By Rajorshi Roy
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un recently paid a six-day landmark visit to Russia, his second in four years and his first international sojourn since the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic. The highlight of the trip was summit-level talks between Kim and his Russian counterpart President Vladimir Putin in Vostochny in Russia’s Far East.
This event was marked by the apparent camaraderie between the two leaders who also affirmed an understanding of each other’s core concerns amidst their hostile geopolitical environment. This included Kim supporting Russia’s ongoing “scared struggle” and wishing for “new victory of great Russia”. President Putin reciprocated by emphasising on the adage “an old friend being better than two new ones” in the context of their bilateral ties. He also accepted Kim’s invite for a state visit to Pyongyang.
The summit signals a growing warmth in the bilateral relationship. The official Korean Central News agency even labelled the talks as an “an epoch-making event” in a “new era of friendship, solidarity and cooperation”. This is a far cry from the long-perceived stagnation and complexity in ties amidst Russia supporting United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on North Korea since 2006.
Much water appears to have flown under the bridge since then. In fact, the wheels of motion for qualitatively improving ties seem to have been set last year against the backdrop of Russia and North Korea’s growing confrontation with the West. It included Russia vetoing US attempts at imposing new sanctions on North Korea at the UNSC while Pyongyang recognised the independence of breakaway Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, now under Russian control. The subsequent visit of Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to North Korea in July 2023 and exchange of letters between the two heads of states marked a new thaw. The letters sought to “expand bilateral cooperation in all fields and build a longstanding strategic relationship in conformity with demand of the new era”.
While the Vostochny summit’s outcome may appear nebulous given the veil of secrecy surrounding the agreements signed and the anodyne official press release merely referring to an “exchange of opinions on global and regional issues”, yet, joining the dots through the statements of two leaders and profiles of their respective entourage indicate a comprehensive agenda.
The pertinent questions, therefore, are what are the key drivers of bilateral ties? What could be its potential impact on regional strategic architecture? And could be the limits of this relationship?
Drivers of Ties
It would appear that both tactical and strategic calculations are at play. Inevitably, the ongoing geopolitical pressure by the US on Moscow and Pyongyang seem to be the trigger that has led these two Cold War era legacy partners to seek new bilateral equations.
For Russia, it would appear that on its immediate wish-list is the large stockpile of Soviet-designed and, therefore, compatible North Korean munition to replenish its own being rapidly expanded in Ukraine. Notably, there have been reports of the Russian military industrial complex (MIC) being unable to cope with the aforesaid demand.
Similarly, North Korean industrial manpower could be tapped to make up for the large conscription that Russia has undertaken. There already exists a precedent – North Korean labour was deployed for constructing infrastructure for the soccer world cup held in Russia in 2018.
Also, North Korean know-how in circumventing sanctions could be useful amidst Moscow’s growing Western economic boycott. Pertinently, the North Korean regime continues to weather the storm of a stringent global embargo.
Meanwhile, it would be in Russia’s interest to distract the US from its commitment to Ukraine. And the Kremlin’s support, military or economic, to North Korea could set the proverbial cat among the pigeons. Russia’s support could also be a signal to South Korea and Japan to back down from militarily aiding Kiev.
For North Korea, Russian support could be vital in vetoing the UNSC from taking action against Pyongyang upping the ante in its neighbourhood. Similarly, Russian hard currency, by virtue of North Korean weapons export, as well as aid in the form of food, energy and machinery could alleviate Pyongyang’s economic pain.
Crucially, Russian military expertise could help overcome the recent setbacks faced by North Korea in its missile and satellite programmes. Kim’s visit to Russia’s Vostochny spaceport as well as Komsomolsk-on-Amur where majority of Russia’s high-tech MIC, including hypersonic weapons, are located is a straight indicator of the North Korean calculus. This was further reinforced not only by the presence of a heavy-duty delegation of Korean military officials and members of its MIC during summit-level talks but also by Kim being feted with military gifts. These included rifles, kamikaze and reconnaissance drones, and bullet proof vests.
Meanwhile, being courted by Russia puts the limelight on a North Korean leader who has been largely shunned globally. Kim could seek to reap its dividend. This includes boosting his domestic popularity by projecting himself as a statesman.
Impact on Regional Security Architecture
A robust Russia-North Korea partnership could have an impact on both the European and North East Asian security theatres, highlighting the indivisibility of global security. North Korean ammunition could boost Russia’s firepower in Ukraine, thereby helping sustain the ongoing war. A prolonged or a frozen conflict would inevitably then be a litmus test of Western long-term commitment to Kiev. North Korean assistance could also dilute the “maximum pressure” being imposed by the West on Moscow.
Similarly, Russian support could embolden Kim – North Korea sabre-rattling was evident during the launch of a barrage of missiles on the eve of Kim’s visit to Vostochny. In the same vein, the Kremlin’s technical know-how could upgrade Pyongyang’s arsenal.
These developments may heighten the insecurity of both of North Korea’s neighbours in South Korea and Japan. Seoul and Tokyo, who rely on the US nuclear umbrella, could now seek new counter-measures amidst this perceived provocation. In fact, Kim’s visit coincided with the US green-lighting a $ 5 billion sale of F-35 fighter jets to Seoul. As such, the fragile regional security architecture could get further frayed.
Limits
As always, the devil lies in the details. And there appear to be certain limits to the partnership. These include the overhang of UNSC sanctions on North Korea which prohibit arms trade with the North Korean regime. Russia risks reputational damage by engaging a regime with a history of proliferation. It also runs the risk of this move backfiring amidst North Korea’s seemingly cavalier attitude on proliferation – Russian weapons and know-how could fall into the hands of both adversaries and non-state actors, which in turn could spiral into new security threats.
Similarly, Russia would likely be wary of Kim seeking to strike a hard bargain, particularly weapons, which may alter the regional balance of power. This would inevitably pull in China which has prioritised strategic stability in the region. And Beijing may not prefer the change in status quo.
Consequently, amidst the ongoing geopolitical flux, it would appear that all bets are off on the prospect of deepening of Russia-North Korea ties. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s statement on “developing equal and fair interaction” with Pyongyang in response to a question on navigating the global punitive sanctions regime on North Korea is perhaps a clue into what could unfold – that overlapping interests and abundant caution are likely to be the North Star of bilateral ties.
Author is Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.