The Modi government gave central government employees and pensioners good news at the beginning of 2025. The government announced the 8th Pay Commission on January 16, 2025. However, as September draws to a close, the Commission’s official notification, Terms of Reference (ToR), and the appointment of members have still been awaited. This has caused concerns among employees and unions, and the big question is: will the 8th Pay Commission have to wait until 2028 for implementation?
Why is the 2028 question being raised?
This question is not out of place. Previous experience shows that a pay panel takes two to three years from formation to implementation. If the same pattern is repeated this time, a wait until 2028 is inevitable.
Let’s take a look at the timelines of the previous two pay panels – from announcement to implementation – to get an idea how much time it might take for the implementation of the 8th pay panel recommendations.
Timeline of the 6th Pay Commission
The 6th pay panel was constituted in October 2006.
The commission submitted its report to the government in March 2008.
The government accepted the report in August 2008 and implemented the panel’s recommendations retrospectively from January 1, 2006.
So, it took approximately 22–24 months from the formation to implementation of 6th Pay Commission.
Timeline of the 7th Pay Commission
It was constituted in February 2014 and the ToRs were finalized by March 2014.
The commission submitted its report in November 2015.
The government accepted the recommendations in June 2016 and implemented them from January 1, 2016.
This means that it took approximately 33 months (2 years and 9 months) from its formation to implementation.
This comparison clearly shows that both commissions took an average of 2–3 years.
Current status of the 8th Pay Commission
The big announcement was made on January 16, 2025.
But the ToR or list of members has not yet been released.
This means the actual process hasn’t even begun.
If the commission is formed in the coming months and the report takes two years to prepare, it would be ready by 2027. After that, the government will also need time to consider, amend, and approve the report. Therefore, implementation by 2028 is a realistic possibility. Although the commission’s recommendations will be implemented retrospectively from January 2026, giving arrears of the delayed period to employees and pensioners.
Why is this commission important?
For government employees, the Pay Commission doesn’t just bring salary increases; it also affects their allowances, pensions, and future financial security. Especially in this era of inflation, employees want the Commission’s work to begin soon to ease the burden of rising prices.
The commission’s recommendations are also crucial for pensioners, as they directly impact their pensions and dearness allowance (DA).
What do experts say?
Financial analysts believe that if the 7th Commission’s pattern is repeated, the 8th Commission’s report and subsequent approval will take time. Given the current delays, it is more likely to extend to 2028.
Expectations and uncertainty
Meanwhile, over 1.2 crore employees and pensioners are eagerly awaiting the Terms of Reference and appointment of key panel members. History is witness that the 6th and 7th Commissions took a long time to implement. Therefore, it would not be wrong to say that the 8th Pay Commission may not be implemented until 2028.