Economists? forecast 8.5%, little change vs September
Headline inflation in October was little changed from the previous two months levels, according to 23 economists surveyed. Here is the economists? forecast for inflation according to the Wholesale Price Index for all commodities for October. The Central Statistical Organisation will detail provisional WPI for October on Monday, Nov 15. ( All data points below are according to the new series for WPI with 2004-05 as the base year ):
Key points
* Economists of 23 banks/ financial services entities surveyed
* Median of the projections for Oct inflation is 8.50%, average is 8.46%
* October inflation projections range between 8.10% and 8.80%
* Economists in the poll see Oct inflation little changed from Sep?s 8.6%
* Manufactured product prices keep Oct WPI firm, say economists in poll
* Economists say inflation remains high although steady due to base effect
* Economists say index is rising month-on-month as commodity prices rising
* Week-ended Oct 30 food inflation fell to 1 year low of 12.3%
* Week-ended Oct 30, WPI primary articles index up 14.9% from a year ago
* RBI expects inflation to slide to 5.5% by March
ECONOMISTS? COMMENTS & OCTOBER WPI INFLATION FORECASTS
RITUPARNA BANERJEE,
economist, Axis Bank (forecast: 8.6%)
?Primary articles inflation was about 100 bps lower in October, while fuel inflation was marginally higher. Manufactured products prices are expected to rise moderately on higher cement, sugar and some of the metals and metal products prices. Cement prices have increased 4-5%, sugar prices have risen in Delhi and Mumbai centres. Metal price movements were mixed with rise in aluminium products prices and fall in copper prices.?
MADAN SABNAVIS,
chief economist, CARE Ratings (forecast: 8.8%)
?While the rate of inflation for primary products has been coming down, the absolute price levels remain high. This is getting reflected in month on month index numbers that are higher in October even though the rate is lower due to the base year and harvest effects. Inflation hence still appears to be in the higher range which will merit close monitoring by the RBI.?
ORGANISATION/ECONOMIST POLLED AND PROJECTIONS OF EACH FOR OCT WPI INFLATION
Organisation/Forecast
Economist
* Anand Rathi Fin Services/Sujan Hajra, chief economist 8.20
* Axis Bank/Rituparna Banerjee, economist 8.60
* BoA-Merrill Lynch/Indranil Sengupta, India economist 8.50
* Bank of Baroda/Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist 8.58
* Barclays Capital/Siddhartha Sanyal, chief India economist 8.41
* CARE Ratings/Madan Sabnavis, chief economist 8.80
* Credit Suisse Investment/Robert Prior-Wandesforde, head of India, SE Asia Economics 8.20
* DBS Bank/Ramya Suryanarayanan, economist 8.30
* Dun & Bradstreet Info. Services/Arun Singh, senior economist 8.10
* Goldman Sachs/Tushar Poddar, economist 8.60
* HDFC Bank/Jyotinder Kaur, economist 8.10
* HSBC Global Research/Leif Eskesen, chief India economist 8.60
* ICRA/Aditi Nayar, economist 8.50
* IDBI Gilts/Namrata Padhye, economist 8.58
* Indicus Analytics/Sumita Kale, chief economist 8.40
* ING Vysys Bank/Deepali Bhargava, economist 8.40
* JP Morgan Chase (India)/Sajjid Chinoy, economist 8.20
* MF Global India/Anjali Verma, economist 8.58
* Nomura Fin. Advisory & Sec./Sonal Varma, India economist 8.74
* Religare Capital Markets/Jay Shankar, chief economist 8.50
* Standard Chartered Bank/Anubhuti Sahay, economist 8.50
* STCI PD/Meghna Patel, economist 8.50
* YES BANK/Shubhada Rao, chief economist 8.58
Background to monthly inflation data released by CSO
* From Oct 24, 2009, weekly WPI for all commodities estimate discontinued
* CSO updates WPI for all commodities monthly.
* Weekly update of WPI for primary articles, fuel group only.
* The base year was brought forward to 2004-05 recently.
