Maharashtra Exit Poll Results 2024 Highlights: Pollsters predict advantage for Mahayuti, setback for MVA

According to Axis My India, the vote share of Mahayuti is expected to be around 48%, while the vote share of MVA is predicted to be 37%.

According to Axis My India exit poll predictions, Eknath Shinde is the most preferred CM in Maharashtra. From the MVA alliance, Uddhav Thackeray is the most preferred CM. While Shinde received 31% votes, Thackeray got 18% votes.

The CVoter Exit Polls have projected 112 seats for the NDA, 104 seats for INDIA bloc and 11 seats for others. The post-poll survey also highlighted that out of the total seats in Maharashtra, 61 were too close to call.

The C-Voter has predicted that the NDA will get 41% vote share in the recently-concluded Maharashtra Assembly polls, INDIA bloc will get 40% and others with get 19% vote share.

The latest exit poll released today forecasts that the Mahayuti alliance will secure 48% of the vote share in Maharashtra, while the opposition MVA is projected to garner 37%.

Maha Yuti (NDA)

BJP: 98–107 seats

SHS (Shinde): 53–58 seats

NCP (Ajit Pawar): 25–30 seats

JSS/RSVA/RYSP: 2–5 seats

Total Seats for Maha Yuti: 178–200

Vote Share: 48%

Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)

Congress: 28–36 seats

SHS (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray): 26–32 seats

NCP (Sharad Pawar): 26–30 seats

SP/PWPI: 2–4 seats

Total Seats for MVA: 82–102

Vote Share: 37%

Others: 6-12 seats

Here’s a detailed prediction of Axis My India exit polls:

Axis My India’s prediction for the Maharashtra Assembly polls projects the BJP-led Mahayuti securing 178-200 seats, the MVA winning 80-102 seats, and Others claiming 6-12 seats.

Shiv Sena (UBT) Sanjay Raut Raut rejected the exit polls, labeling them as a ‘fraud’. He asserted that the MVA would form the government and secure 160 seats.
“Exit polls in this country are a fraud. We saw the ‘400 paar’ data of exit polls during the Lok Sabha elections. We saw Congress crossing 60 in Haryana elections,” Raut said.

Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut predicted that the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) would win 160 to 165 seats out of the total 288, forming a stable government in the state.

Raut, a Rajya Sabha member, also announced that MVA leaders would meet on Thursday, ahead of the vote counting scheduled for Saturday. While most exit polls predicted a win for the BJP-led alliance, some suggested the MVA coalition had an edge. Raut claimed that MVA and its allies, including smaller parties like the PWP, Samajwadi Party, and Left parties, would cross the majority mark.

When questioned about exit polls predicting a win for the BJP-led alliance in Maharashtra, with some favoring the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition, Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said it is party spokespersons, not leaders, who comment on exit polls.

Mumbai police on Thursday issued an order banning any gatherings within a 300-meter radius of all 36 counting centers in the city. The order follows Wednesday’s election for the 288-member Maharashtra assembly, with votes set to be counted on Saturday. Mumbai has 36 assembly constituencies.

No person, other than election officials or public servants on duty, will be allowed to loiter or gather within the 300-meter perimeter of any counting center. The restriction is in effect from 6 AM on November 21 until midnight on November 24.

Although most exit polls have predicted victory for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra, the poll predictions of the CVoter and Axis My India is still awaited.

Exit poll by P-MARQ in Maharashtra projected the NDA to win between 137 and 157 seats, while the INDIA bloc’s MVA was predicted to secure between 126 and 146 seats, with others gaining 2 to 8 seats.

The Electoral Edge exit poll forecasted a victory for the MVA with 150 seats, while the BJP-led Mahayuti was predicted to win 121 seats, and others were expected to secure 20 seats.

Meanwhile, exit polls by Poll Diary suggested the NDA could win between 122 and 186 seats, with the MVA securing 69 to 121 seats, and others gaining between 12 and 29 seats.

The Matrize exit poll predicted that the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance would win between 150 and 170 seats in Maharashtra. It forecasted that the Congress and its allies would secure between 110 and 130 seats, with others winning 8 to 10 seats. Meanwhile, the People’s Pulse exit poll projected a strong showing for the NDA’s Mahayuti, with an expected 175 to 195 seats, while the MVA would win between 85 and 112 seats, and others would secure 7 to 12 seats.

The JVC-TimesNow poll, however, predicted the BJP-led alliance would win 159 seats, with the MVA securing 116 and others winning 13 seats.

Pradeep Gupta, Chairman and Managing Editor of Axis My India announced that the exit poll predictions will be announced today at 6 30 PM.

Analysts attribute Maharashtra’s higher turnout to intense campaigning by the ruling Mahayuti coalition and the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). This rise in voter engagement could play a pivotal role in what is expected to be a close contest.

During the Lok Sabha elections, the Mahayuti coalition—comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena, and NCP—secured 42.71% of the vote share. In contrast, the MVA alliance of Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) garnered a slightly higher share at 43.91%.

