If the sales of one sector was closely tracked since the GST new rates were announced, it is undoubtedly the auto sector. Slowing demand, steep taxes and the recent uncertainties with regard to the ethanol blending and its impact have been impacting sales of new vehicles. However, with the GST push right on time, the festive season has started strong for the Indian automotive sector. Tractor sales no doubt come across as the hero, but passenger vehicles and two-wheelers too joined the party with a steady uptick.
The passenger vehicle and two-wheeler registrations are up 21-24% in the first 9 days. Eicher Motors, Tata Motors and M&M have delivered strong 27-43% YoY growth in September. Key international brokerage house, Jefferies mentioned that this YoY growth was higher than their estimates, but “wholesales were significantly lower for Maruti Suzuki, and TVS Motors saw inline performance.”
Jefferies on September auto sales: Strong month for tractors
Though the registrations for new tractors rose just 4% in September, Jefferies analysis indicates that the “wholesales grew by 50% YoY in September (H1FY26 growth at 18%).” According to their calculations, “that truck industry wholesales also grew 6% YoY in September, although registrations were down 4% YoY.” The reason why these numbers are encouraging is because the tractor sales are indicative of rural demand. A healthy growth in tractor sales shows that the purchasing trends and demands across rural India are heading north.
Jefferies on September auto sales: Two-wheelers in limelight
Jefferies, in its analysis of the auto industry wholesales, highlighted that “two-wheeler dispatches rose 7% YoY in September, boosted by GST rate cuts (and the early timing of the festive season).” The two-wheeler registrations grew 7% YoY in September and a strong 24% YoY in the first 9 days of the festive season. Exports also grew 19% YoY in Sep
The makers of Royal Enfield, Eicher Motors, led registration growth in September with a 35% YoY jump in volumes, followed by Hero MotoCorp and TVS Motor seeing 11-19% growth. However, Bajaj Auto and Honda lagged behind.
According to a Hero MotoCorp press release, the “footfalls have more than doubled YoY in the festive season, with strong traction in the commuter segment.”
Jefferies on September auto sales: Bajaj Auto and TVS’ gain is Ola’s loss
The two-wheeler story in India is no longer complete without the mention of electric two-wheelers. The share of EVs in two-wheeler registrations rose 50 bps MoM at 8.1%, with TVS Motor & Bajaj Auto leading at 19-22% market share in September. “Ola’s electric two-wheeler market share had slipped to just 13% in September from 35% in FY24,” Jefferies highlighted. .
Jefferies on Sep auto sales: Passenger vehicles see sharp jump in festive registrations
When it comes to passenger vehicles, “there was a wide divergence across OEMs with Tata Motors clocking a 45% growth, followed by M&M clocking a 10% uptick. Hyundai, however, was muted with just 1% growth, while Maruti Suzuki, the market leader, saw an 8% de-growth. However, both Maruti Suzuki and M&M highlighted “logistical constraints impacting shipments”. Overall passenger vehicle registrations grew 8% YoY in September and jumped 21% in the first 9 days of the festive season.
“Tata Motors outperformed the industry, while Maruti Suzuki and M&M were broadly in line, while Hyundai lagged,” Jefferies added.
The share of EVs in the passenger vehicle segment was stable MoM at 5% with Tata Motors taking pole position in EVs with 40% market share in September; MG Motor and M&M clocked 21-26% growth, while Hyundai slipped to just 2%
Tata Motors, despite leading the sales chart, saw a decline in its market share. It has slipped to 54% in FY25 from 71% in FY24 and garnered 40% in September. MG Motors and M&M had 26% and 21% market share each in September.
The street will watch out for the final October sales numbers. to fully understand the impact of the GST cut. For starters, it’s been an encouraging start to the festive season.