India’s solar sector is gathering pace as installations accelerate and government schemes create a more reliable demand line across households, agriculture and public-sector buyers. Nuvama Institutional Equities estimates that the country is moving from 127 GW of installed capacity toward about 280 GW by 2030. With 22 GW already added in the first half of FY26, the brokerage expects manufacturers to enter a period of steady ordering supported by domestic content rules and a growing project funnel.
Integrated players such as Waaree Energies and Premier Energies have started adjusting their upstream plans to match this environment.
Nuvama on policy: Demand pipeline turns predictable
Nuvama notes that policy-linked demand is now central to the market’s momentum. The PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana aims for one crore rooftop systems, which translates into about 30 GW of potential installations. The PM KUSUM programme is geared toward 34.8 GW of agriculture-connected solar by March 2026, while the CPSU Scheme Phase II covers 12 GW for central public-sector buyers. Each of these programmes requires domestic modules, which keeps procurement within the country and shields manufacturers from import-driven price swings.
The brokerage adds that DCR-linked business delivers a margin advantage of 300–350 bp over open-market sales. The GST reduction on solar components to 5% from 12% has improved economics for developers, widening the base for new projects. The extension of the ALMM list for cells till June 2026 and for wafers and ingots till June 2028 has further increased confidence around long-term upstream investments.
Nuvama on rooftop and agriculture: Domestic content rules drive the bulk of new orders
Rooftop demand is expected to grow as Surya Ghar progresses, helped by subsidies and more predictable installation costs. Since every system under the scheme must be built with domestic content, Nuvama believes manufacturers will see a steady rise in higher-margin retail orders. Rooftop projects also tend to offer better pricing than large utility-scale installations.
Agriculture-linked demand under KUSUM is rising in states that have adopted feeder-level solarisation. These projects are smaller and more frequent, which supports a consistent order rhythm for domestic producers. Public-sector procurement through CPSU Phase II adds another layer of predictable demand. According to the brokerage, these channels together create more than 50 GW of domestic module demand, enough to support multi-year capex commitments.
Nuvama on Waaree: Strong quarter supports an aggressive upstream plan
Waaree Energies delivered a firm second-quarter performance. Revenue rose to Rs 6,065.6 crore from Rs 3,917.6 crore, while EBITDA increased to Rs 1,406.4 crore from Rs 524.5 crore, lifting the margin to 23% from 13%. Net profit reached Rs 842.6 crore from Rs 327.3 crore. The company maintained its FY26 EBITDA outlook of Rs 5,500–6,000 crore, which is more than double FY25.
Nuvama highlights Waaree’s order book of 24 GW, valued at about Rs 47,000 crore, and notes that retail sales already account for 19–20% of domestic revenue. With rooftop installations expected to grow, this share may rise further.
The brokerage says Waaree’s plan to invest Rs 25,000 crore through FY28 under PLI demonstrates a clear intent to lead the upstream shift. The company aims to add 10 GW across modules, cells, wafers and ingots in Gujarat and Maharashtra. It is also expanding its storage business from 3.5 GWh to 20 GWh, a project expected to cost around Rs 8,000 crore, with the first phase planned for FY27. Its US operations added Rs 160 crore in operating income through the Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit, supported by realisations of 26–30 cents per watt, which remain above Indian non-DCR pricing.
Nuvama on Premier: Expansion brought forward as domestic orders rise
Premier Energies has accelerated its expansion timeline in response to stronger domestic demand. The TopCon cell plan was raised from 4.8 GW to 7 GW, and ingot and wafer capacity was increased from 2 GW to 5 GW, taking projected cell capacity to 10.6 GW by September 2026.
Second-quarter revenue rose to Rs 1,836.9 crore from Rs 1,530 crore, while EBITDA moved to Rs 560.9 crore from Rs 382.1 crore, pushing margins to 31% from 25%. Net profit increased to Rs 353.4 crore from Rs 206 crore. Premier’s order book is 9.1 GW, worth around Rs 13,200 crore, and is fully domestic.
Nuvama notes that Premier is expanding into inverters and transformers through KSolare and Transcon, with inverter capacity targeted at one million units a year and transformer capacity planned to rise from 2.5 GVA to 16.75 GVA. Capex of Rs 4,000 crore is allocated to 7 GW of cells and 5.6 GW of modules, with another Rs 6,000 crore for 5 GW of ingot-wafer lines. Storage plans of 6 GWh will require Rs 300 crore until June 2026 and another Rs 300 crore thereafter.
