By HARSH PANDEY
Poland is bracing itself for the elections next week. The Central European state joined NATO in 1999 and the EU in 2004. It is an essential player in European affairs, coming as the 6th major economy of the EU, the state of about 40 million people whose idea of life has been shaped mainly by a strong historical memory. Since 2015, it has been run by the hard-right Law and Justice Party. Its anti-migrant, anti-EU, pro-family, and pro-Church policies have caused two consecutive wins. The Law and Justice Party government has been in constant spat with the EU, challenging the ‘rule of law’ criteria, one of the foremost criteria to join the bloc. Since the 2015 migration crisis, Poland has had an anti-migrant political rhetoric exploited by right-wing parties where the EU has been targeted for its liberal migrant policies. Poland is part of the Visegrad-4 group of 4 states working as a sub-group within the EU: Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban has continually been elected to the post since 2010. His ‘illiberal’ version of democracy got its initial currency among his neighbours of Visegrad-4, particularly Poland. Poland has passed Europe’s one of the strictest abortion laws. It has also passed one legislation where the government has rights over judges’ appointments, jeopardising the fundamental democratic principle of checks and balances.
However, the war in Ukraine has united the European continent. Poland has welcomed Ukrainian refugees in high numbers. It is also one of the first countries to provide armed support to Ukraine against Russia. It doesn’t mean everything went normal between the EU and Poland. The EU has blocked around 39 billion US Dollars in Coronavirus recovery funds to Poland, which the country can use in the wake of rising energy prices and inflation.
Where are the players standing in the Polish elections?
This election can have a potentially defining impact on European politics. Suppose the Law and Justice Party manages to win the election again. In that case, it will be the win of Eurosceptic right-wing parties who manage to win from Italy to Slovakia and now in Poland. In opposition to the Law and Justice Party, the most prominent contender is Civic Platform. Civic Platform is a Centre-Right Europhile political party whose head, Donald Tusk, held the presidency of the European Council in the tumultuous times of Brexit.
The current political climate favours the incumbent government and the party running it. The Law and Justice Party has 36 per cent ratings. While the Opposition Civic Platform has slightly increased its ratings, getting about 30 percent of the votes. In the last elections, the Law and Justice Party got 43 per cent of votes and a whooping majority. It is not looking like the case right now and with the entry of a new Far-right coalition known as Confederation Freedom and Independence gaining increasing popularity. In July, it got 14 percent of votes. Current ratings have reduced its popularity, but it can indeed emerge as a king-maker supporting the Law and Justice Party and making it take tougher stances on the issues already being the bone of contention between the EU and Poland.
However, all is not grim for the Civic Platform, which has organised one of the biggest rallies in Poland after the democratic transition, claiming the leaders of Civic Platform. The “March of Hearts” rally on 1st October, just before two weeks of elections, shows enthusiasm for change among the people. The coalition of Left Parties is getting about 9 percent of votes and is expected to support the Civic Platform if it comes in the position of making the government. One group of Centre Right Parties known as Third Way (Poland 2050 and Polish Coalition) is also gaining some traction. However, it is mobilising against both the ruling party and the opposition. While the Polish Coalition has its stronghold in the village areas, the other partner in the Third Way Poland 2050 is stronger in cities. It is the main reason the Polish Coalition has a significantly mellowed down stance against the abortion laws, which are supported in villages where the people are more religious and believe in the holy trinity of “Church, Family, and State”. If the Third Way can penetrate this stronghold of the ruling party, it can make way for the Civic Platform revival.
What potential issues can be exploited in the elections?
Poland has been one of the top economic performers in the EU. The ruling Law and Justice Party is blending this success with providing financial help in the rural areas of Poland, which are their core voters and strongly support the Catholic Church, whose conservative values the ruling party claims to defend. On the front of foreign policy front, the ruling party has developed hostile relations with Germany, the country’s topmost trading partner. The war in Ukraine might not impact the election; however, its consequences can. Present-day Poland is suffering from double-digit inflation because of soaring energy prices. In the wake of the elections, the ruling party has lowered the gas prices. It has increased the subsidies for children, famous in rural Poland. However, it faces one big problem: for the ruling Law and Justice Party, its core voters involve the elderly population who may be dying off, making the situation worse for the ruling party.
The Law and Justice Party has been a signatory of the recently passed EU Migration pact, which tries to create a fairer distribution of asylum seekers. The party has now announced to oppose the system as staunch anti-migrant political rhetoric is one of the essential ingredients in its recipe of winning the last two elections. The party also has planned a series of referendums along with the polls. Through these referendums, the party is trying to focus on the issues relating to migration, sale of state enterprises, and the removal of the wall on the border with Belarus. A cursory look at these issues provides a template to analyse the most critical issues impacting this election and what turf the ruling party wants to play.
For the opposition, the Civic Platform has provided 100 alternatives to the voters against the Law and Justice Party. It focuses on women’s rights in abortions and in vitro fertilisation as fundamental rights. LGTBQ+ rights include the right to same-sex marriage. It has also made a big issue where the Polish authorities are accused of selling off Schengen visas to immigrants despite the ruling party’s anti-immigrant rhetoric.
The Law and Justice Party brands the opposition leader, Donald Tusk, a German pawn and an EU person. It is important to note that the populist parties have thrived on creating a divide between the cosmopolitan Europhile political elite and the ‘common people’ they claim to represent. By doing this, the EU becomes an easy target, and so are the parties endorsing it.
What changes can one expect in Europe through these elections?
This year, too, Europe has seen a populist surge where in Italy, Brothers of Italy has won. Spain, one of Europe’s staunch left bastions, has also developed a rightward shift but not in the wake of the populist surge. In the recent elections in Poland’s neighbourhood, Slovakia, another populist Eurosceptic leader has won. However, there is a trend among the populist parties after Brexit. These parties develop their mobilisation based on Euroscepticism. Still, they do not call for referendums against the EU when they come to power and most of them mellow down their criticism against the bloc. However, this does not mean that anything stops these parties in the concerned states from tweaking the rule of law or does not play by the book. As these parties are coming to power in critical states, it is easy to control the European Union’s punitive measures against them as the other supports one.
Since 2015, the Law and Justice Party of Poland and Fidesz of Hungary saved each other like this in European high politics. If the Law and Justice Party gets defeated, it will be the first severe blow to populist parties in the region. It will also make Viktor Orban of Hungary rethink his ideological brainchild of ‘illiberal democracy’, which he sells to solve the troubles in liberal democracies. However, if the Law and Justice Party wins the Polish election for the third time, it will create more problems for the EU regarding the rule of law. Poland will have difficulties releasing the pandemic recovery funds, which are essential for its economy. The Law and Justice Party’s hardline nationalism can severely damage its relations with Germany, which is not just one of the engines of the EU but one of the topmost trading partners of Poland.
As war is present on European soil, it will be a uniting factor for the European world against Russia. For Poland, this case becomes particular because of its historical memory of enmity with Russia during the Soviet empire or before it. However, the result of this election will have a long-term impact on European politics, which will answer the questions of core European values: national or supra-national, liberal or illiberal.
Author is Doctoral Candidate, Centre for European Studies, SIS, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
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