Economic Survey 2024 Highlights: Private Capex is blowing; Re-orientation of farm policies needed, says CEA Nageswaran

The Indian shares opened lower today (July 22) as the stock market traded sluggishly. The downturn was driven largely by disappointing quarterly results from Reliance Industries and Wipro. The market is also witnessing heightened volatility in anticipation of today’s Economic Survey and tomorrow’s Union Budget.

The mini Economic Survey report tabled in January suggested that Artificial Intelligence presents a significant challenge for governments globally, particularly regarding its impact on employment, notably in the services sector.

In the mini economic survey presented in January, it was projected that India could potentially achieve a $7 trillion economy by 2030. Chief Economic Adviser Nageswaran affirmed in the report that, barring significant disruptions in FY25, it could mark the fourth consecutive year since the COVID-19 pandemic where the Indian economy grows at a rate exceeding 7 percent.

FM Nirmala Sitharaman will table the Economic Survey in Lok Sabha at 1:00 PM today. This comes a day ahead of the Union Budget 2024 announcement, as is the norm every year.

Union Ministers Nirmala Sitharaman, Pankaj Chaudhary, Jayant Chaudhary, Sukanta Majumdar and Kirtivardhan Singh will present the Survey document on the table in Lok Sabha today.

PM Modi also said that this budget will mark a crucial milestone for Amrit Kaal. He added that it will establish the groundwork for India‘s prosperous future.

Speaking ahead of the Budget Session, PM Modi said, “We are working to gradually realise the guarantees I have given. Our Budget will set direction of our journey for next five years, will set strong foundation for ‘Viksit Bharat’: PM Modi.

Ahead of the Budget session, PM Modi extended his greetings to the countrymen on the first Monday of Sawan. He said the whole country is looking at the monsoon session of the Parliament which is starting today. “This should be a positive session,” Modi said.

The Economic Survey 2024 will be presented in the Lok Sabha at noon and in the Rajya Sabha at 2 pm. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will introduce the document in Parliament.

This year, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will surpass former Prime Minister Morarji Desai’s record of presenting the maximum budgets in a row. Desai presented five annual budgets and one interim budget between 1959 and 1964 as finance minister. Sitharaman’s upcoming budget speech will mark her seventh, surpassing the records of Manmohan Singh, Arun Jaitley, P. Chidambaram, and Yashwant Sinha, each of whom presented five budgets.

Ajay Bagga, a banking and market expert, told PTI that Indian markets will closely scrutinize the Union Government’s Economic Survey. Bagga highlighted that while the Economic Survey primarily serves as a strategic document with aspirational recommendations, its data on economic growth and the government’s projections for revenue and expenditure will be of particular interest.

As Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman prepares to unveil the inaugural Budget of Modi 3.0, industry experts anticipate measures to bolster the rural economy and allocate substantial funds for agricultural infrastructure enhancement.

In the Economic Survey, a focal point for many is its central theme. Here are glimpses of two past themes:

2022: ‘Agile Approach’ – India‘s economic strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

2023: ‘Recovery Complete’ – Signifying the economy‘s full resurgence.

The document comprises comprehensive statistical data on economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, fiscal deficit, employment rates, amid other important metrics.

The Economic Survey today is anticipated to shine spotlight on agricultural productivity, which is critical for FY25. The sector’s gross value added (GVA) growth plummeted to a multi-year low of 1.4 percent in FY24, down from 4.7 percent in FY23, making it a focal point of analysis and concern.

This year’s mini economic survey suggested that India could aim to reach a $7 trillion economy by 2030. It also projected that the Indian economy would grow by more than 7 percent.

Chief Economic Advisor Dr. V Anantha Nageswaran will present an overview of the Indian economy in a press conference scheduled for 2:30 PM today.

At its core, the Economic Survey aims to paint a vivid portrait of the nation’s economic journey over the preceding year while casting an optimistic gaze towards the future economic landscape.

The survey typically delves into inflation, examining its current path and future projections within the framework of the Reserve Bank of India‘s forecasts for the fiscal year. For FY25, the RBI anticipates retail inflation to hover at 4.5 percent, slightly surpassing the targeted 4 percent mark.

Like a master navigator plotting a course for a grand voyage, the Economic Survey’s discoveries and counsel serve as crucial coordinates for the Union Budget. This document not only steers the government’s fiscal strategies but also, investment focal points for the approaching fiscal year.

Indeed! The Economic Survey goes beyond mere data. It has previously examined the influence of climate change and gender disparities on the Indian economy. This time to it is anticipated to reflect upon the crucial subject of climate change. The survey also offers insightful analysis, policy recommendations to tackle economic challenges, and proposals for reforms and initiatives to bolster economic growth.

The Economic Survey is a crucial document which is prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs within the Ministry of Finance, and crafted under the guidance of the Chief Economic Adviser. The Survey provides an in-depth analysis of the economy.

Today also marks the commencement of Parliament’s budget session amid several contentious issues, including the Kanwar Yatra, NEET, and the situation in Manipur. Three states, two of which are governed by allies, are advocating for special status. The Union budget is scheduled to be presented on July 23 by FM Nirmala Sitharaman.

The most anticipated figure in the Economic Survey is the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal year. The previous survey that was tabled on January 31, 2023, showed the GDP growth between 6% and 6.8% for FY24.

The inaugural economic survey is said to have originated in 1950-51 as an integral component of the budget documents. By the 1960s, it was detached from the budget papers and began being presented a day ahead of the Union Budget.

The Economic Survey for 2023-24 is scheduled to be presented in the Lok Sabha at 1 pm and in the Rajya Sabha at 2 pm, as per PTI report. This will be followed by a press conference featuring Chief Economic Adviser Anantha Nageswaran.

The main theme in 2022 was ‘Agile Approach’, which focused on how India handled its economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. By 2023, the theme changed to ‘Recovery Complete’. This highlighted how the economy had bounced back from the pandemic, despite challenges like the Russian-Ukraine conflict and high inflation. It had returned to the growth path it was on before the pandemic started.

The Economic Survey plays a pivotal role in guiding policy decisions and shaping economic strategies. It fosters transparency through impartial assessments of the economy, ensuring governmental economic policies are held accountable.

Each year, the Economic Survey aims to offer insights into the economy‘s current state and key financial indicators of the past year, along with projections for the year ahead. It serves as a precursor to the Union Budget, offering clues about the government’s fiscal policies and priorities for the upcoming fiscal year 2024-25. It is basically tabled to review the developments made financially in the last fiscal year.

The Economic Survey 2024 will be tabled in Parliament by FM Sitharaman at around 11:00 am -11:30 am today, as per media reports and sources. However, some reports are suggesting that the Survey will be table at around 1:00 pm.