Share Market Highlights: Sensex ends 708 pts higher, Nifty settles near 17700; NTPC, Powergrid top gainer

Benchmark indices ended higher on first day of the new financial year with Nifty closing near 17,700. BSE Sensex ended 708.18 points or 1.21% higher at 59,276.69, and NSE Nifty Nifty 50 shut shop 205.70 points or 1.18% up at 17,670.50. NTPC, BPCL, Power Grid Corporation, IndusInd Bank and SBI were among the top Nifty gainers, while Hero MotoCorp, SBI Life Insurance, Sun Pharma, Tech Mahindra and Titan Company were the top losers. All the sectoral indices ended in the green with auto, bank, oil & gas, realty, power and PSU Bank indices up 1-4 per cent. In broader markets, BSE midcap and smallcap indices added over a percent each.

Equity indices on Wall Street have been moving higher since the US Federal Reserve hikes interest rates on March 16. The S&P 500 has gained 4%, NASDAQ is up nearly 6%, and the Dow Jones is up 2%. “These developments indicate markets may be counting on a “Goldilocks” scenario, where policymakers tame inflation with limited damage to economic growth and keep long-term rates low by historical standards,” said Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. She added that there are reasons to believe that the confidence investors are showing right now may not be warranted.

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We expect FY23 to witness continued volatility in equity markets, especially in the first half of the year with rising interest rates globally and high inflation, which is expected to persist. In this scenario, we expect money to move from long-duration debt funds to equity funds in the second half, which should bode well for equities. Our year-end target for Nifty is 20200. Some sectors where we are positive include Metals, Hospitals, Hospitality, Oil Refining, Capital Goods, etc. Nishit Master, Portfolio Manager, Axis Securities

Indian equity markets were flat on Friday. Given the global developments, market volatility is expected to remain high in the near term. However, economic recovery coupled with government focus on Capex and domestic manufacturing would drive overall growth in FY23, according to experts. ICICI Direct said in its report that Nifty is on road to recovery towards 18,100. It believes that buying on decline strategy should continue to work in favour of market participants and investors should focus on accumulating quality stocks on dip as Nifty is not expected to breach 16,800. Read full story

India is an important trading and strategic partner of the US, a top Biden administration official has told American lawmakers, asserting that despite some sharp differences, the two countries have agreed to work together on various issues, including the market access commitments. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, testifying before the Senate Finance Committee on Thursday during a hearing on the US Trade Policy Agenda, noted that there are sharp differences between the two countries on a number of issues.

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India VIX, the volatility index was down 3% on Friday, falling below the 20 level mark. The volatility gauge was above 28 levels a month ago.

Bharti Enterprises and Brookfield, have entered into a joint venture agreement for four high quality commercial properties totalling to 3.3 million square feet. The properties include Worldmark Aerocity (Delhi), Worldmark 65 and Airtel Center (Gurgaon) and Pavillion Mall (Ludhiana). As part of the joint venture, a Brookfield private real estate fund will purchase 51% stake from Bharti Enterprises, which will continue with a 49% economic interest in the properties. The Enterprise Value for the transaction is c. INR 5,000 crores. (BSE Filing)

FIIs broke their selling streak and turned buyers in the second half of the month. However the selling figures still outshine the buying effect and they cumulatively sold equities worth Rs 51700 crores in the March series. DIIs on the other hand, had an offsetting position and continued their increased participation and were net buyers worth Rs 48138 crores. The FIIs 'Long Short Ratio' in index futures ranged from 37.80% to 73.65% in the March series. It remained at its lower band for most of the series and rose on the concluding session which was its highest since January 2022. Motilal Oswal Financial Services

