Lok Sabha Election: As the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections draws near, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP seem to be enjoying an edge over rivals. Despite several unpopular decisions such as a disastrous demonetisation and hasty GST rollout, the prime minister still enjoys unrivalled popularity among Indian politicians including Congress president Rahul Gandhi. Here are the five factors that helped Modi retain his popularity among masses.
1. Modi’s track record as an able administrator
During his five year stint, the prime minister successfully implemented several big ticket reforms such as financial inclusion through nearly 30 crore Jan Dhan Accounts, implementation of pan-India common goods and service (GST) tax to turn the country into one nation one market, Ujjwala Scheme to distribute 8 crore LPG cylinders, Ayushman Bharat to provide health coverage to 50 crore poor people, among others. PM Modi often talks about how the speed of executing crucial infrastructure related projects be it roads, railways or ports, have doubled in comparison with UPA.
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2. Tough stand against terrorism and Pakistan
Several surveys conducted after Indian Air Force bombing of Balakot terror camps in Pakistan suggested that the odds of re-election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi improved perceptibly as strong nationalistic feelings gripped the nation following the audacious suicide bomb attack on CRPF convoy in Pulwama. BJP has always advocated a muscular policy toward arch enemy Pakistan. Two tough decisions taken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi: surgical strikes after Uri attack and preemptive airstrike on Jaish terror camps in Pakistan have reinforced his image as a strong leader. It is clear that the party will try to take electoral advantage of of nationalistic sentiments by projecting the Prime Minister as a strong and decisive leader.
3. Congress not a viable alternative at pan-India level
Among all the opposition parties, the Congress has a unique position of one of the two parties with a PAN India presence in the country after the ruling BJP. All other opposition parties like Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool in West Bengal, Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugdesam in Andhra Pradesh, Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar, K Chandrashekar Rao led Telangana Rashtra Samithi in Telangana and Biju Janata Dal in Odisha are basically state specific parties.
Though the Congress has defeated BJP in a direct contest in three Hindi heartland states of Rajashtan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh late last year, still the party is not seen as a viable alternative to the BJP at pan-India level in this Lok Sabha election as Indian voters tend to exhibit different preference in Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections.
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4. Opposition a divided house
Unlike NDA, where BJP is firmly in control as a dominant ruling party, the opposition parties in the country are divided in three distinct blocs: Congress led UPA that has RJD as the lead partner in Bihar, NCP in Maharashtra and DMK in Tamil Nadu, but these alliance partners give a tough time to Congress in seat sharing deals. And despite hectic parleys, SP-BSP firmly shut the door for a formal pre-poll alliance with Congress in India’s most populous state Uttar Pradesh that sends maximum 80 members in 543 member Lok Sabha.
The move by SP-BSP to keep the door shut for Congress in UP and other states suggests that these two leaders Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati will not give a field day to the Congress party in any post poll calculation. It will be impossible for any opposition grouping to ignore the combined might of SP-BSP if the BJP weakens in Uttar Pradesh.
Then there is a third front as Telangana chief minister K Chandrashekar Rao was working to stitch a non-BJP, non-Congress opposition. However, except two strong regional parties, TRS in Telangana and BJD in Odisha, most of the other opposition parties have taken their stand with either ruling NDA or opposition UPA in this election.
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5. Alleged Corruption in Rafale deal not an election issue
Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s attempt to make alleged corruption in Rafale fighter jet deal a poll issue has not succeeded despite sharp attacks on the Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Rahul Gandhi has used strong words against Prime Minister Modi accusing him of personally favouring ADAG chief Anil Ambani in award of offset contracts for multi-billion dollar defence deal. However, three things have gone against Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party: Supreme Court’s refusal to order an inquiry into the deal; a shrill debate in the Lok Sabha where defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman gave a point by point rebuttal to Rahul Gandhi’s allegations and finally the declaration by the country’s apex auditor body – Comptroller and Auditor General’s (CAG) – that per unit price paid by NDA for 36 Rafale jets in flyaway condition was indeed cheaper by 2.6% than the price negotiated under the UPA government under the MMRCA deal for 126 jets with Make in India option.