By Atanu Biswas, Professor of statistics, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata

Anéantir, which translates to “Annihilate,” “Destroy”, or “Obliterate”, is a 730-page novel written by Michel Houellebecq, one of France’s most provocative authors, published during the 2022 French presidential campaign. It’s in a setting of the run-up to the 2027 French presidential election when the outgoing youthful president, similar to Emmanuel Macron, was completing his second term in office. Despite Marine Le Pen’s resignation as the National Rally’s leader, far-right candidate Éric Zemmour continues to stir up trouble. The story blends romance, mystery, politics, and espionage.

The spectre of ultra-rights and neo-fascism is haunting Europe now — 175 years after the Communist Manifesto was first published. The far right is spreading its tentacles across the continent. And Le Pen certainly was the face of the European far right, long before Giorgia Meloni rose to prominence.

On March 31, after a court found Le Pen guilty of a massive scheme to swindle funds from the European Parliament, she was prohibited from running for public office with immediate effect, including for President in 2027. Though she planned to file an appeal, the procedure might take months or perhaps years, solidifying the ban as the country prepares for elections.

It’s certainly a political earthquake. Le Pen, the leader of the far-right anti-immigration party National Rally (RN), may have been within a handshake’s distance of becoming President of France in 2027. She could have won 34-37% votes in the first round, according to an Ifop survey released by the Journal du Dimanche daily shortly before the court decision. Her fate in the second round of the run-off would have then depended on whether all her rivals banded together to vote against her.

Understandably, RN, which was supported by several traditional right-wing parties, responded angrily, calling the punishment a travesty and an assault on democracy. The case has been referred to as a political witch-hunt by Le Pen. Her punishment was described as an “intrusion” into the electoral process by RN vice-president Louis Aliot, who was also found guilty, saying it will “leave an indelible stain on the history of our democracy”.

The spectrums of French society are poised to become unstable due to the political tempest. While the French Socialist Party asserted that the “independence of the justice system and the rule of law” must be respected by everyone, Laurent Wauquiez of the traditional right Les Républicains party claimed it was “not very healthy in democracy”. And as was to be expected, Le Pen received backing from far-right European leaders, including Geert Wilders of the Netherlands and Viktor Orban of Hungary. “Je suis Marine!” (meaning “I am Marine!”), Orban wrote on X, in reference to the catchphrase “Je suis Charlie,” which was extensively used to support the Charlie Hebdo satirical publication following its 2015 shooting incident.

In a similar instance, Calin Georgescu, a far-right pro-Russian candidate, was barred from competing in Romania’s May presidential election rerun by their central election board in March. But the impact of the French earthquake is widespread.
With almost 13 million votes, Le Pen gave the far right its largest-ever total in a French presidential election in 2022. After losing the European elections to RN by a margin of 32% to 15%, President Macron swiftly called for a snap parliamentary election last year. RN garnered the most votes in the first round, but a left-leaning alliance strategically defeated it in the second round.

The French far right is understandably shocked by Le Pen’s conviction. Now, RN must choose Le Pen’s replacement for the 2027 election. Most have identified Jordan Bardella, her 29-year-old protégé who took over as party leader in 2021, as the most likely candidate. Incidentally, in Anéantir, in 2027, a young far-right candidate is perilously close to the front-runner in the polls! Additionally, it should be noted that Macron was 39 when he was elected in 2017, making him the youngest President in the Fifth Republic’s history.

Is this Le Pen’s “political death”? Nothing is certain in politics. Although the court verdict undermines her drive for respectability and destabilises the RN for the time being, it could strengthen the far right eventually. It may support the victimisation narrative — as it happened recently with Donald Trump across the Atlantic. Overall, the already-divided French society is in a state of stupefaction, but the far right’s future might not be harmed by the Le Pen conviction.

Although 61% of respondents to a Cluster 17 poll for Le Point believed that her punishment was appropriate, the RN reported that in the four days following Le Pen’s conviction the party added 20,000 new members and half a million people signed a petition in her support on its website. With Le Pen’s conviction, Bardella may now be holding a winning hand, as many analysts believe, including the ability to strategically weaponise his mentor’s legal setback.

There’s a chance that France may soon enter an uncharted territory where far-right political organisations not only gain popularity but also take control of its political landscape. At this critical juncture of civilisation, the Le Pen verdict might ultimately prove to be a powerful impetus for altering the path of history. Would Houellebecq write a revised novel as well?