Rollovers for the February to March series on Thursday were slightly on the lower side in percentage terms but higher in terms of absolute interest on the back of sustained buying from foreign institutional investors (FIIs). FIIs have purchased shares worth $5.5 billion in the year to date compared with net sales of $1.6 billion in the same period last year.
Rollover in Nifty contracts was about 67.5%, about 2% lower than the 3-month average and 6% below the previous month. However, market-wide rollovers were healthy at 82%.
?Towards the expiry, profit booking was seen across frontline and mid-cap stocks. Rollover in Nifty is at 67%, suggesting lack of aggression in carrying forward positions,? said Sahaj Agrawal, associate vice president- derivatives, Kotak Securities.
Most of the sectors, particularly capital goods and sugar, saw healthy rollovers. Among individual stocks, HUL and Bharti Airtel saw dismal rolls. ?Profit booking was seen in several high beta stocks. We expect the market to trade with a positive bias until 5,420 is breached on the downside,? said Ketan Karkhanis, VP ? active trading, ICICI Securities.
According to market participants, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) rolled over their long positions during this expiry. ?This indicates that overseas investors are still bullish and expect further upside,? said Siddarth Bhamre, head-derivatves, Angel Broking. However, he added, that several other market participants were a bit bearish and had rolled over their short positions.
Indian equities have risen more than 18% on the back of inflows from foreign funds helped by monetary easing policies by the European Central Bank, strengthening of the rupee euro against the US dollar and easing concerns over India?s headline inflation.
Market participants expect the market to be rangebound going forward. The downside is likely to be around 5,300 since the level saw a good number of puts with open interest. On the upside, Bhamre has set a tentative target of 5,700 and feels the market may go higher if it breaches this level.
?Further upside is expected only if the index manages to sustain above 5,600. Breach of 5,375 is expected to invite selling,? added Agrawal.