With AirAsia and Tata-SIA expected to launch their services in 2014, the next fiscal may see a resurgence in air travel with consumers getting to choose from more airlines along with more competitive fares.
While in the low-cost segment, AirAsia will join the league of IndiGo, SpiceJet, GoAir and JetLite, in the full-carrier services segment, Tata-SIA will fill in the void created after the grounding of Kingfisher Airlines last year in October. Currently, only Jet Airways and Air India offer full-carrier services.
More than 60 million travellers will take to the air in the current fiscal ? levels last seen in fiscal 2012 when airlines carried 60.8 million domestic passengers according to a CAPA report. Domestic traffic had slipped 5.4 % to 57.5 million in fiscal 2013, following KFA?s collapse.
While Air Asia India plans to fill its seats with first-time fliers from smaller towns and cities, the Tata-SIA venture will look to fill the vacuum created by Kingfisher. AirAsia India?s first flight in the country is expected to take off by January 2014, while Tata-SIA is set to follow suit in May-June 2014.
Domestic travellers may also be encouraged to fly due to a substantial fall in ticket prices as airliners are likely to cut ticket fares to gain an edge with the entry of new players. Airfares had been hiked by 10-60% after KFA ceased all flights in October 2012. In order to support ticket price cuts, airlines may also have to cut down the number of flights, experts say.
?There is bound to be a price war with two additional airlines coming into the fold. But, then, I don?t think airlines have the capabilities to bring the prices too low,? Travel Agents Federation of India national general secretary Pradip Lulla said. ?Though, we could see prices drop by 15-20%, we could also see airlines cut down or merge flights to avoid losses.?
DGCA data notes that domestic passengers figure increased by 6.3% year-over-year to 2.9 million domestic passengers during March-September 2013. With the peak season (October-March) underway, this figure is expected to improve. Industry experts predict that the resurgence in air travel will carry into FY 15 with growth rates expected to pick up to 8-10%.
?If the government implements long-pending reforms in aviation turbine fuel and maintainance repair overhaul taxes, the next three years could actually see growth in excess of 15% per annum,? KPMG partner and head (aerospace and defense) Amber Dubey said.
Passenger load factor, the percentage of seats on a plane which are filled, had dropped considerably in FY13, as many switched to cheaper modes of transport after airlines hiked ticket prices following KFA?s grounding.
?The average load factor for FY15 could well be below that of FY14 if the jet fuel prices remain at the current level or shoot up in the coming months,? Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu senior director Amrit Pandurangi said. ?However, if the jet fuel prices come down, pressure on load factor will not be significant, which would lead to lowering of airfares.?