India’s economy will likely grow by 6.8% in the next financial year, Crisil Ratings said on Wednesday, adding that the country will become an upper middle-income nation by 2031 with the economy doubling to $7 trillion.
The Indian economy would take support from domestic structural reforms and cyclical levers and can retain — perhaps even improve — its growth prospects to become the third-largest economy by 2031, Crisil said.
“After a better-than-expected 7.6% this fiscal, India’s real GDP growth will likely moderate to 6.8% in fiscal 2025,” said the Crisil India Outlook report.
The economists led by chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran recently said the Indian economy will become the third largest economy in the next three years with a $5 trillion economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected the tag for India by 2027-28.
India, with a GDP size of $3.7 trillion, is currently the fifth largest economy in the world, after the US, China, Japan and Germany.
“A projected average expansion of 6.7% in this period will make India the third-largest economy in the world and lift per capita income to the upper-middle income category by 2031,” Crisil said.
Crisil expects the economy to expand to $ 6.7 trillion by fiscal 2031, which will also mark the year when India enters the club of upper-middle-income countries with per-capita income rising to $4,500, Crisil said.
As per the World Bank definition, lower-middle income countries are those with per-capita income of $1,000-4,000, and upper-middle income countries are those with per capita income between $4,000-12,000.