By PC Mohanan
India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.9, below the replacement rate of 2.1, per a UN report. However, a lower TFR will not immediately translate to zero population growth due to declining mortality and the past demographic momentum, explains PC Mohanan
Population projections per UN & the Indian govt
The UN Population Fund’s State of the World Population 2025 report deals with the present fertility crisis, changing family aspirations and reproductive choices. It also provides population estimates for countries, based on surveys and interviews. The report gave the population of India as 146.4 crore in 2025. This is not a new number. The UN Population Division in its ‘World Population Prospects 2024’ had given the same number using medium variant assumptions. This 2024 report had also projected that India’s population will keep growing till 2064 when it will reach 170 crore before declining. As against this, the official projection for 2025 released by the National Commission on Population under the ministry of health & family welfare is only 141.5 crore. Population projections are dependent on the assumptions of fertility, mortality and migration and the demographic models that use these inputs. The total fertility rates (TFR) is an important input in the projections. This is the average number of children a woman would have in her reproductive life.
Replacement-level fertility and demographic momentum
The UN projection has assumed TFR to be 1.9 for India. The latest Sample Registration Report published by the Registrar General of India (RGI) for 2019-21 estimated the TFR at 2.0. The validity of population projections depend on the use of reliable demographic parameters, most of which are normally derived from civil registration data. A TFR of 2.1 is accepted as the rate necessary for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next. A lower rate will not immediately translate to zero population growth due to declining mortality and the past demographic momentum. Nationally, the TFR was 2.3 in 2015 and came down to the replacement level of 2.1 in 2019 and is now below this replacement level. However, states like UP and Bihar had much higher TFR at 2.7 and 3.0, respectively, even in 2021. These are survey estimates derived from a large panel of households studied continuously by the RGI.
Making census the basis of projections
Some of the uncertainties regarding the size of our population could have been addressed if we had our regular ‘decennial’ census in 2021. The unbroken chain of census counts broke first due to the Covid pandemic and then for unknown reasons. This census work will now start in 2026 and complete in March 2027, with the notification to conduct the census published on Monday. The census data has been the base for many administrative exercises like recasting administrative boundaries, identifying census towns, reservation quota for reserved communities, quantifying targeted scheme beneficiaries apart from being the main reference data for socio-political debates.
Issues with civil registration data
There are countries in Europe with perfect civil registration that they have no need for a population census. The incompleteness in the registration of births and deaths has been one of the major deficiencies in our population data. Though it is compulsory to report births and deaths to the Registrar of Births and Deaths under the Registration of Births and Deaths Act, 1969, there are issues with the actual compliance. This was most evident during the Covid pandemic with no official data forthcoming. The annual reports on civil registration for 2021 and 2022 were released only recently. As per these reports the number of registered deaths increased from 81.2 lakh in 2020 to 102.2 lakh in 2021 and decreased to 86.5 lakh in 2022. The sample registration system (SRS) was introduced to overcome the problems due to incomplete civil registration. The latest SRS report is available for 2021. The 2021 report gives a big jump in the crude death rate from 6.0 in 2020 to 7.5 in 2021. Though these are sample based estimates with certain error margins, the Covid impact is clearly visible.
Census data & population register
The forthcoming census— March 1, 2027, is the reference date for most of India — will now have a caste enumeration. The last such caste data was from the 1931 census. Superintendents in charge of each province prepared the list of castes relevant in their province and counted people according to this list. In our time, Bihar and Telengana conducted such a census. Karnataka now intends to update its 2015 caste census. Unlike a state-based caste count, a nationally organised count has to contend with large inter-state migrant population. The practice of excluding castes from other states as done for SC/ST population will be questioned in the de-facto method used in the census. Given the experience of the Socio-Economic Caste Census in 2011 where caste as stated by the respondent was recorded, only a pre-specified list of castes can bring out meaningful aggregation. The use of census data for updating the 2011 population register and its subsequent use in the preparation of a national register of citizens is mercifully less discussed now.
The writer is former acting chairperson, National Statistical Commission.
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