By Vaibhav Agrawal
The Indian Air Force has successfully operationalized three of its S-400 air defence missile squadrons, strategically positioning them along the borders with China and Pakistan. Indian and Russian officials are now gearing up for an upcoming meeting to discuss the final delivery schedule for the remaining two squadrons.
In 2018-19, India inked a significant contract worth over Rs 35,000 crore with Russia for the acquisition of five squadrons of S-400 missiles. While three squadrons have already been delivered to India, the remaining two faced delays due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Both Russian and Indian officials are now set to convene to finalise the delivery timeline for these remaining missile squadrons.
Reports from open sources have hinted at the possibility that some of the S-400 squadrons manufactured for the Indian Air Force may have been temporarily utilised by the Russian military. However, these claims lack confirmation, and India remains steadfast in its focus on obtaining its own S-400 systems.
Moreover, the Indian Defence Acquisition Council recently granted approval for the procurement of the Indian Long-Range Surface-to-Air Missile system under Project Kusha, following clearance by the Cabinet Committee on Security.
In light of these developments, one can’t help but ponder whether the S-400 missile defence system is indeed a transformative and game-changing asset for India.
India commenced the delivery of its five S-400 regiments in December 2021, initiating the initial deployments along the Indo-Pakistan border.
In the eyes of experts, the S-400’s on-paper capabilities in the realm of defensive and potentially offensive anti-access and area denial are indeed formidable. This advanced system boasts effectiveness against a range of threats, including aircraft, UAVs, and both ballistic and cruise missiles. Notably, its capacity to counter cruise missiles could potentially neutralise Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent.
The S-400’s comprehensive coverage is achieved through a combination of missiles, encompassing a 40-kilometre range with the 9M96E, a 120-kilometre range with the 9M96E2, a 250-kilometre range with the 48N6, and an impressive 400-kilometre range with the 40N6E missiles. This versatile range of missiles equips it to safeguard extensive areas, high-value targets, and itself from various types of attacks.
Furthermore, the S-400’s high mobility and ability to become operational within just five minutes of arriving at a new location make it exceptionally adaptable. This mobility allows for the system to be regularly relocated, reducing the risk of detection.
However, aerospace experts caution against both underestimating and overestimating the capabilities of the S-400. It is a powerful asset, but its effectiveness in real-world scenarios depends on various factors and operational considerations.
A reality check!
The S-400 Triumf air defence system acquired by India from Russia has indeed received extravagant praise in the Indian media, with descriptions ranging from the “world’s best” to a “game changer” and even a reference to the divine weapon Brahmastra from Hindu mythology. It’s crucial, however, to conduct a sober and technical evaluation of the system’s capabilities to avoid overestimation and undue military adventurism.
It’s a common pattern in Indian media to enthusiastically celebrate each new arms import, such as the Rafale jets, Barak-8 missiles, M-777 howitzers, any given emergency procurement etc. as a panacea for defeating the enemy swiftly. The reality, as you rightly point out, is often far more complex.
A comprehensive and authoritative assessment of the S-400 system has been presented by the Swedish Defence Research Agency FOI in its 116-page report titled ‘Bursting the Bubble: Russian A2/AD in the Baltic Sea Region,’ which deals with anti-access/area denial strategies. The report concludes that the system’s overall capabilities and its ability to counter countermeasures have been overestimated. It emphasises that the S-400 creates smaller A2/AD zones than typically assumed and identifies potential countermeasures.
The FOI highlights inherent difficulties in engaging manoeuvring targets like cruise missiles and low-flying fighter aircraft, which can significantly limit the effective range of the S-400. According to research, against such targets, the effective range could be as short as 20-35 kilometres or even less, depending on the terrain.
In addition to these limitations, the S-400 can be overwhelmed by a saturation attack of incoming missiles, and its engagement capabilities can be disrupted to some extent by electronic warfare. Moreover, it is noted that the claimed five-minute deployment time may only be applicable to open plains and not to mountainous or jungle terrain where radar systems might need to be elevated for a broader field of view. The total deployment time could extend to 45-90 minutes.
Furthermore, the S-400 has limitations in countering hypersonic missiles due to speed and altitude constraints. It’s essential to consider that the Chinese hypersonic missile DF-ZF, for instance, travels at Mach 10, which is incredibly fast.
With regards to China
The S-400 air defence systems, while formidable, are not impervious to potential threats, as they could be vulnerable to spoofing. It’s worth noting that India and China have both acquired the S-400, with China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) also operating this system. This shared familiarity with the S-400 could reduce its long-term credibility as a deterrent for India against the PLAAF.
China made history as the first foreign buyer of Russia’s S-400 by placing an order for four to six regimental units back in 2014, with an estimated cost of $3 billion. The final deliveries of these systems were completed in July 2018.
In considering the implications of China’s possession of the S-400, it’s important to recognize that having the same system could grant the PLAAF in-depth knowledge and insight into its workings. This familiarity could potentially enable China to develop strategies and tactics for countering the S-400’s capabilities, thereby challenging India’s reliance on it as a long-term deterrent against the PLAAF.
Can Pak take it?