Maharashtra witnessed a surge in voter participation during Wednesday’s elections, with turnout figures crossing 65.1% by 11:45 pm — the highest since 1995, when the state recorded 71.69% turnout. This marks a significant rise compared to the 61.39% turnout in this year’s Lok Sabha elections and 61.4% in the 2019 Assembly polls.

After polling concluded for the 288 constituencies in Maharashtra’s state assembly elections on Wednesday evening, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis met Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat in Nagpur. Sources speculate that the meeting was a gesture of gratitude for the RSS’s involvement in the BJP’s door-to-door campaigns during the election.

Confirming the visit, senior party sources said, “Fadnavis personally visited the RSS headquarters in Nagpur’s Mahal area and held a brief meeting with Bhagwat.” Details of the discussion remain undisclosed, but insiders from the RSS suggested the meeting was a courtesy call to acknowledge the organisation’s critical role in mobilising support for the BJP during the campaign.

Most exit polls have predicted win for the Mahayuti alliance.

According to Peoples Pulse, incumbent Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is the preferred CM, if Mahayuti comes to power.

He is followed by Uddhav Thackeray and Devendra Fadnavis. While Shinde got 35.8% people rooting for him, Thackeray and Fadnavis received 21.7% and 11.7% votes respectively.

They are followed by Ajit Pawar, who received 2.3% votes, and Congress‘ Nana Patole got 1.3% votes, according to People’s Pulse.

On exit polls, NCP-SCP leader Clyde Crasto says, “These are exit polls, we saw what happened in Haryana. Exit polls show something else and the final result is something else.. the truth is ground reality is different…As of now what we have seen, it is an even fight…we have an edge.”

Union Minister and RPI(A) chief Ramdas Athawale expressed confidence that the Mahayuti will get a clear majority with 160-165 seats.

As exit polls predict Mahayuti win, Union Minister Ramdas Athawale said, “Over the past 10 years, under Prime Minister Modi’s leadership, Maharashtra has received at least Rs 10 lakh crore from the central government. The state has greatly benefited from the central government’s schemes. Also, decisions made by the government of Eknath Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis, and Ajit Pawar in the last 2.5 years will further benefit the Mahayuti alliance.”

Sudarshan News’ exit poll has predicted a return to power for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra. The projected seat distribution for Mahayuti includes the BJP winning between 85 and 95 seats, Shiv Sena securing 38 to 42 seats, and the NCP capturing 25 to 30 seats. On the other hand, the exit poll estimates the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance will secure between 99 and 114 seats. Within this, the Congress is expected to win 45 to 50 seats, Shiv Sena (UBT) is projected to capture 28 to 33 seats, and NCP (SP) is forecasted to win between 26 and 31 seats.

A survey conducted by Delhi University’s Centre for Global Studies (CGS) has predicted electoral victories for the Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra

P-MARQ Survey:

Mahayuti: 137–157 seats

MVA: 126–146 seats

Others: 2–8 seats

People’s Pulse Survey:
Mahayuti: 175–195 seats

MVA: 85–112 seats

Others: 7–12 seats

Matrize Survey

Mahayuti: 150–170 seats

MVA: 110–130 seats

The Mahayuti alliance of the BJP, Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, and the Nationalist Congress Party led by Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, campaigned on the strength of popular initiatives like the Majhi Ladki Bahin scheme for women, aiming to retain power.

The MVA alliance of the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (led by Sharad Pawar) focused on key issues such as a caste-based census, social justice, and safeguarding the Constitution.

Polling in Maharashtra was marred by incidents of vandalism and clashes between rival party supporters in several areas.

In Parli and Beed districts, tensions flared as supporters of opposing parties clashed. In Nandgaon assembly constituency of Nashik, a violent confrontation broke out between Shiv Sena candidate Suhas Kande and independent candidate Sameer Bhujbal.

In Parli constituency, where Ajit Pawar’s NCP candidate Dhananjay Munde is contesting, a polling booth was vandalized after an assault on Madhav Jadhav, a local leader of the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP). The attack, which went viral on social media, prompted a group of people to enter the Ghatnandur polling booth, damage furniture, and throw the EVM on the ground.

Beed Collector Avinash Pathak confirmed that the EVMs were replaced and voting resumed, with the data from the earlier EVMs safely stored for counting.

Further, NCP (SP) candidate Rajesaheb Deshmukh alleged that a CCTV camera was disabled at a polling booth in Dharmapuri, Parli. In Nashik district, a malfunctioning Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) in the Nandgaon assembly constituency caused a brief delay for voters who had already received indelible ink marks. The issue was quickly resolved, and voting continued.

Here’s what exit polls predictions are:

Lokshahi Marathi – Rudra: Mahayuti – 128-142, MVA – 125-140

Electoral Edge: Mahayuti – 117-118, MVA – 149-150

P-Marq: Mahayuti – 137-157, MVA – 126-146