POLITICS

Will the Opposition manage to get its act together, or will the Bharatiya Janata Party win 2019 hands down? Could 2018 be election year?

When the results of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections were declared in March this year, it was a resounding vote in favour of Narendra Modi. Many in the Opposition lost steam and gave up all hope of any resistance in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. But analysts say if the Gujarat election results, declared on December 18, are any indicator, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) needs to get its act together. “The ruling party is beginning to lose steam. For the first time, there is unhappiness, resentment and occasional anger among the masses,” says Swaraj Abhiyan founder and psephologist Yogendra Yadav. The party won in Himachal Pradesh due to anti-incumbency, but the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate, Prem Kumar Dhumal, and the state BJP chief lost. The elevation of Rahul Gandhi as Congress president could be a signal of him being the prime ministerial candidate in 2019, but the party is not committing. Yet. “By taking charge of the party, he has clearly signalled his intent to take the lead as the head of the Opposition in times to come,” says Priyanka Chaturvedi, convenor-communication, All India Congress Committee (AICC). It is this lack of a powerful prime ministerial candidate that remains the biggest advantage for Team Modi, especially as all opposition has been ‘neutralised’. While the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party pitted itself against Modi in the last general elections, the party has been lying low recently and its drubbing in the Punjab elections has certainly not helped. Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar, who was seen as a credible contender to Modi during the emergence of Mahagathbandhan before the Bihar polls, is now an ally in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and likely to remain so in the next general elections.

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But not everyone agrees. Veteran leader Sharad Yadav cites the example of the dawn of the socialist era of the 1970s. “People are asking who can succeed Modi, just as they asked who can succeed Indira Gandhi. But she was opposed by the Janata alliance and, at that time, we didn’t have any prime ministerial candidate. There are more examples. Neither were Deve Gowda or VP Singh ever projected as prime ministerial candidates. So this whole question of who can people look up to besides Modi is pointless,” he says. And, opposition is building up from other quarters. Superstar Rajinikanth might enter the political arena, and is likely to announce his political plans today. However, it’s not known if he will join politics or will just make his stance public. “I am not saying I will come into politics. I said I will announce my decision on 31st,” he had said earlier this week. Veteran actor Kamal Haasan has announced his decision to form a political party and though he hasn’t expressed any political leanings, he has been critical about the existing government. In August, Rahul Gandhi held a meeting with 12 of the major opposition parties, including traditional rivals Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, as well as Trinamool Congress and the Left.

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Political analysts predict 2018 will be a litmus test for the Congress chief, who will have to prove himself in four big states—Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Chhattisgarh—which together account for 744 Assembly seats. “The BJP is defeatable. In Karnataka, the Congress has a strong presence under its chief minister, and the fight will be Siddaramaiah against Modi,” asserts Derek O’Brien of Trinamool Congress. Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are states where the Congress hopes it will gain on the anti-incumbency factor. “The win in Chitrakoot Assembly bypoll (in Madhya Pradesh) in November is a big boost for the Congress,” says Amulya Ganguli, a political analyst. In Rajasthan, the Congress won 13 of the 26 seats in Panchayat bypolls in September. “Our strategy will be to tackle the BJP on issues like demonetisation, GST, job losses, women’s safety, economy, etc. In our fight against the ruling party, we are going to align with like-minded parties so that it becomes a strong voice of Opposition,” says Chaturvedi. Yadav feels the real opposition to the ruling party will be from the “streets”. “The real tragedy is that the Opposition is not in a position to sell anything attractive. So the people’s movement will be the real opposition to the ruling party,” he feels.

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“I think the Opposition will grow stronger because of the growing disenchantment with the BJP, if not so much with Modi,” says Ganguli. In Gujarat, the BJP boasted of securing close to 150 seats, but had to be content with just 99. “So be reasonably sure that certain games will be played by all the parties to defeat BJP in the next set of elections,” Yadav adds. However, the BJP remains unfazed. Parry spokesperson Shaina NC says there is no opposition worth fighting against. “In the 21st century, politics is about performance and not a surname. There has been no performance to talk about for the Congress, so there is no question of the re-emergence of any Opposition,” she says.

What to expect in 2018

It is predicted that several big parties will join hands to take on Modi. “Quite a few of the opposition parties are likely to come together under the Congress, including the Left, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and perhaps the Nationalist Congress Party,” predicts Ganguli. Derek O’Brien feels that every state that has a strong party presence, be it regional or otherwise, will fight a battle against the BJP in 2018. “We will fight the state elections alone, but we aren’t opposed to the idea of a unified Opposition to take on the BJP in the general elections,” he says. “Currently, we may be looking scattered, but soon, the Opposition is going to work together for an alternative,” says Naresh Agarwal of Samajwadi Party. There are also whispers that elections might happen in the winter of 2018. “But if the BJP loses in Karnataka, Rajasthan, MP or Tripura in 2018, it will not bring the general election forward,” says analyst Amulya Ganguli. Though the CPI(M) has ruled out joining hands with the Congress, Yogendra Yadav believes that most parties will come together under a “grand alliance”. “Modi is proactive while the Opposition is reactive. They are waiting for him to make mistakes and then benefit from them. That will be their strategy in 2018,” he says. It is also the year when Kamal Haasan will reveal his party’s political ideology and agenda.

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Will all this strategising yield any results, or will the BJP go into the general elections without any contest? Would former J&K chief minister and National Conference leader Omar Abdullah’s famous tweet post BJP’s victory in Uttar Pradesh—”At this rate we might as well forget 2019 & start planning/hoping for 2024”—prove prophetic? Year 2018 will provide some answers.