Nifty 50, Bank Nifty forecast: NSE Nifty was ruling near 17,900 level on Wednesday, a day before weekly F&O expiry. Chartists say that the Nifty 50 index is trading well above the resistance zone of 17700 and hence it should be heading to 18050. “Since the support for this market is at 17500-17600 which makes an unfavorable risk-reward, traders should look at picking up long positions on dips or during intraday corrections. With a smaller stop, they can project higher targets,” Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments, said. While long build up in the Bank Nifty futures, short covering in the Nifty futures and rise in the Nifty Open Interest Put-Call ratio on the back of Put writing at 17700 – 17800 levels indicates that one should continue to remain optimistic for the markets. “In the Bank Nifty, where we have seen long build-up, our advice is to go long with SL of 37300 levels,” analysts at HDFC Securities, said.
Nifty now eyes 18,050 target, rules above resistance zone; what do options data say for Bank Nifty
Nifty, Bank Nifty Outlook: NSE Nifty was ruling near 17,900 level on Wednesday, a day before weekly F&O expiry.
Updated:
Highlights
The markets failed to close above 17700; if we manage to do that, the short-term skepticism would be removed and the Nifty can scale higher towards 18000. The support lies at 17400 and as long as that holds, the current trend is bullish and we can utilize intra day corrections to accumulate long positions. Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments
Nifty OI remained flat but short-covering was seen in Bank Nifty futures as OI was down by 9 per cent. Put writing was seen at 17600 and 17700 strikes while high OI is seen at 17700 calls. Both FIIs and DIIs were buyers in cash segment. Island reversal seen on daily chart with supports at 17645 and 17555. Expect bounce-back from these levels. Resistance placed at 17785. Rahul Sharma, Director and Head - Research, JM Financial Services.
In the Bank Nifty, where we have seen long unwinding, our advice is to go long only above 37500 levels with SL of 37000. HDFC Securities
The index has respected the 17400-17450 support and bounced smartly this morning. What needs to be seen is if we can manage to close above the 17600-17700 levels as that would resume the current uptrend. This move should then take the Nifty higher to levels closer to 18000 and beyond. Until we do not break 17400 on a closing basis, the overall trend of the market continues to remain bullish and dips can be utilized to enter long positions. Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments
We had flagged off a downside move aiming 17400 or 17000 yesterday, should Nifty find it difficult to float above 17670. Though we had factored in such an outcome, we were not counting on it to unfold right away. We continue to retain this apprehension, counting on 17440-370 vicinity to arrest downside momentum, and prompt at a swing higher, but should this region fail too, we could see a drop towards 16500 right away. This though is still not the most favoured outcome, but will remain high on priority, given VIX is approaching 20.
~ Geojit
"Nifty is expected to open negative at 17430, down by almost 200 points. Nifty is opening below its support, this is a bearish sign. Nifty now has support in the 17250-17300 range and will face resistance in the 17600-17620 range. Traders can consider buy on dips with strict stop-loss as a strategy as long as Nifty is trading above 17250," said Gaurav Udani, CEO & Founder, ThincRedBlu Securities.
Major Put writing during the week was observed in 37000 strike, which remains the key support area for upsides to continue. We
feel sooner or later, money flow will increase in banking stocks, which will push the index further higher.
~ ICICI Direct
Short build up in the Bank Nifty futures, Call writing at 17800 - 17900 levels and short build up by FIIs’ in the Index Futures segment Indicates that one should be cautious on the markets. Therefore, our advise is to create short positions on every rise by keeping stop loss at 17900 level. In the Bank Nifty, where we have seen short build up, our advice is to go short with stop loss at 38000 level.
~ HDFC Securities
On Tuesday, the Bank Nifty touched an intraday low of 37351 but smart recovery was seen from lower levels. Looking at options data, 37500 Put option holds significant OI, which should act as immediate support. Hence, we expect weakness only if the Bank Nifty closes below 37500.
