By Suvam Pal
This was arguably one of the most widely and closely-watched elections globally in the history of Taiwan since the island nation transitioned from being under the erstwhile longest martial law anywhere in the world (before Syria) to becoming a democracy in 1987. The stakes were relatively high, with China reportedly leaving no stone unturned to “influence” the outcome as the Communist regime dubbed the election to be a choice between ‘peace and war.’ In the end, the incumbent Tsai Ing-wen government of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) bucked the anti-incumbency to ensure a historic third successive Presidential term for the party and was able to send its current Vice President Lai Ching-te to the majestic century-old red brick edifice on the Ketagalan Boulevard in the heart of Taipei. As expected, the DPP’s status quo at the Taiwan Presidential office has not gone down well for the fire-breathing dragon. The “inevitable annexation” threat intensified after its Kuomintang (KMT) pitching script got flipped.
But for India, the democratic continuation of the Tsai legacy for four more years gives more diplomatic elbow room for stronger bilateral relations and more extensive trade cooperation. A KMT victory may not have upset the bilateral applecart, but it would have undoubtedly forced South Block to recalibrate its engagement with a Taiwanese party that, during the campaign, promised to offer an olive branch to China, a country with which India’s cross-border relations have become somewhat fraught.
During a private interaction with me, a top Taiwanese diplomat rued that the India-Taiwan relationship didn’t quite reach the height it had deserved under Tsai’s two successive terms comprising eight years. Another former diplomat-turned-senior minister in the Tsai government once emphasized the “emotional connection” the first and only woman President of Taiwan had with India even before she broke the glass ceiling. In fact, after losing her first Presidential election to incumbent President Ma Ying-jeou in 2012, Tsai chose India as her retreat to regain energy and strength. One of the highlights of her India sojourn was an overnight train journey from Delhi to Mumbai. The unmarried President’s solo photographs at the Taj Mahal, which she strategically posted on Twitter a few months after the June 2020 Galwan clash and the first wave of the pandemic, also made her one of the most influential global personalities since Princess Diana to pose in front of the “Monument of love” in Agra alone. But her love for India has “always been special,” the senior diplomat informed me, adding that “no top politician” in Taiwan probably understands India more than President Tsai with her first-hand travel experience.
But the top two candidates of this year’s Presidential election, Lai, the eventual winner, and Hou Yu-ih, the KMT candidate and runner-up, had never visited India. The third candidate, Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party, however, visited India in 2017 with a Taiwanese delegation during his tenure as the Mayor of Taipei. But once Lai officially assumes office in May, the president-elect is expected to carry forward the legacy of the New South Bound Policy. India has been an integral part of this showpiece foreign policy endeavour by President Tsai. But the election of her close confidante, Hsiao Bi-khim, as the next vice president will likely be another pull factor for Taiwan’s growing bonhomie with India as the ‘Cat Warrior’ has prior experience visiting India. Before becoming the de facto U.S. Ambassador Hsiao was one of the speakers at the Raisina Dialogue in Delhi in 2018.
However, it’s not going to be a walk in the park for the Lai-Hsiao team, as the bilateral relationship between India and Taiwan needs some extra push to achieve its goal. Even though the Tsai government hastily dubbed it “China’s cognitive warfare,” the sudden meltdown over an India-Taiwan migration and mobility agreement following some social media dissents and a physical protest by 20-odd people in front of the Taiwan Presidential Office doesn’t portray a positive picture of camaraderie. Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who recently triggered a social media tsunami with his Lakshadweep sojourn, hasn’t congratulated President-elect Lai on social media even after 24 hours following the DPP leader’s triumph. Of course, India historically maintains the “One China Policy” and doesn’t have any formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan yet, but the bilateral relationship needs to negotiate a few speed-breakers before going for a long and uninterrupted ride. If Taiwan slightly lacks the animal spirit in trade and economic partnership, then India seems to be diplomatically overcautious and extra calculative. Nonetheless, it’s going to be a significant challenge for the incoming Lai government to bolster its bilateral ties with India, even with outgoing President Tsai’s blessings.
The author is a Taipei-based Indian broadcast journalist for TaiwanPlus.
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