Prime Minister Theresa May, against the odds, is still fighting to get her unpopular Brexit deal through Parliament. No-deal Brexit is back on the table with just days to go to avoid it. And there’s a risk that if a cliff-edge is avoided now, another one might loom three months later.
Here are the key dates:
March 21-22: EU summit. Leaders agree to a three-month extension but only if May gets her deal passed in Parliament.
March 25: May has promised Parliament time on this day to debate Brexit options.
March 26 or 27: May expected to put her deal back to Parliament for a vote
March 28: Another EU summit is penciled in. If May’s deal is again rejected she has a choice: go for no-deal as the Brexiteer minority in her party want, or ask the bloc for an extension. The EU will probably insist on a long extension to give time for a rewrite of the strategy (with a big hint that a general election or referendum would be a good idea). Otherwise, a short extension for both sides to prepare for no-deal.
March 29: Brexit day. Two options: nothing changes, as an extension has been locked down, or chaos as Britain tumbles into legal limbo, trade is snarled, the pound plunges and companies put their worst-case plans into action.
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April 12: If the U.K. is still in the bloc and wants to remain beyond July 1, it must announce European Parliament elections. If they’re not called, and there’s still no sign of progress toward a deal, then another cliff-edge comes into view. (The date of July 1 could be substituted for May 23 — that’s still a matter for debate.)
April 18: EU Parliament dissolved — and can no longer ratify the Brexit deal before July 2.
May 23-26: European Parliament elections.
July 1: If the U.K. hasn’t held Parliamentary elections, and doesn’t have a deal, then the U.K. will be ejected from the bloc into legal limbo. (According to a draft plan.)
July 2: European Parliament’s first session of new term begins.
