By this time next year, we would know the results of the Lok Sabha elections slated to be held in April-May, 2024. Will a Narendra Modi-led BJP ride back to power with a brute majority as in 2019 or will a splintered opposition sink its differences to rule the nation for the next five years?
Much of the outcome will depend on the latter. An Opposition that was less than a year ago divided by its own interests found its voice with the disqualification of Rahul Gandhi from the Lok Sabha. It was by far the first significant instance when most major Opposition parties found common ground to come together.
Protest marches were taken out as the Opposition rallied behind the Congress and stood shoulder-to-shoulder in protest against the ruling Narendra Modi government. That single instance united Opposition parties, that hardly saw eye to eye in the recent past, like never before since the Modi government came to power in 2014.
In many ways, it also set off the first semblance of a united Opposition that not just unites for issue-based support but carries it forward to make an electoral impact. The Opposition had been brought to life. Meetings were held, Nitish Kumar was rushed to Delhi to reach out to like-minded parties seeking their support
Meetings were held between Akhilesh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Sharad Pawar, Nitish Kumar and others. Statements were issued regarding the feasibility of contesting elections together, the Adani issue and more.
While the agenda at most of these meetings remains the old intent to bring PM Modi down, challenges still remain. The first litmus test for this unity came on the issue of the new Parliament building. The row over the Centre’s ordinance to negate the impact of a Supreme Court verdict that placed a majority of services under the ambit of the Delhi government’s control could be next.
The biggest challenge for the Opposition still remains that it lags behind when it comes to numbers.
Take the instance of the inauguration of the new Parliament building by Prime Minister Narendra Modi that has sparked a row across political parties, with Congress and 18 other parties deciding to boycott the opening ceremony on Sunday.
The parties said PM Modi’s decision to inaugurate the newly built building himself by “completely sidelining” President Droupadi Murmu, is an insult to the high office of the President and is a violation of the letter and spirit of the Constitution.
The parties which signed a joint statement and have decided to boycott the opening are: Congress; Trinamool Congress (TMC); DMK; Janata Dal (United); AAP; Nationalist Congress Party (NCP); Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray); Communist Party of India (Marxist); Samajwadi Party (SP); Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD); Communist Party of India (CPI); Muslim League; Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM); National Conference; Kerala Congress (M); Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP); Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK); Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK); and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). Separately, AIMIM has also said it would not attend.
However, as many as 25 parties are expected to attend the inauguration, which includes 18 members of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), including the BJP and seven non-NDA.
The parties who have agreed to attend the inauguration are: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), National People’s Party (NPP), Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM), Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP), Apna Dal (Soneylal), Republican Party of India (RPI), Tamil Maanila Congress, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), Mizo National Front (MNF), Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP), Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), and Biju Janata Dal (BJD).
The parties attending the opening ceremony have 508 MPs in both the Houses of Parliament while the number of MPs from parties boycotting the ceremony stands at 242.
This should also be an eye-opener for Delhi Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi Party convener Arvind Kejriwal, who has been seeking the support of Opposition parties against the central government’s ordinance on control of administrative services in Delhi.
He had earlier said the prime indication of the Opposition unity would be the defeat of the ordinance Bill in the Rajya Sabha.
“If the BJP is not able to pass the Bill in Rajya Sabha, then one should consider it a semi-final of 2024. The message will be that the Modi government is not returning in 2024,” he said.
However, at the inaugural ceremony, the NDA together with the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), YSR Congress party (YSRCP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Telugu Desam Party have 131 members in the Rajya Sabha out of a total of 238.
It is, therefore, anybody’s guess what the semi-final results could look like.