Azerbaijan’s Strategic Manoeuvre: Analysing the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict’s Global Impact

By Radhey Wadhwa

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, rooted in historical, cultural, and geopolitical complexities, has recently seen a significant development. On the 19th of September, Azerbaijan launched a swift military action against the ethnic Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. On 2nd October, the United Nations Mission arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh as the exodus of Ethnic Armenians to Armenia has crossed over 100,000.  This article delves into the background of the conflict, analyses Azerbaijan’s strategic calculus, and explores the geopolitical implications for the South Caucasus region.

Background of the Conflict

Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region in the South Caucasus, is officially recognised as part of Azerbaijan. Yet, its population of 120,000 is predominantly ethnic Armenian, having close cultural, social and historical ties with Armenia. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the region became a centre of long-term conflict. The frequent fighting and stalemate led to the conflict being termed one of the “frozen conflicts.” The first Karabakh war between 1988 and 1994 saw the death of over 30,000 people. The second Karabakh war broke out in 2020, where Azerbaijan recaptured previously lost territory around Nagorno-Karabakh. A ceasefire agreement was brokered by Russia along with providing 1960 Russian Peacekeeping personnel along the Lachin Corridor- which is the lone roadway connecting the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Armenia and was previously controlled by Armenia itself. However, no peace deal was signed and Azerbaijan demanded more concessions. From December 2022, the Lachin Corridor was blockaded in Azerbaijan, causing severe shortages of essential goods- including food, fuel and water reserves. While tensions were running high, Azerbaijan saw an opportunity amidst the conducive international arena and launched an offensive on 19th September.

Within twenty-four hours of Azerbaijan’s offensive, fighters in the separatist region surrendered. This surrender has triggered the exodus of ethnic Armenians, with more than 80% of the Nagorno-Karabakh population already crossing over to Armenia. On 26 September, Azerbaijan arrested Ruben Vardanyan, the former head of the Nagorno-Karabakh separatist government. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly denied any claims of ethnic cleansing and has ensured that the rights of Armenians in Karabakh would be guaranteed. However, history paints a stark reality. Historically, ethnic Armenians have faced discrimination and carry memories of the 20th-century genocide. After the events of last week and the quick surrender of Karabakh fighters, the leaders of the Nagorno-Karabakh region have decided to leave due to fears of ethnic cleansing. Consequently, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced plans to accommodate up to 40,000 refugees. Given Azerbaijan’s perception of Armenians as adversaries and the absence of promises for future autonomy, Armenians residing in the Karabakh region are increasingly inclined to seek refuge in Armenia.

Evaluating Azerbaijan’s Strategic Calculus

Economic Dominance and Military Strength

Azerbaijan’s relative economic dominance and military strength over Armenia contributed to this outcome. Azerbaijan received military support from Turkiye and Israel, as evident during the 2020 Conflict. The 2020 Conflict lasted for 44 days, with Azerbaijan gaining territories with minimal loss, boosting the army’s morale and confidence. For Armenia, after the 2020 military defeat, Pashinyan faced backlash and protests after the defeat. Nevertheless, nothing changed in Armenia regarding defence capabilities and diplomatic understandings with other major powers. In recent clashes, Armenia was reluctant to get involved in fighting and thus, separatist leaders were left on their own. An isolated and weakened Armenia, with its security reliant solely on Russia, found itself unable to withstand the military might of Azerbaijan.

Geopolitical Context and Russia’s Inaction

The geopolitical context favoured Baku’s decisive action at this juncture. For Russia, the South Caucasus region represents the “near abroad,” a post-Soviet space where Russia has historically exerted dominance. However, due to the ongoing Ukraine-Russia War, Russia is strained and overstretched. Moreover, Russia has long been Armenia’s security guarantor, but Armenia’s recent alignment with the United States, exemplified by Armenia conducting its first-ever Joint Military operation, did not go well with Russia. All these factors contributed to Russia’s inaction in providing support to Armenia. Moreover, Putin would have made a strategic calculation not to confront Azerbaijan at this moment, as exemplified by Russia criticising Pashinyan recently. On 25th September, Russia’s Foreign Minister went a step further and released a letter criticising the Armenian leadership for succumbing to Western influences and for having an inconsistent stand with Azerbaijan.

Challenging International Law and Calculated Risks

Lastly, it is essential to acknowledge that the conventional understanding of international law has been challenged in the recent past, most notably by nations like Russia. Azerbaijan’s leaders recognized the changing global dynamics and took calculated risks, aiming to integrate Nagorno-Karabakh with the expected consent of major global players in the near future. This will further depend on Azerbaijan’s willingness to provide security cover and autonomy to ethnic Armenians.

Geopolitical Implications for the South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan’s success not only demonstrates its military strength but also marks a substantial change in the power dynamics of the region. The region has historically seen major powers like Russia, the United States, Turkiye, and Iran vying for influence.

 For Russia, which sees the South Caucasus as part of its “near abroad”, this shift will necessitate a reassessment of its position. Russia’s inaction marked a departure from the historical involvement it has played. International observers are highlighting a multifaceted rationale behind Russia’s decision-making, one that extends beyond its engagement in the Ukraine war. Some reports suggest back-channel talks between Azerbaijan and Russia before the offensive. Despite Russia’s non-involvement, Moscow is still playing an administrative role in facilitating talks between Azerbaijan authorities and Nagorno-Karabakh leaders.

Similarly, the United States will have to recalibrate its stance carefully, considering its energy security interests, the Armenian diaspora in the USA, and regional stability issues. Turkiye, a long-standing supporter of Azerbaijan, is gaining prominence, which began with the second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. Turkiye supported Azerbaijan’s forces by providing cutting-edge war technology and TB-2 drones. The future geopolitical aspirations of Turkey and Azerbaijan, pertaining to establishing a land corridor that would connect Turkey to Azerbaijan’s primary territory through the regions of Nakhchivan and Armenia, are poised to garner significant scrutiny and attention in the international arena.

Europe remains in a dilemma as nations like France have criticised Azerbaijan’s actions, and they are seeking to avoid a direct clash with Azerbaijan. After the Ukraine War, for diversification of energy sources, Azerbaijan established itself as one of the major energy suppliers to Europe, as evidenced by the European Commission’s agreement to double Azerbaijan’s purchases by 2027.

The South Caucasus region finds itself at a historical crossroads. Consequently, the unfolding humanitarian crisis carries profound implications and changes in the South Caucasus landscape. For Armenia and especially for Prime Minister Pashinyan, the future looks rather bleak. He is facing protests and calls for resignation. Pashinyan’s signal of a departure from Russia is already evident, and the potential for rapprochement between a democratic Armenia and the West looms large. In the long term, it becomes increasingly clear that a democratic Armenia aligns closely with Western interests. For Azerbaijan, there is an opportunity to integrate Nagorno-Karabakh without more bloodshed, as military triumph alone is insufficient for peace. The option of granting autonomy and rights to Nagorno-Karabakh inhabitants, as previously mentioned by President Aliyev, should be explored. If not, Azerbaijan could face prolonged local resistance by ethnic Armenians, potentially transforming the nature of warfare in the region.

The author is a Ph.D. Candidate at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. And holds a Master in International Relations from Jawaharlal Nehru University as well.  Twitter at https://twitter.com/radhey_wadhwa

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