By Reena Singh,
In 2023, humanity crossed the 1.5°C threshold, a critical limit often seen as a guardrail for climate stability. According to the World Meteorological Organization, this year could be even hotter. In India, the mercury has climbed by 0.7°C since 1901, while the monsoon rains — that fed 50% of the country’s agriculture lands — have dwindled by 6%, particularly over the fertile Indo-Gangetic Plains and the lush Western Ghats. Yet, paradoxically, central India is witnessing more intense deluges during the monsoon. This climate conundrum presents a Gordian knot for policymakers: the imperative to green the economy and bolster climate resilience tugs against the need for new policies that may weigh on short-term growth.
India’s third national communication and initial adaptation communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2023 has projected climate change impacts on major crops. Despite ambitious pledges under the intermediate emission stabilisation pathway (RCP 4.5 pathway — where average temperature is projected to rise by 2.4 °C by the end of the century), crop losses in India could bleed the economy $28.6-54.8 billion between 2030 and 2050. These losses (both food and non-food crops) could be ballooning to $612 billion-1 trillion by 2050-2100. The losses would be much higher under high emission pathway RCP 8.5. With nearly 45.8% of India’s workforce tilling the soil, contributing 17.58% to the GDP, and feeding the world’s largest population, the stakes are sky-high. The climate crisis, however, is a game of Russian roulette, with the most marginalised farmers facing the greatest peril.
The policy compass, thus far, has pointed towards adaptation: crop insurance and the quest for seeds that can withstand climate’s fury. Last year, 60% of wheat fields were sown with heat-resistant varieties, a figure set to rise to 80%. Yet, there’s an elephant in the room: agriculture’s own carbon footprint. India’s vast croplands (approximately 169 million hectares), largest bovine population (300 million), and the world’s largest rice-producing area (45 million hectare) have made it a breadbasket. But it has also made India a top emitter, responsible for 13% of global agricultural greenhouse gases (GHGs), according to Climate Watch 2023.
The GHG emissions from India’s farms have four horsemen: methane from waterlogged rice fields and bovine belches; nitrous oxide from fertilisers and manure; methane and nitrous oxide emissions from crop burning; and the often-overlooked carbon-dioxide (CO2) from energy-guzzling irrigation and application of inputs such as fertilisers and pesticides. Our study at ICRIER (Reena Singh and Ashok Gulati) paints a fuller picture, including these downstream emissions. The results (graphic) reveal a climb from 448 million tonnes (MT) of CO2 equivalent in 2000 to 621 MT in 2019 — the most recent data available with national GHG inventory. If we include these, agriculture’s share of emissions balloons to 19.83%. And if we further include emissions from transport, food-processing and packaging, the fabric of the problem only thickens.
Agriculture is the kingpin of nitrous oxide and methane, gases 273 and 27.2 times mightier, respectively, than CO2 in their warming prowess in 100 years’ time horizon. In India, the sector is the chief culprit for 73% and 75% of these emissions respectively. In 20 years, methane will be more impactful and could warm the temperature 80.8 times more than CO2. Thus, sharp reduction in methane emissions from rice paddies and bovines can deliver a net cooling effect within a relatively short period. Despite this, agriculture has been given a hall pass from climate negotiations in the country.
Given food security and livelihood needs, India has exempted agriculture from its stringent energy reduction targets. Yet, this leniency, fuelled by subsidies for power, fertilisers, and food (through assured procurement of rice at minimum support price), threatens to veer the country off its course towards net-zero emissions by 2070. The way forward calls for a radical transformation — eschewing old, carbon-intensive methods for innovative, low-carbon practices. This pivot is essential not just for sustainability but for survival.
The path forward is clear: slash greenhouse gases, foster a greener agriculture, and harness new technologies and policies. The mantra is to avoid the carbon-heavy sins of the past: choose direct seeded rice over flooded fields, balanced fertilisation over nitrogen excess, diversify crops away from rice, and penetrate advanced technologies to the fields, for example, precision agriculture, sex-sorted AI semen technology, etc. Subsidies should no longer prop up the villains of this climate tale but support the heroes: legumes, oilseeds, maize, vegetables, fruits, millets, and low-carbon food-grains. This will not only reduce Indian agriculture’s carbon footprint but also lead to better health outcomes through a diverse range of nutritious foods, and help India achieve the nutritional target under the sustainable development goal by 2030.
As carbon finance takes root, offering a green bounty for those who tread lightly on the earth, it beckons farmers to join the crusade for a low-carbon future. The incentive? Carbon credits, a currency for the climate-conscious, rewarding those who sow the seeds of change.
The author is a senior fellow at ICRIER.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.
