By Ravi Singh
Google co-founder Sergey Brin recently returned to work at Google headquarters after years of absence. He is reportedly working on the ambitious AI project called Gemini which is being speculated as a rival to ChatGPT. After the launch of ChatGPT, Google is trying to up the ante in the AI business. Brin and Larry Page, Google’s co-founders, transformed the landscape of internet search in 1998, outshining competitors such as Yahoo, which was never able to regain its former standing. Now, Big Tech companies find themselves in a similar competitive race to stay ahead of the rapid advancements in AI.
The AI industry has seen a flurry of major developments within one week. Meta has offered its large language model, Llama (analogous to OpenAI’s GPT-4), to developers for free. This has significantly intensified the AI race. Twitter has rebranded to “X” with the objective of becoming a comprehensive AI super app, akin to what WeChat is today. The CEO of X emphasised the company’s vision, describing X as “the future state of unlimited interactivity”. Sam Altman, co-founder of OpenAI, launched a new cryptocurrency named Worldcoin to differentiate AI-generated content from human-produced ones. The cryptocurrency employs a unique device, an orb, to create a proof of personhood via a unique digital identity. This identity is generated by scanning individuals’ eyes. People have already started lining up to use this orb device. Google has also experimented with an AI tool that can write news articles, a significant advancement considering that a significant share of ad revenue comes from news websites.
We currently find ourselves in the middle of a technological race that is set to become even more fiercely competitive. The pace of growth is so rapid that what seems like a ground-breaking technology today may get obsolete in months, just like the way mobile phones ruined the pager industry in 1990s. The technological breakthroughs in this process are likely to disrupt a wide range of sectors such as healthcare, education, finance, and mobility. This race is not merely about who gets to the top first, but also about survival. After all, history has taught us that tech companies which don’t innovate consistently and adapt to changing times can crumble like a stack of cards.
In the 1970s, Xerox had developed technologies like the graphical user interface, the computer mouse, and ethernet networking, but it failed to commercialise these innovations effectively. This allowed other companies, like Apple and Microsoft, to capitalise on these technologies and dominate the personal computing industry. BlackBerry, once a leader in smartphones, was unable to recognise the importance of touch screen interfaces and third-party apps, giving away its market share to Apple’s iPhone and Google’s Android platform. Yahoo used to be the front page of internet, but could not maintain its relevance after Google search became popular. Similarly, Nokia, which was once the largest vendor of mobile phones, failed to adapt to the rise of smartphones.
On the other hand, numerous instances demonstrate that large tech companies that effectively shifted their strategies to meet changing demands have not only survived but have also achieved greater levels of success. Microsoft was able to successfully change its business model to incorporate cloud computing and subscription services from being solely focused on personal computers. Initially a computer company, Apple pivoted to include consumer electronics and related software and services. The launch of the iPod, followed by the iPhone and then the iPad revolutionised the consumer electronic industry. Amazon began as an online book seller, but it swiftly grew to sell a wide range of goods, effectively turning into a one-stop online shopping centre. Additionally, it successfully entered the cloud computing market with Amazon Web Services (AWS), which now accounts for a sizeable amount of the business’ earnings and revenue. IBM successfully transitioned to a business model centred on software and services after first being known for their hardware, particularly mainframe computers. Through investments in cutting-edge technology like Watson’s AI and cloud services, it has continued to develop.
In light of this, it will be intriguing to observe whether the BigTech firms can keep up with the innovations in AI and translate them into commercial success. Given their vast resources, they are set to continue substantial investments in AI and Machine Learning, cloud computing and data privacy. However, as the winds of change blow, these trajectories could alter course due to unexpected technological breakthroughs, changes in regulations, shifts in societal attitudes or other unforeseen factors. This is a great opportunity for Indian entrepreneurs. The Bill Gates and Steve Jobs of the AI era could be Indians.
Furthermore, these changes will have substantial ripple effects on the job market, potentially redefining the skills and roles in demand. These are challenging times for these companies’ leadership, as their vision, decision-making ability, and a dash of fortune will be instrumental in shaping their future prospects. Would they go the way of Xerox or IBM, only time will tell.
The author is an IRS officer
Views are personal