Sell Bank Nifty in the range of 38050-38100 Target: 37700-37600 Stop loss: 38300.
~ ICICI Direct
Nifty has started correcting since the last couple of days. Swing low of 17326 is major support only a successfully penetration of the same will lead to further correction. As per the time calculation, there are a couple of conditions at the given point of time -
~ Vishal Wagh, Head of Research, Bonanza Portfolio
Nifty after making a low at 17576, staged a smart recovery (on Tuesday). In this process, it filled the up-gap formed on September 23. In case this recovery continues and is sustained over the next 1-2 days, then Nifty will still have a chance to touch 18000. The Advance decline ratio continues to be in the negative, reflecting the broader soft sentiments. 17802-17819 is the resistance in the near term for the Nifty while 17580-17611 is the support.
~ HDFC Securities
"The index took support at the 17500 level and bounced sharply from there. The trend is still positive and dips like these can be strategically utilized to enter long positions. If the markets move higher from here, it should scale up to 17950-18000," said Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments
The Nifty OI PCR declined to 0.94 from 1.11 in the previous session, indicating there was more buildup of OI in the Call segment. Buildup of OI was seen in the 17900- 18000 Nov Calls. Combined with a fall in the option price, it indicates that call writing has happened at these strikes implying immediate resistance at these levels for the near term. Put buying was seen in the 17500 strikes indicating that certain traders were taking a bearish view.
In the coming session, the trading spot band is between 17550 and 17930,which means further upsides are likely once the immediate resistances of 17930 are taken out and weakness could emerge if the supports of 17550 are broken.
~Raushan Kumar, Derivative Analyst, IIFL Securities
"Sharp recovery from support of 17,600 - Bulls back in Business; View updated to neutral - Our Nifty Puts Target One of 300 almost got achieved; made high of 299. Best to take fresh view tomorrow after seeing US markets tonight," said Rahul Sharma, Director & Head - Research, JM Financial.
Traders were cautious after the World Bank said that East Asia and Pacific region’s recovery has been undermined by the spread of the Covid-19 delta variant, which is likely slowing economic growth and increasing inequality in the region. Our research suggests that If the market sustains the level of 59000, we can witness higher levels of 60450-60600. If the index slips by this point, it will extend its losses. Gaurav Garg, Head of Research, CapitalVia Global Research
"Nifty started correcting since last couple of day's. Swing low of 17326 is major support, only on successfully penetration of the same any big downside be expected. Else the current move is just a expiry week volatility. The current losses should be cover by next couple of days," Said Vishal Wagh, Head of Research Bonanza Portfolio.
"The index is facing significant resistance at the current zone of 17900-17950. I would consider this to be an important juncture from a trading perspective. If we have to go in for a short term correction, this is the point from where that can happen. On the flip side, if we get past 17950 on a closing basis, the Nifty can scale up higher and move towards 18050. It is a wait and watch situation where hasty decisions should be avoided," said Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments.
Momentum on the hourly chart is drying up as Nifty is facing some supply at higher level. Expect correction/profit-booking if 17,800 is broken. Bank Nifty set-up better and remains positive above 38100," said Rahul Sharma, Director & Head - Research, JM Financial.
"We expect Nifty to head towards our target of 18200 in a non-linear manner, therefore advise to follow buy on dips strategy as we don’t expect Nifty to breach strong support of 17400 levels."
~ ICICI Direct
According to Daily charts, the key support levels for the Nifty are placed at 17,780 followed by 17,635. If the index moves up the key resistance levels to watch out for are 18000 and 18125. The index is trading above its short term 5-day exponential moving average on the daily chart at around 17697. This will act as immediate support for index.
~ Trustline Securities
'Bias remains positive for 18000 with multiple supports at 17,825, 17,770, and 17,625. Bank nifty is expected to see new rally above 38,100. Auto sector has moved out of 10 weeks of underperformance,' said Rahul Sharma, Director & Head - Research, JM Financial.
