BSE’s share price fell 2.5% to as much as 2,382.30 on the National Stock Exchange. The brokerage houses are concerned that the expiry shift will impact the exchange’s trading volume and premium to turnover. However, the brokers have maintained their ratings.
Motilal Oswal on BSE: BSE to lose premium turnover if weekly expiry shifts
Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects BSE to lose 300-400 basis points of premium turnover market share once the weekly expiry shifts to Thursday from Tuesday currently. Although the company’s management said that the expiry shift to Thursday from Tuesday was decided after feedback from market participants, and no negative impact on premium realisation is expected.
The brokerage house said that any further regulatory moves to curb retail activity in F&O can impact volumes for the exchange.
The brokerage raised earnings estimates by 7% each for FY26 and FY27 to adjust for lower clearing house costs and income from colocation. However, the brokerage maintained its ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 2,600, implying an upside potential of 6%.
The positive factor in favour of the exchange is that BSE platforms continue to be the preferred choice for Indian companies to raise capital, facilitating Rs 7.6 lakh crore through equity, debt, bonds, commercial papers, mutual funds, etc. Common Contract Note has been successfully implemented in India with effect from 27th June 2025, enabling institutional investors to trade seamlessly across trading venues.
Nuvama on BSE: Expiry swap to drop premium
While July 2025 Average Daily Premium Traded Volume (ADPTV) reduced 10.2% MoM due to lower implied volatilities, Nuvama Institutional Equities estimates that the expiry swap, which is expected to start from September 2025, would result in a drop in BSE’s ADPTV and premium to notional turnover.
“We are reducing FY26/27/28 net profit by 3.1%/6.2%/6%,” said Nuvama. The brokerage house still raised the target price to Rs 2,820 from Rs 2,770, implying an upside of 15.5%, due to the value of a 15% stake in CDSL.
BSE reported Q1FY26 index options ADPTV market share of 23.8%, which was up 241 bps sequentially. This drove up revenue 57.7% YoY and 13.2% QoQ. Operating leverage drove EBITDA margin higher by 1,859 bps YoY and 812 bps QoQ to 65.3%.
BSE stock performance
The share price of BSE has fallen 2% in the last five trading sessions. The stock has erased over 3% of investors’ wealth in the past one month. However, BSE’s stock price has given a return of 28% in the last six months and gave mutlibagger return of 177% in the past one year.