India’s crude imports from Russia are expected to remain very strong before the November 21 wind-down deadline, according to global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler. It estimates Russian oil imports at 1.8-1.9 million barrels per day during the period as refiners continue to prioritise the most economical barrels ahead of the sanctions cutoff.
After the deadline, flows are, however, likely to decline noticeably in the near term, pariculay through December-January, because any cargoes after November 21 from Rosneft or Lukoil would carry significantly higher sanctions risk, analysts at Kpler noted.
“Based on current understanding, no Indian refiner other than Nayara’s already-sanctioned Vadinar facility is likely to take the risk of dealing with OFAC-designated entities, and buyers will need time to reconfigure contracts, routing, ownership structures, and payment channels,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler.
With crude linked to Rosneft and Lukoil now effectively treated as a “sanctioned molecule”, Indian refiners (aside from Nayara) are expected to pause direct purchases after November 21.
As per Kpler data, loadings have already slowed since October 21, though it is still early for definitive conclusions given Russia’s agility in deploying intermediaries, shadow fleets, and workaround financing.
“Refiners will likely proceed more cautiously, relying on unsanctioned traders, blended barrels, and more complex logistics to minimise OFAC exposure. Russian supply will not disappear but will increasingly move through opaque channels,” Kpler said.
Recent tanker activity suggests a notable shift in Russian crude trading behaviour, marked by mid-voyage diversions between India and China and Ship-to-Ship (STS) transfers at unusual locations such as off Mumbai’s coast, far from the typical transfer zones near the Singapore Strait. These developments reflect evolving logistical tactics by Russian exporters.
Russian crude loadings to India are tracking at ~982 kbd as of November 20 (lowest since Oct 2022), sharply down from the 1.75 Mbd average seen over January–September 2025.
What is driving the decline?
The decline is driven primarily by OFAC sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, the two largest Russian suppliers to Indian refiners. While volumes may still shift, as some in-transit vessels could revise their final destinations, the trend shows India-bound flows are softening.
Importantly, there’s been a noticeable uptick in undisclosed cargoes leaving Russian ports, Kpler noted. Many of these tankers had previously been discharged in India, indicating a potential continuation of flows via less transparent channels.
“However, diversions to other Asian buyers cannot be ruled out. For now, November buying remains fluid, but the drop in declared India-bound volumes aligns with expectations as refiners move cautiously ahead of the November 21 OFAC wind-down deadline,” Ritolia said.
Meanwhile, Indian refiners are actively diversifying supply, increasing intake from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE), Latin America (Brazil, Colombia, Guyana), West Africa, and North America (U.S., Canada) to offset lower Russian volumes.
What does Kepler say?
Freight costs on long-haul routes will cap substitution potential, but the overall import basket is likely to widen, Kpler notes.
India does receive Russian crude from suppliers other than Rosneft and Lukoil, and those flows remain legal for now. This means that crude supplied by non-designated Russian entities — for example Surgutneftegaz, Gazprom Neft, or independent traders using non-sanctioned intermediaries — can still be legally purchased by Indian refiners, as long as no sanctioned entity, vessel, bank, or service provider is involved.
Kpler however highlighted that in the longer term, the trajectory will depend on how strictly Western nations enforce secondary sanctions and whether further measures — such as sanctioning all Russian barrels or penalising refineries that process any Russian crude — are introduced. “Tighter enforcement would suppress volumes further, while lighter-touch implementation could allow some recovery through intermediaries,” said Ritolia.
Overall, Russian crude flows are entering a phase of heightened uncertainty and volatility as the supply chain adapts.