The S-400’s purported offensive capabilities, which could potentially restrict an adversary’s use of its own airspace, are of particular concern for Pakistan, given its geographic proximity and the extensive border it shares with India. This air defence system’s reach would indeed cover a substantial portion of Pakistan’s territory.
However, the effectiveness of the S-400 against ballistic or cruise missiles remains a subject of debate, contingent on several critical factors. One crucial factor is the system’s effective engagement range, which hinges on various variables, including the curvature of the Earth, the characteristics of the nearby terrain, and the deployment location of the system.
An important consideration is that if the S-400 is deployed too far forward, it could be susceptible to direct targeting by potential adversaries. In this regard, experts in Pakistan point to the Fatah-1, a 150-kilometre-range guided round designed for the Chinese A-100 multiple launch rocket system. This missile system is perceived as a potential threat to the S-400, and the Fatah-1 round demonstrated its capability during successful testing in August 2021.
Additionally, experts note that effective electronic warfare measures can further diminish the S-400’s effectiveness or even lead to its suppression or destruction. Pakistan has displayed its electronic warfare capabilities in the past, notably when its Air Force executed retaliatory strikes into Indian-held territory during a military escalation in February 2019.
What about BrahMos?
In the arena of modern warfare, two formidable weapons, the S-400 Triumf and the BrahMos missile, are set to clash. To comprehend the potential showdown between these powerhouses, it’s vital to delve into their capabilities.
The S-400 Triumf, an advanced surface-to-air missile system, is engineered to engage a diverse array of targets, including aircraft, drones, ballistic and cruise missiles. With an astounding range of up to 400 kilometres and the ability to track and engage multiple targets simultaneously, it stands as a potent defence system.
On the opposing front, the BrahMos missile, renowned for its supersonic speed, precision, and versatility, poses a significant threat. Launchable from land, sea, and air platforms, it boasts a range of approximately 300 kilometres and can achieve speeds of Mach 2.8.
What sets the BrahMos apart is its capacity to fly at extremely low altitudes, rendering it elusive and challenging to detect and intercept. Its supersonic velocity and manoeuvrability further compound the challenge, making it a formidable adversary for air defence systems, even the likes of the S-400.
However, the S-400 is no ordinary defence system. Equipped with advanced radar technology capable of tracking low-flying targets, including cruise missiles like the BrahMos, it holds the upper hand. Additionally, the S-400 features a diverse array of interceptor missiles, each tailored to combat specific threats. Notably, its long-range missiles, such as the 40N6, possess the capability to intercept the BrahMos even at extended ranges.
In an interview with The Week, Atul Dinkar Rane, CEO and MD of BrahMos Aerospace, highlighted the inherent challenges in intercepting the BrahMos. The rapid reaction time from BrahMos launch to impact and the unique characteristics of a cruise missile make it a daunting target for surface-to-air missiles. Defending against the BrahMos is no simple task, especially given its low altitude and supersonic speed. Intercepting a supersonic cruise missile is a formidable challenge, and countering a barrage of BrahMos missiles presents an even greater hurdle, underscoring the distinctive philosophy of a cruise missile system.
India’s LRSAM: The Ultimate Answer
India is taking proactive steps to enhance its defence capabilities and protect itself from potential threats from neighbouring countries, particularly China and Pakistan. A homegrown successor to the Russian S-400 system is currently in development in India, known as the Long Range Surface to Air Missile (LRSAM). This new system is being developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and promises to be faster, more precise, and technologically advanced compared to the S-400.
The DRDO is diligently working on this indigenous air defence system, which is designed to engage and neutralise long-range targets. One of its key capabilities is the ability to intercept and destroy enemy fighter aircraft, ballistic missiles, and attack drones while they are airborne. The LRSAM system will consist of a three-tiered missile defence structure, with missiles tailored to engage targets at varying ranges, from surface to air. These missiles are equipped to counter adversary aircraft operating at different altitudes and distances across the sky.
Notably, the indigenous LRSAM is expected to have a range comparable to the S-400, which can engage targets up to 400 kilometres away. It will possess the capacity to intercept and destroy hostile missiles in flight, much like the S-400. This multi-layered defence system will provide India with a robust and versatile defence against approaching hostile aircraft, regardless of the distance from which they originate. This advancement reflects India’s commitment to bolstering its defence capabilities and ensuring its security in the face of evolving threats.
The Bottom Line
In the ever-evolving landscape of defence and security, the interplay between the S-400 and the strategic assets of India’s neighbouring countries, Pakistan and China, reveals a complex dynamic. India’s acquisition of the S-400, celebrated as a robust shield in its defence arsenal, offers a comprehensive response to a spectrum of aerial threats, including aircraft, drones, and various types of missiles. However, the system’s efficacy depends on factors such as deployment specifics and the capabilities of potential adversaries.
India’s proactive approach to bolstering its defence capabilities is exemplified by indigenous solutions like the Long Range Surface to Air Missile (LRSAM), designed to surpass the S-400 in terms of speed, precision, and advanced technology. This dynamic interplay highlights the need for a flexible and pragmatic approach to address the evolving nature of security challenges and underscores India’s commitment to safeguarding its national interests and regional stability.
The author is a passionate independent journalist with a keen focus on Space and Defence Affairs. He can be reached at vaibhavmag1@gmail.com & he tweets @VaibhavMAG
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