The plethora of announcements for Bihar in the first Union Budget presented by the Modi 3.0 government is far from being targetted at polls, set to be held in the state in the latter half of next year, and instead reflects the emergence of a new political reality. Following the BJP’s humbling performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections, and its increased dependence on Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) to keep it in power at the Centre and in Bihar, the slew of doles announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman for the state shows that the government has accepted this new reality.
The message from the Lok Sabha elections was clear – the aura of ‘Brand Modi’ running on the solitary plank of ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ is not enough to win over a large section of voters any longer. Voters now need something tangible to bring a party to government and this Budget was a representation of the BJP’s acceptance that failure to keep allies happy may lead to Narendra Modi being dethroned from power.
On Tuesday, the FM announced an allocation of Rs 26,000 crore for initiatives such as the Purvodaya project, an industrial node at Gaya, road connectivity initiatives, and expressways. This is over and above the allocation of Rs 21,400 crore for power projects and Rs 11,500 crore for flood relief. The Budget also seeks to assist in the construction of the Patna-Purnea expressway, the Buxar-Bhagalpur highway, and the Bodhgaya-Rajgir-Vaishali-Darbhanga road connectivity projects, the additional two-lane bridge over the River Ganga in Buxar, a 2,400 MW power project in Pirpainti in Bhagalpur, besides assistance in new schemes of barrages, river pollution abatement, and irrigation projects.
Andhra Pradesh, led by the Telugu Desam Party, another ally of the BJP, also secured significant allocations. The government has promised Rs 15,000 crore for reconstruction, additional funds for the Polavaram Project, investments in the Vizag Chennai Industrial Corridor, and special funds for seven backward districts. A majority of the FM’s allocations were concentrated on meeting commitments under the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Act.
This Budget, in many ways, is more about the BJP keeping its allies with it than it is about winning elections. Assembly polls in several states like Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, and Jammu and Kashmir are due to be held this year, much before Bihar goes to polls in November-December next year. While it may be argued that the BJP always has polls on its mind, its intent appears to be focussed on keeping the Opposition at arm’s length from any attempts to woo JD(U) and Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP. Both parties cumulatively command 28 of the NDA’s 293 MPs in Lok Sabha and are crucial for maintaining the government’s majority in the House.
The allocations for Bihar in the Budget on Tuesday are more out of what BJP views as political compulsion and little about any large-heartedness with polls in mind. But they did not really come as a surprise. The prelude to the Budget saw leaders from Bihar and Andhra Pradesh make a strong pitch for a special status. However, the aggression behind the demand faded as the Centre met all parties a day ahead of the Budget Session that began Monday. The softening of stance by leaders from both states showed that the Centre had managed to pacify them in exchange for significant allocations during the Budget.
While the BJP may have managed to keep Nitish and co in good humour, winning elections in Bihar may be a totally different ballgame altogether. The RJD-Congress-Left combine may have failed to exceed the NDA’s tally in the Lok Sabha elections, come Assembly polls and the situation will be in stark difference. Nitish, the Opposition claims, is well past his expiry date as far as his political relevance in the state is concerned. Frequent flip-flops leading to a change in the government in power each time have only dented his image further.
The BJP, on the other hand, has failed to develop a leadership face capable of drawing support from the vast canvas of voters divided by caste and religion. The absence of former Deputy CM Sushil Kumar Modi will also hurt the BJP’s chances. Despite Bihar being one of the states where BJP performed well in the Lok Sabha polls, its muted performance on the national level and the Opposition’s positioning of having made significant gains will also have a bearing on the minds of voters.
The BJP may have managed to keep its allies in check with the significant allocations, it is far from home as far as retaining power in the state in 2025 is concerned.