The 20th Round of Talks: Aspirations and Expectations For Sino-Indian Border Dispute Resolution

By Lt Col Manoj K Channan, Veteran

The 20th round of talks between India and China, held on October 9-10, 2023, marked a significant step in the ongoing efforts to resolve the border dispute along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). These talks have garnered attention not only for their implications in the context of Sino-Indian relations but also in light of the broader global geopolitical landscape. In this article, we delve into the outcomes of the 20th round of talks and explore the motivations behind

China’s approach to the border issue

We also assess the economic challenges faced by China and their potential impact on the border dispute. Additionally, we emphasize the importance of vigilance and monitoring in ensuring the enforcement of agreements reached during these discussions.

Understanding the Significance

The border dispute between India and China has persisted for decades and has witnessed periodic flare-ups. The LAC, a de facto border, has been a source of tension, with both countries staking territorial claims. Against this backdrop, the 20th round of talks assumes great significance for several reasons:

Geo-Political Landscape

The talks come at a time when the world is grappling with multiple geopolitical crises, including the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the tensions between Hamas and Israel. The containment of a third flare-up in the Himalayas is crucial in avoiding further destabilization in an already turbulent global scenario.

China’s Internal Power Dynamics

Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power within China has been a subject of international interest. The removal of presidential term limits in 2018 allowed him to potentially remain in power indefinitely. However, recent developments, such as Xi’s absence from international summits, suggest possible opposition within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), particularly from figures like Premier Li Keqiang and Wang Yang.

China’s Economic Challenges

China faces economic challenges, including slower-than-expected retail sales and industrial production growth. Despite steady GDP growth, the economy remains shaky due to weak consumer and business demand. The emphasis on economic stability, high-quality growth, and countercyclical policies underscores the need for maintaining regional stability, including along the LAC.

Economic Challenges and Their Impact

China’s economic challenges, as evidenced by slower retail sales and industrial production growth, can have implications for the border dispute.

GDP Growth Targets

China has set a modest annual GDP growth target of around 5 percent for 2023. Meeting this target is crucial for the government’s economic stability goals and could further encourage a peaceful approach to the border issue.

Service Sector Emphasis

The reliance on the service sector for economic growth underscores the importance of regional stability. Disruptions in border areas could impact trade and commerce, affecting China’s service sector.

Countercyclical Policies

The need for strong countercyclical policies indicates China’s commitment to maintaining long-term economic stability. A peaceful border is aligned with these policy objectives.

Structural Reforms

Structural reforms are vital for China’s long-term economic goals. A stable border can facilitate these reforms without distractions from external conflicts.

Job Market

Youth unemployment and job market stability are important domestic concerns. Ensuring peace along the border can contribute to job market recovery.

Ensuring Vigilance and Enforcement:

While the 20th round of talks has made progress, it is imperative to remain vigilant and monitor the situation closely. China’s adherence to agreements is crucial for lasting peace along the LAC.

Some key considerations include: –

Transparency

Both countries should maintain transparent communication channels to prevent misunderstandings and misinterpretations of agreements.

Joint Monitoring

Establishing mechanisms for joint monitoring of the border areas can help prevent violations and incursions.

Diplomatic Engagement

Continued diplomatic engagement is essential to address unresolved issues, such as Daulat Beg Oldie and the Depsang region.

Global Diplomacy

Engaging with the international community to reinforce the importance of peace and stability in the region can exert pressure on both sides to adhere to agreements.