Falling prices, higher adoption of 3G services, projected demand for 4G, rising internet penetration and the ability of e-commerce portals to enter into deals with handset makers would see India overtake China in smartphone growth by 2019. According to HSBC estimates, India, which in 2014 was the third largest market for smart phones with shipments of 81 million units (30% penetration), giving a 6% market share globally, would see shipments of 259 million units accounting for 12% market share by 2019.
By then smartphone penetration in the country would reach around 65%. Currently, penetration of smart phones in China stands at 95% while the global average is 72%.
China has been the volume growth engine since 2013. However, given China’s smartphone penetration has reached 95% in 2014, further growth will be derived from other emerging countries with relatively low smartphone penetration. By geographic breakdown, based on IDC projections, HSBC has estimated that smartphone shipments would grow at a 2014-19 CAGR of 26% in India, followed by19% in West Asia and Africa, 8% in Latin America and 5% in China.
