The MCX share price is in focus today. It has plunged 4% intra-day. In fact, over the last 10 days the share price has been on a downward trajectory. While the key commodity exchange posted a 59% YoY growth in operating revenue and clocked 77% volume growth, Motilal Oswal has rated the stock Neutral.
According to the domestic brokerage house, higher employee costs, a slowdown in futures volumes, and a lower premium to the notional turnover ratio are some of the primary near-term overhang for the stock price. They have set a target of Rs 8,300 for the MCX share price. This implies barely 7% upside from current levels.
Motilal Oswal on MCX: Margins under pressure
MCX’s Q1 results indicated that the Exchange, though successful in maintaining operational efficiency, remains a key focus area for MCX. According to Motilal Oswal, the “EBITDA margin is expected to remain under pressure in the near-term, owing to weak volume trends and continued investments in tech and personnel.”
The management commentary also indicated that employee cost may continue to rise due to annual increments, headcount expansion, and apportionment of variable pay. The management guided that the employee cost “run rate is expected to be consistent in the subsequent quarters as well.”
Motilal Oswal on MCX: Cut FY27 earnings estimate
Given the margin pressure that’s expected, Motilal Oswal cut its estimates for MCX’s projected FY27 EPS. The brokerage house has cut EPS estimates for FY26 and FY27 by 4% and 7%, respectively. factoring in higher employee costs, a slowdown in futures volumes, and a lower premium to the notional turnover ratio.
MCX: Regulatory concerns
The product pipeline for MCX remains strong across metals, agri, and bullion contracts. However, the management indicated that the exchange is awaiting regulatory approvals, after which product launches will proceed according to the internal timeline.
Index options are part of the product pipeline too. But there too, the exchange is awaiting regulatory clarity on expiry formats. Given that the current regulatory stance remains cautious with respect to weekly expiries, one needs to wait and watch. Potential slowdown in future volume is another big concern in this context, going forward.
MCX share price performance
The MCX share price slipped almost 4% in intraday trade, but over 6 months the share price has jumped 44%. In 2025 so far, MCX has delivered 23% returns, and the 1-year return exceeds 58%.