The onset of the LOk Sabha elections has added a fresh dash of energy in the buzzing Satta Market in Rajasthan’s Falodi. Infamous for its illegal betting operations that range from cricket matches, election results to monsoon, this grey market — arguably India’s largest — draws people from across the nation with transactions worth millions.

With two phases of Lok Sabha Elections 2024 already concluded — and the third underway — victory prospects and potential defeats have taken centrestage here. Besides the prospects of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government and the Congress-led INDIA bloc, states like Uttar Pradesh continue to dominate discussions and curiosity in this obscure Rajasthan town and elsewhere.

Also Read: ‘Great Gamblers’ of Phalodi: Poll predictions rarely go wrong in this sleepy Rajasthan town

As per the Falodi Satta Bazar, the Bharatiya Janata Party, which has set itself a steep target of winning all 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP, is predicted to win 335 to 340 seats and claim majority on its own. The figures suggest an increase of 30-35 seats for the BJP which won 303 seats in the 2019 elections. The Congress, as per the grey market, may have to settle at a meagre 40-42 seats, significantly lower than its 2019 tally of 52 seats.

In terms of Uttar Pradesh, the Falodi Satta Bazar predicts 73-75 for the NDA, 5 seats for the INDIA bloc partners Congress and Samajwadi Party and zero seats for the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party. With 80 seats in the Lok Sabha, Uttar Pradesh sends the maximum number of MPs to the Lower House among all other states and union territories.

Also Read: Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Phalodi satta bazar bets on NDA getting less than two-thirds majority

Phalodi Satta Bazar rates for Lok Sabha elections 2024

BJP’s odds hover between 330 to 335 seats at Re. 1, while the odds for 350 seats stand at Rs. 3, and 400 seats range between Rs. 12 to 15. The odds for NDA to secure 400 seats are placed at Rs. 4 to 5. However, surpassing the 400-seat mark appears to be quite a challenge for BJP, according to grey market projections.

Phalodi Satta Bazar poll predictions history

The grey market’s estimates for the Karnataka Assembly elections held last year came close to the actual results, with Congress and BJP securing 137 and 55 seats, respectively. Similarly, the Phalodi Satta Bazar also accurately predicted a Congress victory in Himachal Pradesh in 2022 when most exit polls were divided on the issue.

The Falodi Satta Market allocates higher odds to the losing party and lower odds to the winning one, indicating the likelihood of victory rather than the party’s strength.

(DISCLAIMER: Gambling is illegal unless permitted by state-specific laws. Readers are advised to stay away from it. The purpose of this news item is only to present the prevailing trends in the betting market. Financial Express Online does not vouch for the factual correctness of these projections or promote or endorse betting markets in any manner.)