India VIX decreased by 35.71% from 31.98 to 20.56 levels in the March series. Volatility continuously cascaded down and this cool off gave comfort to the bulls. It has been making lower highs from the last five weeks and it now needs to sustain at lower zones for market stability. Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Last fiscal year was strong for gold as it gained around 12.82% with last quarter gaining around 6%. In Rupee terms, we saw a rise of R 5904. The floor for gold price was created in fiscal 2020 where the pandemic led to recession and unveiling of massive expenditures by governments and central banks. Supply chains were affected and loose monetary policy gave rise to inflation never seen in the last 40 years. This prompted bulls to notice and gold was getting eyeballs. To counter inflationary pressure and devaluation of currencies worldwide, investors started buying gold. Read full story

Zomato share price has been moving downwards since the year began. So far in 2022, Zomato’s share price has tanked a whopping 40% to now trade at Rs 82.05 per share. Analysts at global brokerage and research firm HSBC have maintained their ‘Hold’ rating on the scrip, seeing 11.5% upside potential from today’s lows. Zomato has faced the brunt of investors moving away from technology stocks across the globe as the interest rate hike cycle kickstarts. HSBC has a target price of Rs 92 per share set on Zomato.

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Going ahead, we expect the Nifty to trade with a positive bias and gradually head towards 18100 in April. However, the move towards 18100 would be in a non-linear manner. Hence, post a 12% rally from the March low of 15671, a temporary breather should not be construed as negative instead dips should be capitalised on as incremental buying opportunity. Historically we have observed that oversold reading of sentiment indicator (percentage of stocks below 200- DMA) leads to decent up move subsequent months. In the current scenario, sentiment indicator has bounced from oversold territory with a reading of 42%, indicating extension of up move going ahead.

~ ICICI Direct

Zomato's share price was up 3% on Friday morning. The stock has tanked 40% so far this year but brokerage form HSBC maintains a HOLD rating with upsite potential.

As far as Bank Nifty is concerned, although we can see positive close every day, the daily range has shrunk drastically, indicating lack of momentum in heavyweight constituents. Since there was no major change in prices yesterday, the immediate resistance levels remain as it is, i.e., 36600 – 36800 and the support is placed at 36000. Read full story

Gold was headed for its biggest quarterly gain since the pandemic-led surge in mid-2020 as concerns over soaring consumer prices and Ukraine crisis bolstered bullion's safe-haven appeal. The tussle between Russia and Ukraine continues as apart from attacks the latter has also commented on stricter sanctions to be levied. Strong retaliation from Ukraine is also increasing is also increasing the distress in the market. Weekly jobless claims data were reported higher supporting the metal prices. Today is very important as market participants will keep an eye on the U.S. non-farm payroll, unemployment data which if reported better than expectations it could put pressure on the metal prices. Broader trend on COMEX could be in the range of $1900-1980 and on domestic front prices could hover in the range of Rs 51,650- 52,500. Navneet Damani, Sr. Vice President – Commodity & Currency Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Nifty Bank index was up 0.2 per cent, holding above 36400 levels

On the flip side, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Titan Company, Nestle India, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) were among top index draggers.

NTPC was the top BSE Sensex gainer, up over 4 per cent, followed by Power Grid Corporation of India, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, and Kotak Mahindra Bank among others.

BSE Sensex was trading flat, dancing between gains and losses, while Nifty 50 index managed to hold the crucial 17450 level

The eventful March series started on a cautious note amidst geopolitical tensions on Russia Ukraine war. Amidst nervousness in global markets, the index corrected towards the start of the series and almost tested the 15700 mark. The India Vix rose sharply in this period which led to higher volatility and uncertainty. However, we then witnessed a V-shaped recovery from the lows as markets were oversold and traders preferred to cover their shorts. As the markets sustained their gains, implied volatility cooled off and we also saw long formations in Nifty to lead the index higher and end the March series with gains of 7%. 

