The forecast of ‘above-normal’ south-west monsoon rains by India Meteorological Department (IMD) has raised hopes of robust production of major crops including rice, pulses, cotton, maize and sugar, as well-dispersed and timely rains would ensure improved yields and price stability, major agricultural companies have stated.
They said that this would also help boost rural consumption demand.
“A good monsoon benefits the agrarian economy with improvement in crop yields and farmer incomes, driving positive sentiments. Together with increase in agricultural acreage and timely interventions spearheaded by the government, an above-normal monsoon is expected to boost rural demand in days to come,” S Sivakumar, group-head, agri-business, sustainability and IT, ITC, one of the largest integrated agri-business enterprises, told FE.
Companies and experts have said with a significant portion of India’s net cultivated area relying on monsoon rains for irrigation, south-west monsoons have the dual responsibility of managing crop production and replenishing key reservoirs.
“The projection therefore of a good monsoon signals a bountiful agricultural season and bodes well not just the country’s farmers, but for the agricultural ecosystem as a whole,” S Soundararadjane, chief executive officer, HyFarm, a major processor of potatoes, said.
IMD on Tuesday forecast ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall of 105% of the benchmark long period average during June-September this year. The met department had stated that there is an 89% chance of the rains being in the ‘normal-to excess’ range.
“The impact of robust monsoon extends beyond kharif crops and consistent rainfall replenishes reservoirs and groundwater levels, paving the way for a strong rabi season,” Rajavelu NK, CEO, crop protection business, Godrej Agrovet, said.
According to Tarun Sawhney, vice-chairman and managing director, Triveni Engineering and Industries, a leading sugar manufacturer said that the adequate monsoon rains would be healthy for sugar output next season which would be adequate for domestic consumption, diversion of ethanol and exports to neighbouring countries.
Meanwhile, Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) said that adequate and well-distributed rainfall especially across key cane-growing regions will be vital for healthy crop development, maintaining crop health and enhancing yield prospects in the coming season.
“It is likely to lead to an increase in acreage for key crops – paddy, maize, cotton, and soybean, driven by higher prices due to factors like eased export restrictions (rice), demand from the ethanol industry (maize), and lower acreages as well as crop damage in the previous year as has been observed in case of soybean and cotton, respectively,” Pushan Sharma, director- research, Crisil Intelligence, said.
Sharma said the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall needs to be watched during monsoon season.
The southwest monsoon after onset over Kerala coast in early June covers the entire country by July. The monsoon rains start gradually receding from the north region from the middle of September. The four months of rain accounts for over 75% of India’s annual precipitation.