By Maj Gen (Dr) Ashok Kumar, VSM (Retd)
India and China have been involved in managing their borders/ Line of Actual Control (LAC) in some way or the other since their independence. There has been a near full-fledged war in 1962 besides multiple skirmishes, the latest having taken place in Galwan on 15 Jun 2020 wherein India lost 20 soldiers including commanding officer of a unit. This happened during the Chinese transgressions at multiple locations in Eastern Ladakh which changed the status quo as existing in Apr-May 2020. There have been ups and downs in various actions taken by both the countries since then at political, diplomatic and military levels. There are simmering inputs about the positive development towards the resolution of this ongoing stand-off. What are the exact contours of possible resolution are yet to unfold. Whether the statements related to 75 percent resolution relates to only quantifying what has been achieved by creating buffers in some locations or acceptance by both the countries to go back to pre-Apr/May2020 locations by dismantling the infrastructure created in the run up to the transgressions or thereafter will be known later. The main challenge thereafter lies in handling the transgressions by China in Depsang plains and Demchok besides going beyond the claim line of 1959.
While all the developments towards the resolutions will emerge, one thing is going to remain and that is enhanced infrastructure growth as well as enhanced deployment of troops as compared to pre-Apr/May 2020 levels. The possibility of future recurrence of this nature will always remain high, more so given the trust deficit created by Chinese actions wherein it disregarded all bilateral agreements including norms of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs). Both China as well as India are ambitious countries but their approaches are entirely different. While China is planning to replace the lone superpower of the world, the USA but India advances the concept of multipolarity. While China establishes the relations with varying countries based on its own need, India advances the concept of ‘VASUDHAIV KUTUMBKAM’ which became evident even during the G-20 summit. While China believes in the ‘debt trapping’ of various countries including its close friends for further exploitation, Indian assistance is based on humanitarian grounds wherein it does not distinguish between friends or foes. The assistance to Turkiye during the Earthquake stands out as a testimony of this noble approach.
It is quite natural for the different countries to follow the different paths towards their development as well as managing their interstate relations. These happen due to varying reasons including the form of governance being followed by the countries. It is therefore natural for China and India to adopt different approaches while dealing with other countries, but the main issues arise while dealing with each other. The current profile of competition and conflict will be more challenging as both the countries reach 100 years of their respective independence close on the heels of one another.
India became independent on 15 Aug 1947 almost two years prior to China assuming the current form of Government on 01 Oct 1949. China is known to look ahead for too much in future and plan its national growth and ambitions. In 2013 itself, China prioritised sequencing of handling its various conflicts including that with India. It has also given its plan of military revolutionalisation wherein it wants PLA to be fully informatised by 2027, become AI superpower by 2030, wants to reach the status of intelligentized PLA by 2035 and complete the military modernisation by 2049 when it celebrates its centenary of independence. The full military modernisation planned to be achieved is not related to the threats it faces but also aligned to its future ambition of becoming the sole superpower of the world. The manifestation will result in China getting ahead of the USA not only in critical technologies (where it has already become the lead nation in the world) but in other aspects of military power components including enhancement of its nuclear arsenals. China watchers will confirm that China is working in a methodical manner to achieve its planned objectives. While moving along this path, China also wants to achieve the status of a fully developed society by the year 2035 close to 14 years prior to centenary celebrations.
Seeing its current focus on infrastructure development in the border areas with India (where it already had substantial lead), it is reasonable to assume that infrastructure will not pose any constraint for employment of its forces and resources by 2049 or in the decade leading to it. It has some distinct advantages now to utilise its infrastructure gradient now in its favour against India where India is still catching up. As China goes ahead towards its centenary, India’s own infrastructure would have more modernised and developed given the focused development of border infrastructure in India.
Wei Ling in 2019 forecasted that China is working towards rejuvenation of the country which it wants to achieve in totality by 2049. It therefore clearly emerges that China has been working to a plan to develop its society as well as all other constituents of its Compressive National Power (CNP) including military and wants to place it in numero uno position in the world by 2049, its centenary year.
Though a little late, India has also started building up long term plans. It unveiled its ‘VIKSIT BHARAT’ plan by 2047 when it reaches its centenary year. The plan was launched on 11 Dec 2023 while it was in the making for a few years. It found place in the interim budget prior to the parliamentary elections as well as in the full-fledged budget after the elections.The broad contours of this plan are also now available where all the stakeholders have been asked to work to achieve this national aim. These are going to play a pivotal role in developing India’s CNP specially towards its aim to become a developed nation ‘by 2047 when it celebrates its centenary year. As both China and India have made their ambitions plans for a major transformation by the time they reach their centenary years, what is interesting to analyse as to what could be the conflict escalation scenarios between China and India then and how it compares to what it exists today.
In addition to what is stated as part of ‘VIKSIT BHARAT 2047’, there are many more activities which are being undertaken by India which are going to supplement our desire to become a developed nation. India is also developing indigenous capability to equip its Armed forces which will definitely change the profile of the Armed forces. This will not only result in selective response to Chinese actions in Multi Domain Operations (MDO) but will make it capable of neutralising the threats in whatever manner they emerge. The evolving contours of Jointness, Integration and Integrated Theatres will propel India to a different level altogether.
India has already become the fifth largest of the world and is expected to reach the third position by 2027 and beyond, only behind US and China. If there are no disruptions in the Indian growth story in times to come, it may challenge USA and China as well at least on some economic parameters to reach the numero uno position.
Since the centenary plans of China and India are likely to have confrontational contours, it will surely be ‘Disadvantage China’ in 2047 and beyond. It is therefore strategically wise to keep China stalemated till then and let it not enter the full conventional conflict. At the same time, continue building your own capacities with a renewed pitch. With every passing year, it will be beyond the Chinese capability to adversely affect the national interests of India. The above analysis also factors that either China or India will not get involved in a major conflict with the other nations as the same will change/ disrupt the calculations and the predictions adversely. Keeping an eye on the Geo- political developments, leveraging technology and relentless progress are key to create an “India with a difference” by 2047 in its centenary year capable of facing all odds including that from China.
The author is Kargil War veteran and DG of CENJOWS
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