By (Mrs) Amb Narinder Chauhan
“…. growing anti-India activities and politically-condoned hate crimes….” are among the words used by the Ministry of External Affairs in the first sentence of the Advisory for Indian nationals and students in Canada issued on 20 September 2023. This is symptomatic of a new low in the relations between India and Canada which have entered into a state of ‘free fall’. This follows the extraordinary public allegation made by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the emergency session of the Canadian Parliament on 19 September that the murder investigation of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada pointed the needle of suspicion at Indian government agents in Canada. The Indian government rejected the allegations as ‘absurd’ and ‘motivated’. In a reciprocal move, intelligence officers stationed in Ottawa and New Delhi have been expelled by both sides. The visits of official delegations have been suspended. Earlier too, there have been periods of lows particularly after the Air India Kanishka crash, the largest act of terror thus far by Canada based extremists, and again after the Indian nuclear tests of 1998! Each time, both sides put their past behind them and moved forward. But the road was always long.
Unfortunately, the long shadows of terror have once again come to visit bilateral ties overshadowing the salience of an otherwise very promising relationship. During the period 2008-2015, relations saw a 360 degree turn from complete nuclear ban to complete nuclear cooperation, including its operationalisation leading to the import of uranium from the mines of Saskatchewan, considered the finest in the world. The Nuclear Cooperation Agreement was signed in 2010 during PM Dr Manmohan Singh’s historic visit to Canada, after a gap of 37 years at that level, for the G20 Summit. The negotiations for a free trade deal commenced. The conservative government of PM Stephen Harper also put a closure on the Kanishka crash including its investigation and compensation.
Relations opened in all fields including investments in India by Canadian Sovereign Pension Funds which at the end of last year reached an all time high of $45b, making India the fourth largest recipient of Canadian FDI in the world across sectors such as renewable energy, infrastructure and technology.
The issue of Canadian visas to serving and ex security personnel who had served in sensitive areas in India, was also managed through deft handling by the two foreign offices. However, now, this issue has reared its head again.
Bilateral trade rose by four times and stood at $16b in FY ending 2023. Canada which in keeping with the Western alliance had banned any official dealings with Gujarat after the Godhra riots opened its trade office in Ahmedabad in 2009 and entered Gujarat majorly by its regular participation in the successive editions of Vibrant Gujarat: Bombardier, the fourth largest Aviation company in the world not only produced railway coaches for Indian metro, it also exported them. MaCain Foods not only gave technology to the Gujarat farmers to produce potato chips for the Indian market, but also exported them. The idea of Make in India perhaps germinated from what the Canadian companies were doing in Gujarat!
The Indian economy offers tremendous opportunities for Canadian companies in emerging sectors such as transportation infrastructure, life science, clean energy technologies (integrated renewable energy/smart grid; carbon capture, use and storage, and energy efficiency). The nature of such investments is long term and therefore not easily shaken by periodic political bumps.
Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy published last year put a strong emphasis on diversifying trade in the region away from China.
The potential for trade is strong because the two countries deal in complementary goods such as pharma exports from India and import of newsprint and pulses from Canada. Both the countries require each other’s products. The prospects for a free trade deal with Canada appeared the strongest from among the three such deals underway with the UK and the EU. The current tensions have not only frozen the trade deal negotiations, it could also affect our import of pulses as 21% of our imports are from Canada. Newsprint imports could also take a hit as 40% of it was imported from Canada in the April-July period this year (Council for Social Development).
Beyond trade, there are also around 319,000 Indian students enrolled in Canada, making them the largest international student group in the country. Canada with its better standard of living, higher salaried jobs, low crime rate, free healthcare services, public infrastructure, quality education etc has always been attractive for the Indian population. As per the 2022 Human Development Index, Canada ranks 15th (India in 132 position).
Canada and India have long standing bilateral relations built upon shared traditions of democracy, pluralism and strong interpersonal connections. Canada is a G 7, G20 country and home to one of the largest Indian communities; 4% of Canadians are of Indian origin (1.3m), more or less proportionately represented in the federal parliament. Therefore, every time there has been a downturn in the relationship, strong statesmanship on both sides has enabled the two countries to pull out of it.
The display of incendiary tableaux in Canada during the Blue Star anniversary along with violent threats to Indian diplomats and attacks at the consulates during June this year sparked widespread outrage in India. What was seen as a tepid response of the Canadian side triggered an aggressive reaction in India signalled by a very strong press release issued after the talks between PM Modi and PM Trudeau during the recent G20 Summit in New Delhi. The 2018 visit of PM Trudeau to India was also controversial; accompanied by PIO Minister(s) suspected of pro-separatist leanings was seen as a red herring by the Indian government. This shows that the long shadow of terror has kept lurking over a period of time. Whatever the political compulsions, both sides need to pull back, engage in patient dialogue, if required through back channels.
Predictably, other powers in the western alliance have also been involved by Canada which has explained its position on the matter to them. It is time that countries such as the USA, UK and Australia, which are also affected by the issue, come together in a united front with Canada to deal expeditiously with a matter which has no traction in India, but is kept alive outside its shores.
The author is a former Indian ambassador and former Deputy High Commissioner to Canada from 2008 to 2013.
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