do not hold the stocks discussed here. The website managers, its employee(s), and contributors/writers/authors of articles have or may have an outstanding buy or sell position or holding in the securities, options on securities or other related investments of issuers and/or companies discussed therein. The content of the articles and the interpretation of data are solely the personal views of the contributors/ writers/authors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific objectives and resources, and only after consulting such independent advisors if necessary.
