With France and Spain set to meet in one of the most anticipated matches of the FIFA World Cup 2026, prediction markets are leaning towards Didier Deschamps’ side as favourites to reach the final.
While the gap is far from overwhelming, traders across both regulated and decentralised prediction platforms give France a clear edge, largely because of their squad depth, tournament consistency and the form of Kylian Mbappe.
France lead the race to the final
On the US-regulated prediction platform Kalshi, France are given a clear edge over Spain to reach the World Cup final, with implied probabilities in the mid-40s for France and around 30 per cent for Spain.
The numbers suggest that while Spain remain very much in contention, market sentiment currently favours Les Bleus to book their place in the final. The match is on Tuesday, July 14, at AT&T Stadium in Dallas.
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts based on the likelihood of an event happening. Prices fluctuate in real time depending on how traders assess each team’s chances, making them a useful indicator of public sentiment rather than a guaranteed forecast.
France also favourites to lift the trophy
The confidence in France extends beyond the semi-final.
Kalshi’s outright World Cup market gives France a clear lead as the favourites to win the tournament, while Spain are second, with Argentina and England close behind. Exact percentages vary with time and volume, but the pattern consistently shows France as the team to beat.
Polymarket tells a similar story
The trend is almost identical on Polymarket, one of the world’s largest decentralised prediction platforms.
Its latest outright World Cup market places France at around 35–40 per cent to win the tournament, with Spain at roughly 20 per cent and Argentina and England close behind, typically in the 14–18 per cent range. These numbers shift with game outcomes and trading volume, but the relative ranking is stable.
Why are traders backing France?
France’s status as favourites reflects more than reputation.
Deschamps’ side have looked among the tournament’s most balanced teams, combining defensive solidity with an attack led by Kylian Mbappe, who heads into the semi-final with eight goals, joint-top scorer with Lionel Messi in the tournament.
Spain, meanwhile, have impressed with their possession-based football and youthful energy, led by teenage sensation Lamine Yamal. Their victories over Portugal and Belgium reinforced their credentials, but markets still view Luis de la Fuente’s side as slight outsiders against the defending finalists.
Prediction markets do not determine results
Ultimately, prediction markets do not determine results. They simply reflect where money and public confidence are flowing before kick-off.
And for now, the market is backing France, who are chasing a third consecutive World Cup final berth.
