Shaily Engineering Plastics is trending higher, green as UBS initiated coverage on the company with a Buy rating. The brokerage house has set Rs 4,000 per share as target price, pointing to about 60% upside from its current price. According to UBS, Shaily is moving into a phase where healthcare becomes the core driver of growth, backed by injector demand for generic GLP-1 drugs and capacity that ramps sharply over FY25–30.
Shaily Engineering share price trend
While UBS built its valuation on long-term earnings, the recent share movement has been volatile. Shaily Engineering’s share price has declined around 8.65% over the past five days as investors react to broader small-cap swings. Over longer windows, the trend reverses: the stock moved up 31.75% over the last six months. Additionally, it has given a return of 73.81% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis and has gained around 129.92% over the past year. Meanwhile, the stock has give a return of around 476% in last 5 years, making itself a multibagger stock.
UBS on Shaily Engineering: GLP-1 injector market creates the upside
The core of the UBS thesis is Shaily’s positioning ahead of semaglutide patent expiry in 2026. UBS modelled injector demand at a country level and estimated that Shaily’s potential market could reach Rs 6,768 crore in India, Rs 986 crore in Canada, and Rs 2,634 crore in Brazil by 2030 under its base assumptions.
UBS expects Shaily to secure 50–60% share of this generics wave because injector vendors are usually written into regulatory filings, which makes switching costly and time-consuming for pharmaceutical clients. Shaily is tied into filings for 23–24 global pharma companies, according to the report. This degree of embedding, UBS said, explains why the company has line of sight to high-volume launches once generics hit the market.
Scenario modelling from UBS shows healthcare revenue CAGR at 73% in the base case for FY25–30. EBITDA CAGR varies from 29% (low case) to 59% (high case) depending on adoption rates and unit realisations.
UBS on Shaily Engineering: Healthcare key driver
UBS described Shaily as a precision plastics manufacturer with three verticals consumer, industrial and healthcare and said the healthcare business will be the decisive growth driver. The brokerage expects a 75% EPS CAGR over FY25–28, powered by the scale-up of injector devices for generic GLP-1 therapies. In FY25, healthcare revenue is estimated at Rs 164.7 crore, but UBS expects the segment to become more than half of total sales by FY28 as new lines enter production.
UBS said the market is not fully recognising the impact of mix change, especially as healthcare typically carries higher margins and steadier utilisation patterns once contracts stabilise.
UBS on Shaily Engineering: Revenue, margins and EPS expectations
UBS expects consolidated revenue to rise to Rs 1,080.9 crore in FY26 from Rs 786.8 crore in FY25, and climb further to Rs 2,258.1 crore in FY28. EBITDA is expected to expand sharply as healthcare’s share increases, reaching Rs 750 crore in FY28, with margins moving into the low-to-mid 30% range.
EPS, too, is expected to scale quickly: from Rs 20.23 in FY25 to Rs 71.50 in FY27, and Rs 108.37 in FY28. UBS used a 45x PE on average FY27–28 earnings to set the Rs 4,000 target. The brokerage said margin expansion comes naturally when higher-value healthcare work absorbs a bigger portion of plant capacity.
UBS on Shaily Engineering: consumer and industrial remain important
While healthcare drives the upside, UBS said the consumer business should still grow at 19% CAGR over FY25–28 as home furnishing and personal care projects scale up. The industrial vertical is expected to grow at 16–17% CAGR, supported by lightweighting trends in appliances and automotive components where engineered plastics replace metals.
UBS on Shaily Engineering: Technical capability as a competitive moat
UBS noted that Shaily holds ISO 13485, ISO 15378, MDSAP and complies with FDA 21 CFR 820 and India’s MDR requirements. These certifications are essential for supplying global pharma companies and create an entry barrier for new players. Shaily also supplies global OEMs such as IKEA and P&G, which UBS said reflects long-standing compliance and quality discipline across consumer and industrial categories.
In healthcare specifically, only a handful of global players have the scale and approvals to supply high-volume GLP-1 devices, so competition is structurally limited.
UBS on Shaily Engineering: Valuation and what the market is pricing
UBS valued Shaily at Rs 4,000, implying about 60% upside from the price in its note. UBS acknowledged that Shaily already trades at about 40x one-year forward PE, higher than its three-year average, but said the multiple is justified because the company is shifting rapidly toward high-margin healthcare revenue.
UBS on Shaily Engineering: Key risks to watch
UBS listed several risks that could affect the thesis:
- Delays in generic semaglutide launches,
- Lower-than-expected injector realisations,
- Regulatory delays affecting partner filings,
- Faster price cuts once generics scale,
- Execution risk on capacity expansion.
The brokerage also mentioned the possibility of losing clients in consumer or industrial verticals, though it said such risks are lower given Shaily’s track record.