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BSE Sensex was down 41 points, while NSE Nifty 50 index slipped below 17450 in pre-open

On the technical front 17,200 and 17600 are immediate support and resistance in Nifty 50. For Bank Nifty 35500 and 36800 are immediate support and resistance respectively. Mohit Nigam, Head – PMS, Hem Securities

The slide in crude oil yesterday came after President Joe Biden announced that the United States would release one million barrels of oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for up to 180 days. In additions to that allies and partners will also release 30-50 million barrel of oils. However, OPEC+ nations stick to its production quota and agreed to increase production of 4,32,000 barrels per day from 1st May, despite rising crude oil prices. We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile due to geo-political tensions and Chinese lockdowns. Crude oil is having support at $96.50–94.80 and resistance is at $103.50–105.00, in INR terms Crude oil has support at Rs 7,540-7,380; while resistance is at Rs 7,910–8,050. Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities

For Nifty, the support is seen at 200-DMA at 17069 mark and below the level, expect a waterfall of selling which could take Nifty down to 16691 mark with inter-month perspective. From a chartist standpoint, the technical landscape will improve considerably only if Nifty closes above its biggest hurdles at 17807 mark. Intraday support for Nifty is at 17321 mark. Prashanth Tapse, Vice President (Research), Mehta Equities

Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Lucknow: Petrol and diesel prices were left unchanged by oil marketing companies (OMC) on April 1, taking a breather after 9 hikes in 10 days. So far prices have increased by Rs 6.40 per litre across major cities. Petrol in the National Capital of Delhi currently retails at Rs 101.81 per litre while diesel in the city is priced at Rs 93.07. In Mumbai, a litre of petrol and diesel cost Rs 116.72 and Rs 100.94, respectively. Pieces were hiked last week for the first time in 4 months. Public sector OMCs including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revise the fuel prices daily in line with benchmark international prices and foreign exchange rates. 

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A small negative candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper and lower shadow. Technically, this pattern indicate a range bound action in the market. After an attempt of upside breakout of immediate hurdle of 17500 levels (previous swing high of 16th Feb), the market failed to sustain the highs and slipped into minor weakness. We also observe a lack of sharp selling from near the crucial overhead resistance of 17500 levels. This could be considered as a positive for the market as this consolidation movement could eventually result in an upside breakout of the hurdle. The short term trend of Nifty is range bound and this consolidation or minor downward correction could continue for the next 1-2 sessions before showing another round of upside bounce. Immediate support is placed at 17350 levels. Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

On a monthly F&O expiry day, volumes on the NSE were the lowest since the December expiry day. Nifty seems to be consolidating after a rise. In the new F&O expiry series and a new fiscal year, we could see some upward momentum in the first few days. Whether this will take Nifty beyond the 17795 mark will be interesting to watch. On down moves 17344 could be a support. Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities

Hariom Pipe Industries IPO received bids of 1,26,05,544 shares against the offered 85,00,000 equity shares, at a price band of Rs 144-153. Overall the issue was subscribed 1.48 times on the second day of bidding. The Retail portion was the most subscribed with 3.55 times followed by qualified institutional buyers with 0.44 times. The reserved portion of non-institutional investors witnessed a subscription of 0.32 times. The issue kicked off for subscription on Wednesday, March 30 and will be open till Tuesday, April 5.

Domestic equities witnessed roller-coaster ride in FY22 influenced by various factors globally and in home ground. On the positive side factors like reopening of the economy, healthy macro data and strong corporate earnings lifted the Nifty to new high of 18,604 in Oct’21. However concern over rising inflation, tightening of monetary policy by central banks, uncertain geo-political environment over Russia-Ukraine conflict and volatility in commodity prices kept the market gains on check. Despite these challenges Nifty gained 18.9% in FY22. Broader market outperformed with Nifty Midcap 100 up 25.3% and Nifty Smallcap 100 up 28.6%. Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

GAIL buyback at Rs.190 per share is attractive based on CMP. The buyback will result in a 1.5% reduction in a total number of shares outstanding and cause a marginal uptick in future EPS. The stock is currently trading at 6.1x EV/EBITDA 1Yr Fwd, which is lower than its 5Yr avg of 7.1x due to the headwinds in the sector. As per our analysis, the buyback can provide a return of 10% to 20% based on CMP & acceptance ratio of 50% to 100%, for short term investors. Sethumadhavan KS, analyst, Geojit Financial Services