The Reliance Industries share price hit a fresh 52-week low on July 24 and if we track the stock’s performance in 2026 so far, it is down almost 19%. In fact, the share price is trading around the same level it was at last April. Is it the right time to buy this Mukesh Ambani-owned company at current levels?
Though it hit a 52-week high of Rs 1,611 in early January this year, the share price failed to sustain momentum at those levels. From late 2022 to this July, the index heavyweight has been trading in a rather tight range. The wild swing in crude prices has further added to the concerns. A quick check reveals the share price has hovered pretty much around these levels in the last few years.
Should you buy Reliance Industries now?
The big question at the moment – is it the opportune moment to enter the stock, or should investors wait even further? Financialexpress.com caught up with some leading market experts for a detailed analysis –
Deven R Choksey, Founder and MD of DRChoksey Finserv pointed out that ,”I think since the market is neglecting the stock because the Indian market is not in a favourable position for most of the global trade investors, that is why this is available at a neglected valuation.”
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services believes that after Q1 results, “there is a big change now that the company delivered a better-than-expected quarter. We saw consolidated EBITDA growth of 11% YoY and 8% QoQ and was also ahead of our expectations largely due to good recovery in the energy business, which is both the oil-to-chemicals as well as the exploration and oil-production business. Finally, we have seen that the company is reporting strong Q1 numbers. In the last 2-3 quarters, numbers were quite subdued; hence, the stock was not participating.”
Choksey reiterated the point on growth across RIL’s key businesses, “Fundamentals remain absolutely strong and very buoyant. Each of the consumer-facing businesses, which should be fetching a higher amount of valuation hereafter, is also doing extremely well.”
RIL: O2C & energy recover as quick commerce weighs on retail
Reliance Industries maintained that “robust cash flows and balance sheet strength will support growth – New Energy, DCs and Digital Commerce.”
According to Motilal Oswal’s Khemka, “Jio continued to show steady growth while retail was the only segment which kind of disappointed, where margins remained under pressure as the company continued to make aggressive investments in the hyper-local grocery business. Overall, if you look at the results, it kind of reinforces our investment case that Reliance is transitioning from an energy-led earnings company to a digital and consumer platform company.”
Choksey is betting big on Jio’s growth prospects too. “I think Jio platform is the star of the lot and is actually doing extremely well. For a company of that size to target doubling the size in the next 3 and a half to 4 years is rare,” he added.
Reliance Industries: FY27 business outlook
Reliance Industries reported a strong set of Q1 numbers. It clocked 25% revenue growth in Q1 with strong double-digit growth across O2C, digital services and retail. The company recorded the highest-ever quarterly recurring EBITDA. From O2C to Jio Platforms, the EBITDA performance remained stand out number across verticals.
RIL’s EBITDA rose 17% YoY and its margins are “strong currently, with war-related impact on refining infrastructure in the Middle East and Russia (40% of refining capacity damaged),” Jefferies noted.
According to the international brokerage house, “physical crude premiums, high freight rates, and windfall taxes on refined products from its DTA refinery weigh on margin capture.” They believe that, “petrochemical feedstock supplies from the Middle East are yet to normalise, supporting improvement in petchem spreads in FY27. We expect 14% YoY EBITDA growth in O2C in FY27.”
Another international brokerage house Nomura, pointed out that Reliance Industries is riding the “energy tailwinds. The consolidated EBITDA beat our estimates, led by O2C and upstream.”
RIL: Retail growth below estimates in Q1
However, the retail business had some pain points in comparison. Many analysts pointed out that the retail growth is a key monitorable going forward. Reliance Retail’s Q1 gross revenue was down 8% QoQ and EBITDA was down 9% QoQ “with gross margin at 7%, in line with our estimate. The management expects margin pressure to continue over the next 3-4 quarters given investments in quick commerce,” Nomura explained.
Jefferies too highlighted how the “retail business missed our estimates. Margin declined YoY, largely due to investments in hyperlocal to drive digital commerce share. Mgmt framed FY27 as a “foundation year”, prioritising customer quality, repeat rates & unit economics.”
They added that “while EBITDA growth should trail revenue growth in the near-term, management guides to 2x EBITDA over 3 years.”
Jio DRHP filing & valuation multiples: What makes analysts bullish on RIL?
The other big trigger for RIL is decidedly the upcoming Jio IPO. The company has filed its DRHP with SEBI and this telecom IPO could potentially be one of the largest in India. Siddharth Khemka believes that, “Overall, long-term, our view remains positive. The biggest trigger that continues to remain is the Jio platform IPO, that could be a near-term trigger. And the other factor is that the new-age businesses, their large capex now seems to be behind, which has been another factor for the stocks and the performance of the business because a bulk of capex was being done in the new energy segment.”
The valuation that the stock is currently available at is also making the street positive. Nomura pointed out that “stock currently trades at 9.1x/ 17.7x FY28 EV/EBITDA and P/E.” As per Emkay, they value RIL’s “core segments on June 2028 EV/EBITDA and new energy/other segments on EV-IC/EV-EBITDA.”
Deven Choksey too added that the current valuations make the stock very attractive, “Because it is available at these valuations, I think our comfort level remains very high to buy.”
Jefferies is basing its investment thesis for RIL on a “sustainable competitive advantage on scale economics, cost leadership, and financial strength. Rs 6 trillion free cash flow invested in consumer businesses has created Rs 18 trillion in equity value. New growth engines with large addressable markets include Q-comm in Reliance Retail and the New Energy business.”
Conclusion
Overall, most analysts are bullish on RIL on the basis of the management commentary and the valuation at which the stock is available now. They believe that the levels at which the stock is trading now offer favourable risk-reward. However, the retail business is a key moniterable going forward, and commodity price swings would remain a core risk to watch out for.
Disclaimer: The stock commentary, expert opinions, and brokerage views presented in this article are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Investments in the equity market are subject to market risks, and past performance or analyst valuations are not indicative of future results. Readers are strongly advised to conduct their own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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