The Nifty major Call option concentration remained at 18000 Call strike for the monthly settlement. However, fresh activities were observed at deep OTM 18500 strikes as well suggesting expectations of fresh upward bias in the index in the settlement week. At the same time, Put options activities remained concentrated at the 17800 strike followed by 17500 strike. Hence, a move beyond the range of 17800-18000 may induce continued directional movement in either direction.
In the coming session, the trading spot band is between 17800 and 17970,which means further upsides are likely once the immediate resistances of 17970 are taken out and weakness could emerge if the supports of 17800 are broken.
~ Raushan Kumar, Derivative Analyst, IIFL
Volatile trading sessions are expected in Nifty Bank as we are approaching the expiry of the September series. As far as levels are concerned, 37625 –37800 are to be seen as immediate hurdles whereas, 36875–36500 should be treated as key supports for Nifty Bank. The first sign of real weakness in Nifty Bank would come only if Nifty Bank starts sliding below the lower range of 36450-36400. Aprajita Saxena, Research Analyst, Trustline Securities
Nifty remains in a medium-term uptrend for targets of 18000 and above; any meaningful correction is a good opportunity to buy. Support for the September series is seen at 17325 while resistance is expected at 17600-177700 levels. Breach of 17325 on the closing basis is expected to result in selling pressure to sub 17000 levels. Auto and Energy stocks trade with a positive bias while Metals are expected to consolidate before resuming uptrend. Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research- Derivatives at Kotak Securities
The Nifty has taken support at the 17300 levels. The direction in the short term is still not clear; we need to keep above 17600 on a closing basis in order to resume the current uptrend. On the flip side, if we break 17300 on a closing basis, we will endeavor a further slip to 17100-17150. It is a wait and watches the situation. Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments
After two days of sharp correction, benchmark indices witnessed a sharp pull back rally while Nifty found support at 17326 to reverse the falling trend. Technically, the texture of the sharp reversal formation near the 10 day SMA suggests further uptrend from the current level. We are of the view that while the short-term trend still looks up, uncertain global market conditions could see the Nifty within the range of 17650-17450 levels. For day traders, as long as the index is trading above 17450, pullback rally is likely to continue up to 17600-17650 -17680 levels. On the flip side, index below 17430, the uptrend would be vulnerable. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd
According to Daily charts, the key support levels for the Nifty are placed at 17,370 followed by 17,320. .If the index moves up, the key resistance levels to watch out for are 17615 and 17,720. The index has violated the short-term support of its five-day exponential moving average (EMA) but is still maintaining its level above 15 and 21-day EMA supports. Strong supports are placed at 17320- 17275 zone. Any dip to these levels will be a buying opportunity. Overall trading range is between 17300-and 17800 zones. On the hourly chart, the Nifty index has given a breakout of falling channel formation and showing a positive crossover in stochastic and RSI, which supports the upward trend. Aprajita Saxena, Research Analyst, Trustline Securities
The trend deciding level for Bank Nifty future is 37250. If it trades and sustains above 37250 bank nifty may test 37425-37610 but if it trades
below 37250, it may slide down to 36880-36645. Aprajita Saxena, Research Analyst, Trustline Securities
The confirmation of short term top reversal pattern is likely to drag Nifty down to 17200-17150 levels in the next few sessions. "Any attempt of upside bounce from here could find strong resistance at 17625 levels. However, a move below 17150 is likely to open more broad based weakness in the near term," Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.
