By Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh, VSM (Retd)
Donald Trump’s return to power can be termed as a stunning comeback. What is even more significant is the fact that he has won the popular vote and has a clean sweep in the election. The result was uncontroversial which is clearly uncharacteristic and as a result the Republican Party’s domination of all branches of Government will make him a more powerful President than he was in his first term due to his stronger mandate.
What his foreign policy will look like is being feverishly assessed across the world. The question uppermost in analysts’ minds is if POTUS 47 will follow his earlier America First approach and if this Presidency will also prove to be as disruptive as in the past? This had led to worries by some regarding the choice Americans made on 05 November.
There is no doubt that the world has changed in the last few years and that the US is no longer the sole dominant power in an increasingly multipolar world, which places limits on its ability to shape global geopolitics and determine outcomes. US deterrence has suffered under President Joe Biden and this was highlighted by the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. In fact, Trump criticized President Biden for the chaotic withdrawal asserting that “the humiliation in Afghanistan set off the collapse of American credibility and respect all around the world.” Further, China has continued to rise unabatedly as the world has been focused on Ukraine and West Asia.
The other significant difference between Trump’s first- and second-term is that leaders across the globe now have a better idea of Trump. He is now a known actor on the global stage.
There is also a view that the US engagement with the world in recent years has neither been sustained nor consistent, which raises questions about US reliability.
Russia – Ukraine
Where a radical change in US policy is likely is in the Ukraine war. Often claiming he can end the war “in a day”, Trump is expected to push for talks to end a conflict he says “should never have happened”. This is cause for concern for Europe. Trump has said he will press Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin to enter negotiations for a peace deal. He may not be averse to an outcome that favours Russia holding on to the territory it has captured and is presently controlling.
But in case he is not able to get President Putin to agree on a deal he stated during the campaign, “I would tell Putin, if you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give [Zelensky] a lot. We’re going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to.” Turning that promise into policy would go a long way to reestablish American deterrence.
Trump’s willingness in his first term to take offensive action, such as by striking the Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 and having US troops attack Russian mercenaries in Syria in February 2018, suggests that he could once again use US military force purposefully.
Trump may have his views on ending the conflict but his ideas need to be accepted by Ukraine and Russia. President Zelenskyy’s making major territorial compromises may result in his removal from power. President Putin will also want his red line regarding Ukraine being part of NATO and occupation of territory captured to be acknowledged.
NATO
Trump has frequently chastised NATO allies for not sharing the defence burden. He has also said in his second term, America will fundamentally rethink “Nato’s purpose and mission” and ask European nations to reimburse the US billions of dollars for military supplies it sent to Ukraine.
European allies, therefore, have much to worry about. They have to deal with a President who now wants Europe to shoulder greater responsibility for its security. He has also been quoted during the campaign stating that “in many cases, our allies are worse than our so-called enemies”. There is no denying that he wants allies to shoulder more of the burden for their own defence.
West Asia
The crisis in West Asia presents a clear and present challenge that Trump might seek to address by forcing a ceasefire in Gaza. While avoiding specifics, he repeatedly said during the campaign he wants to see peace in the region and Israel should end the war quickly — by winning it and “finishing the job”. He is even more pro-Israel than President Joe Biden and has no empathy for the plight of the Palestinians (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once called Trump the best friend Israel ever had in the White House).
Nor has Trump shown any commitment to a two-state solution even though that remains the US position. Any deal he might push for will be on Israel’s terms and will also aim to goad other Arab countries to accede to the Abraham Accords his signature Middle East initiative in his first term. This will principally involve encouraging Saudi Arabia to normalise ties with Israel, although Riyadh has made it clear this will only be possible once a Palestinian state is established.
President elect Donald Trump’s choice of pro-Israel lawmakers for top foreign policy jobs namely Representative Elise Stefanik, of New York as United Nations Ambassador, Representative Mike Waltz of Florida as his National Security Advisor, and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida is tipped to be the Secretary of State underscores that his focus will be on heightening support for Israel and pressurising Iran .
Trump took a dim view of Iran during his first term, aborting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that sought to curb Iran’s nuclear-weapons work. He also imposed what was described as a “maximum pressure” strategy in hope that Iran would abandon its nuclear weapon programme, stop funding and training terrorist groups and improve its human-rights record.
Although he’s expected to call for an end to Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and its campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, he’s unlikely to criticise how Israeli forces conduct their operations against Iran. As per reports he told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on phone last month to “do what you have to do” when it comes to Iran and its militant proxy groups.
China
One certainty, with far-reaching implications for global stability and economy, is that Trump 2.0 will continue the well-established US policy of containment of China. China has treated the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to gain operational and technological insights, reverse engineer US weapons recovered from the battlefield, and find ways to circumvent Western economic sanctions. The longer the war in Ukraine drags on, the more the cost of deterring China goes up. China remains a strategic adversary and challenge.
During the campaign, Trump also said he would seek a good relationship with Beijing. In a Fox News interview, he said while there was no greater critic of China than him, he respected China and President Xi Jinping.
While intensifying the rivalry with China, Trump would want to avoid a collision course or military conflict over Taiwan. He has, in fact, been critical of Taiwan, saying it should pay the US for defending it. But the fact is that China’s Navy is growing rapidly, and its shipbuilding industry has a capacity many times that of the US. In a potential conflict in Asia, the US Navy is already at a disadvantage, as it would need to traverse an ocean. Reconstituting a war-winning Navy should be the top priority of the U.S. defense program.
On China, Trump had displayed a willingness to cede ground on issues such as the crackdown in Hong Kong and the repression in Xinjiang, in return for a better bilateral trade deal.
US-China ties under Trump 2.0 will shape the India-US defence relationship over the next four years. The QUAD Summit that PM Modi will host in 2025 will no doubt be the most important event defining security in this region.
Conclusion
It is stated that unpredictability is likely to be the hallmark of Trump’s foreign policy. However, he has rather predictable policy views. He thinks that the globalized economy and immigration are bad for American workers and that allies take advantage of the US.
He has a transactional view of international relations that would also open his policies to pragmatic possibilities. The world can expect disruptions in US policy at a pivotal time when wars and crises hang in the balance in what UN Secretary General António Guterres calls an “age of chaos”.
The fact is that Trump will now be in a position to enact the policies he campaigned on with the latitude to respond to events as they happen, and support a population that has backed him. But campaign rhetoric will need to face up to the realities of the world he now navigates.
The author is an Indian Army Veteran.
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