Dealing a major setback to talks of Opposition unity which saw 26 parties unite to form the INDIA alliance for the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party has decided to contest the Bihar Assembly elections scheduled for 2025.

The success of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance hinges on regional heavyweights getting precedence over their national counterparts in key states. AAP’s decision could change that and much more.

On Saturday, Aam Aadmi Party general secretary Sandeep Pathak convened a meeting of its organisational leaders from Bihar in Delhi where it was decided that the party would contest the upcoming polls in the state. The meeting also saw discussions on strengthening the party organisation in the state where AAP is yet to make any inroads.

AAP announces Bihar foray

According to news agency ANI, Pathak addressed party leaders from its Bihar unit and stressed on the need to strengthen AAP’s organisational unit in the state to contest elections.

“We will contest elections in Bihar, but the party will decide when. We cannot enter elections in Bihar directly and we need to strengthen our organisation before we contest elections. We will have to form committees in each village. We must start working hard now to strengthen and expand our organisation for elections. Once our organisation is strong, we will contest elections and win too,” Pathak said at the meeting.

What did Amit Shah predict in Parliament?

Ironically, Union Home minister Amit Shah had in a way predicted the development earlier this month in Parliament. The AAP had galvanised support from the Opposition, including the Congress, against the Centre’s Delhi services bill that handed Centre the control over bureaucrats in the national capital.

AAP had promised its support to the INDIA bloc on the condition that it received backing from the Congress on the contentious bill in the Rajya Sabha, where the BJP lacks a majority. Kejriwal had even threatened to back out of the second meeting of the united Opposition that was held in Bengaluru last month if the Congress did not promise to oppose the Bill in the Upper House.

While the Bill was passed with NDA receiving support from neutral parties such as the Biju Janata Dal and the YSR Congress Party, Amit Shah had some interesting observations to make on the fate of the AAP in the INDIA alliance during the discussion on the proposed amendments.

“I want to tell Congress that after this bill (on Delhi services) is passed, they (AAP) are not going to enter into any alliance with you,” he said, appealing to Opposition MPs to “think about Delhi, not the alliance”. He also predicted that the AAP would ditch the INDIA alliance once the Delhi Services Bill is passed in Parliament.

AAP vs INDIA?

The AAP is part of the 26-party alliance that was formed with the intent to stop the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance from coming to power at the Centre for a third successive term. Ironically, the AAP’s declaration of its Bihar foray comes just days ahead of the third meeting of the INDIA bloc scheduled for August 31 and September 1.

The choice of Bihar is also crucial because, besides West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Rashtriya Janata Dal supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav have been Kejriwal’s biggest backers within the Opposition. Another notable fact is that it was Nitish who spearheaded the mission to unite diverse Opposition parties and is seen as the architect of the INDIA bloc that brings these 26 parties under one umbrella.

The united Opposition first met in Patna on June 23 while the second meeting, which saw the alliance decide on its name, was held on July 17-18 in Bengaluru. The third meeting of the alliance is now expected to be held on August 31 and September 1.