By Dr Md. Farijuddin Khan & Dr Aparaajita Pandey
On Tuesday, Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles, around 180 in two phases, targeting critical military installations in Israel’s capital to showcase its physical deterrence capability openly. The fact that there was no casualty reported from the sites where a few Iranian missiles hit targets, piercing through Israel’s highly sophisticated air defence systems. The missile attacks were the second of its kind in less than six months by Tehran as a calculated response to Israel’s killing of top Iranian, Hamas leaders, and most recently, Hezbollah’s top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in September this year. In July, Hamas political chief Ismael Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran’s capital through a precision missile attack, and Tehran has blamed Israel for it. Tel Aviv perceived the October 1, 2024, Iranian missile attacks at the heart of its territory as a grave act of transgression, and Prime Minister Netanyahu has called it a “big mistake” by Tehran. Israel has vowed to retaliate with full force against Iran—something the international community, including its closest allies, the United States and NATO, are concerned about.
Even though Israel’s multi-layered air defence system could prevent almost all the incoming missiles in the air and prevent large-scale damages in the city, Iranian missiles, at least 32 of them, have hit Israel Nevatim air base, which reportedly stations dozens of US-made F-35 aircraft that Israel has been using for its airstrike campaigns against Hezbollah in Lebanon, reports suggest. Nevertheless, the IDF, Israel’s armed forces, have downplayed the damage on air force bases claimed by Tehran, in particular, arguing that none of the advanced 5th generation aircraft was stationed at the time of the attacks. They were in the air. However, satellite images circulated on social media and media platforms verified by AP (Associated Press), revealed otherwise.
Now, the pertinent questions are what an Israeli response could be, and whether, provided that the U.S. and NATO support it, Israel has the foresight to engage in a long-term war with Iran and win. The potential implications of such a protracted war in a region, especially considering the potential support from these international alliances, where many critical international sea lanes of communication are present, and the base of major global oil producers are significant, cannot be overstated.
To start with, a disproportionate retaliation on Iran by Israel and its allies (US and European countries) may come in many forms, especially bombardment of Iran’s nuclear sites, hitting Iran’s vast oilfields, bombing civilian conglomerates causing heavy casualties, and the worst of all, direct ground invasion by Israel supported by its western alliances. First of all, it is unlikely that there would be a direct ground war between the two sides. For such direct conflict to happen, they should share common boundaries, and neutral Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia will have strict reservations against a full-fledged all-out war in its vicinity affecting them. Besides, Iran is a natural state that has never been colonized. Apart from the Islamic identity that broadly binds the majority of Iranians, the Persian civilizational pride among the Iranians will push them for unity, and such a solidifying thread is not to be underestimated by its adversaries. An invasion of Iran will bring chaos across the world, something Israel or its allies could not be able to control. That is why, despite many calls for an Iraqi-style war on Iran for years, Washington has not made that call.
The proportionality principle while retaliating is a vital factor that will decide the region’s fate. Israel has superior air power capabilities, but Iran compensated for that weakness by the strategic dislocation of its allies across the region. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have committed to Iran’s cause. Any full-scale ground invasion of Iran will likely be met with asymmetrical attacks on Israel and its allies in the Gulf and elsewhere. The Houthis, for example, attacked U.S. naval ships and destroyers in the Red Sea in September 2024 with some amount of success. Both Iran and its allies can strike U.S. bases in the Gulf and the Red Sea simultaneously if war escalates. Thus, any Israeli disproportionate attacks against Iran will involve the U.S., which the President Biden administration has warned Israel against committing. The administration’s announcement of more Iranian sanctions may be interpreted as an effort to restrain Israel from committing a full-scale Israel-Iran war that would jeopardize his administration’s and the country’s interests. In addition to the above, the US also will have to act according to its domestic situation considering the Presidential elections are around the corner.
Furthermore, the Khamanei-led Iranian regime in Tehran still considers Israel and the United States as its enemies and has pursued varied ways to push for a nuclear program for years to deter any possible direct invasion on its soil. However, because of the significant Western sanctions and nuclear-cessation talks to bring a binding agreement between Iran and the world leaders in the past, Iran is believed to have slowed down its program and anti-nuclear weapons proliferation efforts in West Asia survive. Nevertheless, suppose Israel chooses to launch missiles against Iranian nuclear sites or conduct mass-scale airstrikes against oil fields to squeeze Iran’s fragile economy. In that case, Iran will respond and, hence, an escalation that has the potential to be rather fatal for those involved.
The consequences of such actions will be devastating to begin. It will provide Iran the opportunity to hastily take a swift decision against disarming nuclear arsenals and push for acquiring nuclear weapons status with the help of anti-U.S.-NATO supporters such as Russia and North Korea. Iran’s nuclear program may go underground, and that would be the beginning of a nuclear race in the region – a terrible consequence for all. Moreover, attacks on oil fields may create a negative global economic loop affecting Iran’s top oil importers, such as China. A full-scale Israel-Iran war in the region will affect the global economy as countries avoid the major international trade passes in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, and the spike in gas and oil prices may lead to recession across regions. It will further intensify polarization among global powers and leaders.
From a tactical angle, critics may argue that the weight of combined Israel-U.S.-NATO alliances might subdue Iran. However, Iran is much bigger than Israel. It will face destruction, but not entirely. Iran has multiple capabilities. Drones and missiles are its strongest allies. Iran is developing a sophisticated air defense system of its own with the help of Russia. The latest Iranian missile attacks highlight Israel’s effective multi-layered air and missile defense system.
Nevertheless, the number of missiles piercing through the defense system can dull the efficacy limit. In this context, the question is whether Israel and its allies will be able to defend Iran’s counter-attacks with high-speed missiles three or four times the number that was displayed on October 1. Will Tel Aviv be able to install limitless interceptors such as the Tamir used in the Iron Dome defense system? The Patriot and Arrow missile defense systems use interceptors that cost approximately $4 million to $62 million to defend from adversaries’ barrage of much cheaper drones and missiles in large quantities. An intense war where a wounded Iran and its allies in Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, and Iraq (even Bahrain) will come at any cost, targeting U.S. naval fleets in the Gulf. The negative impact of war could spread to other regions, such as Europe and North America, where the Iranian and Shi’ite diaspora thrives.
In conclusion, the likelihood of an intense full-scale confrontation involving the U.S. and its allies against Iran is 50-50. Logically, the U.S. has every reason not to get involved and, instead, convince Israel of a response the Iranian attacks deserve. However, the intensity with which Israeli political elites, such as former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, have pressured the Netanyahu government and the likelihood of Israel yielding makes a case for sketching a devastating picture in the region. Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump has encouraged Tel Aviv elites to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, quite contrary to the Biden administration’s stand. Nonetheless, what Israel must understand is that Iran is not Iraq that can easily be defeated and choked. It’s a civilizational power vying for regional hegemony. It is also a member of BRICS. Any response by Israel should be limited to proving its power and will to retaliate no matter what while avoiding a full-scale, intense war with Iran. The U.S.-NATO must ensure that they do not stretch their strength beyond the ongoing war in the East, where they struggle to win. The world is watching. India, China, and Russia are watching.
About the Authors
Dr Md. Farijuddin Khan, Assistant Professor, Political Science, Dhanamanjuri University, Manipur
Dr Aparaajita Pandey Assistant Professor, Amity International University, NCR Delhi.
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