The government?s FY15 disinvestment programme, pegged at an ambitious R58,425 crore, is in danger of running off steam even before it has started, given the delay in final clearances for companies such as SAIL, ONGC, Coal India, and the fact that half of the fiscal year is already over.

The Centre had budgeted for stake-sales in 11 PSUs and residual stake sales in Hindustan Zinc and Balco. As reported by FE earlier, the government?s internal estimates actually pegged the expected disinvestment proceeds at about R13,000-15,000 crore higher than the budgeted target, mainly due to a Modi-driven bull run in the markets.

The disinvestment department had drawn a road map to start off the issues with SAIL in the last week of September. However, most of the PSU scrips have fallen off their year-high prices in June. Banking and government sources had told FE last month that SAIL?s 5% stake sale, worth about R1,800 crore and expected to kick-start the Centre?s disinvestment drive, was delayed due to weak share prices, as well as because of finance minister Arun Jaitley?s health issues. The three-member empowered panel, which is headed by Jaitley and is tasked with giving the final nod to the stake-sales, has not had a single meeting so far.

From a year-high of R110.15 per share in June, SAIL?s share prices have fallen 35% as of market close on Wednesday last week. Among the two public-sector behemoths, which on their own are expected to garner more than R41,000 crore in disinvestment proceeds, Coal India has lost close to 20% from its high while ONGC has declined close to 13%.

As things stand, in the next six months, the Centre will have to divest stakes in a host of PSUs plus HZL-Balco. If done right, there is nothing to suggest that the targets won?t be met. However, analysts and market watchers have repeatedly made a case for spreading out share sales in PSUs to ensure a healthy investor appetite, instead of bunching them together in the latter stages of a financial year, as has repeatedly been the case.

Jaitley and the policymakers in the finance ministry have to demonstrate that the lessons of the last fiscal have been learnt. Last year, the disinvestment target was cut by 60% in the revised estimates for various reasons, not the least due to lack of planning and coordination between various ministries under the UPA regime.

arup.roychoudhury@expressindia.com