By Farooq Wani
Polls in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) will be held on September 18, 25 and October 1 to elect 90 members of the J&K Legislative Assembly and the three or key four issues will be Article 370, law and order, terrorism and socio-economic stability.
These elections are likely to be different to the ones held previously owing to the fact that the politics of this region is no longer limited to or centered on the four traditional political parties, viz. NC, PDP, INC and BJP.
Post Article 370 and 35A abrogation, the significant change in J&K is that separatist leaders who had hitherto refused to participate in elections and their relatives have shown interest in participating in this month’s polls. This is definitely a positive development both nationally and globally as it outrightly debunks Pakistan’s Kashmir ‘dispute’ narrative.
Though this isn’t the first time that both parties have aligned with each other, yet the focus is centered on the impact of the current Cong-NC alliance on the elections, and by extension on the future of J&K. Viewed minutely, differences over seat sharing persist. The 51:32 seat-sharing arrangement under which the NC will contest in 51 of the 90 assembly seats independently, while the Congress will contest in 32 seems just.
Both parties have also agreed to have a “friendly, but disciplined contest” on five seats in the UT and have given a seat each to the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Panthers Party as well, which suggests the possibility of cross voting and smaller parties playing “kingmaker” roles post polls.
One cannot say with certainty that this alliance will form the next government in J&K. However, since the common aim of Kashmir-based parties is to stop BJP’s political juggernaut, even though it has a strong presence in Jammu.
There isn’t much public enthusiasm for the polls as of now, but it is expected to reach a feverish pitch closer to September 18. For now, it would be prudent to adopt a wait and watch approach and avoid prematurely predicting the outcome, but there’s no doubt that there is a multi-cornered contest in the offing.
What is interesting is the entry of separatists in the polls. The decision of Barkati, a popular religious cleric, to contest from Shopian in South Kashmir is one such example. Readers would recall that he played a lead role in pro-freedom rallies and at funerals of slain militants, including Hizb-ul-Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani in July 2016. However his nomination has been rejected due to lack of affidavit.
Even some leaders of the proscribed Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) have decided to participate in the poll fray as independent candidates. While this may or may not have a major impact on local politics, it does send the positive message that democracy is thriving in J&K.
As regards the Congress-NC alliance, there are indications of political undercurrents due to dissatisfaction over nominations and seat sharing, and it is likely that some NC supporters secretly want the Congress to win, and vice versa.
With the smaller parties in the fray likely to play spoilsport by ensuring division of votes, the NC will find it difficult to form a government in J&K. The lack of consensus on the five “friendly seats” suggests a free-for-all vote casting scenario, which may queer the political fortunes of both and allow a third party to benefit.
It is a scenario of political opportunism at best-cross party movement is taking place and the local political ecosystem is unstable. The JeI is a divided entity while PDP is desperately seeking a political comeback, which is evident from its decision to welcome prominent separatist leader and former moderate Hurriyat leader Syed Saleem Geelani into its fold.
Aga Syed Muntazir, the son of Aga Syed Hassan Al Moosvi, President of the Anjuman Sharie Shian and a constituent of the separatist Hurriyat Conference, has also joined the PDP and will contest the polls from the Budgam assembly seat.
As the Aga family has been influential for decades, he has the potential to swing the decisive Shia vote and Muntazir’s claim that he is joining mainstream politics and contesting elections solely for raising the voice of the marginalised youth may find traction within the younger generation.
In Pulwama district’s Rajpora Assembly constituency, Altaf Ahmad Bhat (Altaf Zadoori), the brother of jailed separatist leader Bashir Ahmad Bhat (Peer Saifullah), is contesting on behalf of AIP. He is known for his social work. Similarly, Munir Khan, the younger brother of jailed separatist leader Nayeem Khan, is contesting the polls from Pattan under the banner of the Jammu and Kashmir Nationalist People’s Front.
As far as the BJP is concerned, it is faced with a very fluid situation both in Jammu and the Valley. The hold it had in Jammu in 2014 has weakened considerably and Independent candidates impacting vote distribution can be anticipated.
Former Hurriyat Working Committee member Dr G. M. Hubbi has welcomed the decision of his son Javed Hubi, who is a prominent lawyer in Budgam to contest on an Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) ticket saying that he has always been in favour of holding elections.
He told this author that “I have always challenged the Pakistan narrative on Kashmir. I could never agree with it. I remember one emotional outburst wherein I said that while I favoured an independent Kashmir, it should not be determined by Pakistan, and if that happens, I will leave J&K and settle in Pathankot (Punjab),” he said.
Hubbi mentioned that both former Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and General Pervez Musharraf displayed statesman-like qualities during their 2001 Agra summit meeting. He added that “Today we are seeing Vajpayee’s vision of a peaceful and democratic J&K unfolding before our very eyes…. You take it in writing from me; electoral politics is the only feasible and reliable option.”
While recommending the need for Indo-Pakistan dialogue for ending irritants ranging from Sir Creek to J&K and Siachen, he blamed the existing “double power centre” in Pakistan for the ongoing animosity due to which both countries are suffering. Adding that the current situation in Pakistan is beyond description, Hubbi cautioned that India has to be very vigilant to prevent any kind of mischief by Islamabad brought on by its own miserable and violent circumstances.”
Participation of separatist elements in the polls isn’t something to be ignored as these are the very people who once actively boycotted elections. Similarly, JeI supporters in J&K who earlier used to describe participation in elections as “Haram”, or “unlawful” are today, participating in it. This is a huge change, a victory for democracy and India. These developments are indicators of the changing narrative in J&K and are definitely a welcome change.
(The author is Editor Brighter Kashmir, Author, TV commentator, political analyst and columnist.)
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