Cement prices have eased again in November but Jefferies says the market is reading this softness too narrowly. The brokerage has recommended Buy on 8 cement sector stocks. It pointed to more predictable fuel costs, signs of discount moderation in several regions, and a demand pickup expected in the fourth quarter of FY26 as the factors that could help the sector turn a corner.
Meanwhile, the GST transition has added constraints in the non-trade segment, as companies face tighter oversight on pricing. Jefferies said this has acted as a ceiling in certain markets, though trade channels retain more room for realisation improvements.
Jefferies said its price targets reflect a 12-month horizon, and the highest potential return stands at 56%. Here is a detailed analysis of Jefferies’ top picks and investment rationale –
Jefferies on UltraTech Cement: ‘Buy’
UltraTech carries a target price of Rs 14,700, implying around 27% upside over the next 12 months.
Jefferies said UltraTech continues to operate with a scale advantage few others can match. The company’s ongoing capacity builds have remained on track, even in phases when certain regions faced weak realisations. This matters because UltraTech is never dependent on a single geography. When demand slows in one zone, the company often compensates through stronger dispatches in another.
The report noted that Northern and Central markets, where UltraTech has a strong footprint, saw prices hold steady on billing while discounts narrowed slightly. This pattern can provide a cushion as the year progresses. Meanwhile, the company’s balance sheet strength lets it absorb input-cost swings without cutting back on expansion.
UltraTech’s ability to secure fuel more efficiently than many peers remains another factor Jefferies pointed to. Energy, especially petcoke, forms a major portion of costs. With US petcoke up only 1% month on month and global coal still down substantially year on year, the brokerage expects UltraTech to capture a fair share of margin improvement once pricing stabilises.
Jefferies on Shree Cement: ‘Buy’
Shree Cement has been assigned a target price of Rs 33,420, offering nearly 27% upside within 12 months.
Jefferies said Shree’s strength lies in the way it runs its operations. Plants across its network often show lower heat consumption and tighter cost control compared with sector averages. This helps in months when prices weaken, because the company can still protect margins without relying on aggressive discounts.
The report also said Shree’s clinker capacities are positioned carefully across regions that tend to recover quickly when demand returns. For example, the North saw price stability in November, with billing levels holding and minor cuts in discounts. Jefferies believes Shree stands to benefit from such regional firmness ahead of the pickup expected in Q4.
The brokerage added that Shree’s measured expansion approach neither too slow nor overly ambitious, allows it to maintain financial discipline while still preparing for the next growth phase. And with costs becoming more predictable, the company’s margin trajectory could improve faster once realisations firm up.
Jefferies on Ambuja Cements: ‘Buy’
Ambuja’s target price of Rs 770 implies roughly 44% upside over the coming year.
Jefferies said Ambuja has seen better volume traction in trade-focused markets after the monsoon period, especially in pockets where activity slowed earlier due to elections and then bounced back. The report pointed to the East, where November prices dipped only around Rs 1 per bag on average, and demand began to normalise after election-related disruptions.
Energy inputs have also been working in Ambuja’s favour. International coal prices fell 22% year on year in the quarter-to-date period, which improves cost visibility. Jefferies noted that this fuel advantage should gradually flow into margins, especially since the company has avoided any aggressive discounting.
The brokerage said Ambuja’s expansion plans are structured to support volumes without pushing the company into high-risk spending. This approach, it said, helps preserve pricing discipline even when some competitors use non-trade discounts to chase market share.
Jefferies on ACC: ‘Buy’
ACC has a price target of Rs 2,170, translating to around 18% upside within the next 12 months.
Jefferies said ACC is in a phase where better utilisation at integrated units and stabilising input costs together create room for margin improvement. The North saw flat pricing in November, though non-trade discounts remained larger than usual. The report argued that this gap should narrow as the GST transition settles, which could support ACC’s realisations.
The company is also likely to benefit from a gradual recovery in construction activity following the 15-day pollution-related ban mentioned by dealers in Delhi. As demand evens out in Q4, ACC may capture an uptick in trade prices, even if non-trade remains soft for a bit longer.
Jefferies added that ACC’s cost work across energy, freight and clinker ratio has shown clearer results this year, giving the company a more stable starting point for the next cycle.
Jefferies on JK Cement: ‘Buy’
JK Cement’s target price of Rs 7,230 implies nearly 27% upside over 12 months.
The brokerage said JK Cement’s position is different from most other names because of its large white cement and putty franchise. These categories behave differently from grey cement and often move on the back of renovation demand rather than new construction. That separation alone gives JK Cement an additional buffer when grey cement prices weaken.
Jefferies also noted that the company has been expanding capacity through the Panna line, which may create short-term pressure in Central India as markets digest additional supply. However, once demand firms up Jefferies expects this in the final quarter the company should be able to utilise this capacity more effectively.
The report said JK Cement’s financial approach has remained steady. It has not pursued capacity at the cost of balance-sheet strain, which the brokerage considers crucial in periods of uneven regional pricing.
Jefferies on Dalmia Bharat: ‘Buy’
Dalmia Bharat has a target price of Rs 2,625, indicating around 32% upside over the next year.
Jefferies said Dalmia has spent the past several quarters working on cost control and reshaping its geographic presence. The company’s clinker additions improve integration and help secure long-term volume gains when demand holds. This is important because the South one of Dalmia’s core regions recorded the steepest November price drop at nearly 1% month on month.
The brokerage said these pressures are not structural and should ease once year-end demand improves. Dalmia’s procurement strategy for coal and petcoke also gives it a more stable cost environment compared with peers that depend heavily on spot markets.
According to the report, the company’s broader ambition to create a national footprint is progressing at a measured pace, ensuring operating stability through the cycle.
Jefferies on JSW Cement: ‘Buy’
JSW Cement’s target price of Rs 170 implies roughly 56% upside over 12 months, the highest in Jefferies’ cement coverage.
The brokerage said JSW Cement is at an expansion stage where capacity additions can meaningfully alter its presence in the South and West two regions where competition is strong and market share shifts are difficult without scale. JSW has continued to invest in capacity without pausing during soft-pricing months, which Jefferies views as a long-term positive.
The report said trade segments in JSW-interested markets have been relatively stable compared with the non-trade segment, which remains under pressure due to the GST-led oversight on pricing. With new clinker sources coming online and a rising share of trade-led sales, Jefferies expects JSW Cement’s margin base to strengthen steadily.
The company’s operating model, which relies on securing raw materials through integrated facilities, also reduces its sensitivity to fuel price swings compared with peers using higher-cost imports during volatile periods.
Jefferies on Birla Corporation: ‘Buy’
Birla Corporation has a target price of Rs 1,470, offering around 35% upside over the next 12 months.
Jefferies said the ramp-up of the Mukutban plant is essential for Birla Corp’s operating stability. Earlier phases saw cost pressures due to ramp-up inefficiencies, but the report said these have begun to ease. As the plant’s utilisation improves, cost per tonne should come down, giving the company more room to benefit from regional price improvements.
The brokerage noted that Central India saw flat pricing in November, even though discounts remained. As demand improves, especially in Lucknow and Indore markets, where dealers reported stronger volumes, Birla Corp could capture better realisations.
The report added that the gap between trade and non-trade pricing, which widened due to the GST transition, is expected to narrow over time, helping companies like Birla Corp that rely on disciplined pricing.