The trend deciding level for Bank Nifty future is 37200 if it trades and sustains above 37200, Bank Nifty may test 38345-38550 but If trades below 37200, it may slide down to 37680-37370. On the technical front momentum indicator RSI when plotted on the daily timeframe can be seen sustaining consistently above the 65 mark which shows strong positive momentum in the short to medium term. If the long-term bullish trend remains intact Nifty bank can give a move towards 39000 and 39500 levels in the coming weeks. Aprajita Saxena, Research Analyst, Trustline Securities
Nifty has maintained the trading range between 17,375. on the lower side and 17,880 on the higher side. NIFTY may consolidate in the range of 17,630 and 17,850 levels for next few trading sessions. The 17,480 and 17,355 may act as strong support. We may see Nifty giving a move towards 18,100 and 18550 levels in the coming weeks. One should focus on mid and small cap stocks for higher returns as both these sectors are showing strength. Aprajita Saxena, Research Analyst, Trustline Securities
On Thursday, the Nifty opened higher and gained further strength as the day progressed closing with a gain of more than 0.43%. Looking at options data, aggressive OI addition was seen at 17500 Put option. Hence, we expect 17500 to act as immediate support. Nifty futures ended at a discount of 18 points while IV was up by 4.72%. The major Put base is at 17500 strike with 20 lakh shares while the major Call base is at the 17600 strike with 14 lakh shares.
~ ICICI Direct
The Nifty could immediately trade in a 1.30% range either side from 17600 with a bias on the upside, weekly options data show. The range for the market based on the combined value of the 17600 call and put expiring on September 23 is 17800-17400. The bias, going by the open interest put call ratio of 1, is on range bound,indicating traders have sold equal put and call options, expecting the market to move in between 17400-17800 and gobbling up the premiums received by selling puts and calls to the option buyers.
In the coming session, the trading spot band is between 17480 and 17660, which means further upsides are likely once the immediate resistances of 17660 are taken out and weakness could emerge if the supports of 17480 are broken.
~ Raushan Kumar, Derivative Analyst, IIFL Securities
The Nifty successfully closed above the 17450 mark which was a resistance owing to the sideways patch. We should now be heading higher to 17550 and then 17750. These are the next two target points to look out for. Since the first target is very close, a "buy on dips" approach is suggested. Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments
Nifty continues to trade with a positive bias for the short as well and medium term. We expect the index to conquer 18000 and above in the medium term. Last matured support for the index is seen at 17080 above which we remain positive. Options concentration is seen at 17000 put and 17500 call – this is indicative of some resistance at 17500-17600 levels. Value is seen in Auto and Mid-cap Banking stocks; expect outperformance in the midcap space to continue. Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research- Derivatives at Kotak Securities
Our research suggests that If the market is able to sustain the level of 17300, we can witness higher levels of 17700 as the momentum indicators like RSI and MACD to stay positive and market breadth to improve, further strengthening a short-term bullish outlook. Gaurav Garg, Head of Research CapitalVia Global Research
Minor unwinding was seen in Nifty Futures’, where Open Interest fell by 1.88% with Nifty falling by 0.08%.
Short build up was seen in Bank Nifty Futures’ where Open Interest rose by 2.73% with Bank Nifty falling by 0.58%
~ HDFC Securities
Nifty immediate support at 17,200 then 17,050 zones while resistance at 17,500 then 17,777 zones. Buy Nifty on decline with Stop loss of 17,200 for an up move towards 17,500 zones.
~ Motilal Oswal Financial Services
"Nifty continues to close in a narrow band of 17353-17378 over the past 5 sessions. This reflects lack of enthusiasm on the part of sellers to sell aggressively while buyers keep nibbling at individual stocks. Advanced decline ratio continues to be positive. 17254-17437 is the band for the near term for the Nifty," said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.
The Nifty traded in a tight range last week amid high volatility where stock specific action was seen. As broad based buying was absent, sectoral rotation was clearly visible where banking stocks witnessed marginal outperformance and the index managed to close above 36000 levels after sharp whipsaws.
Among private banks, Kotak Mahindra Bank outperformed whereas midcap banks also did better. PSU banks saw closure in writing Call OI positions indicating some positive trend in PSU banks in coming days.
~ ICICI Direct