Nitish Kumar seems to be a man in a hurry. Six months after he broke ranks with the Bharatiya Janata Party to realign with the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress and others to form a government in Bihar, Nitish has never articulated the need for Opposition parties to come together ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 with the urgency he showed during his address at the 11th General Convention of CPI-ML in Patna on Saturday.
Impressing upon the need for Congress to make a “quick decision”, Nitish made a fresh push for a united front, stating that if “his suggestion” is accepted, the BJP would be reduced to “less than 100 seats” in the upcoming general elections a year from now.
“If they (Congress) take my suggestion and fight together, BJP will go below 100 seats, but if they don’t take my suggestion, you know what will happen,” Nitish said, without delving into the finer aspects of his suggestion to the Congress.
Nitish Kumar’s declaration that RJD leader and Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav will be the Bihar CM face for the 2025 Bihar assembly elections has been seen as a step towards realising his own national ambitions. On his part, Nitish has repeatedly denied being in contention for the prime minister’s post, but does not favour anyone else being named as the PM face either.
Congress responds: Don’t need any certificate
The Congress said it welcomes the remarks by Nitish Kumar, but also sought to assert its own role and importance in bringing like-minded Opposition parties together in the fight against the BJP for the Lok Sabha elections. “Nobody needs to give us a certificate that we have to lead because any opposition unity without the Congress will be unsuccessful. So we welcome the statement of Nitish Kumar… this will be discussed in the plenary and whatever we have to do for the 2024 polls,” asserted Congress general secretary communication Jairam Ramesh.
The remarks reflect the party’s position that only Congress can lead any united front against the BJP on a national level, with Rahul Gandhi as the leader of any such effort. “Nitish has acknowledged that the Bharat Jodo Yatra has had an impact not only on the Congress but on Indian politics,” Ramesh noted, adding that he welcomes the Bihar Chief Minister’s praise for the recently-concluded footmarch led by Rahul. “It is a tranformational moment for Indian politics, he (Nitish) has acknowledged,” he added.
A calculated strategy
The remarks by Ramesh also makes it crystal clear that the Opposition is yet to address the issue of leadership a year ahead of polls. The issue has plagued similar efforts by top regional leaders like Mamata Banerjee and N Chandrababu Naidu in the past election as well. Fresh attempts by K Chandrasekhar Rao and Nitish Kumar have made no significant headway either.
If you go by the recent statements, the renewed push by Nitish Kumar ahead of the 2024 polls could be heading in the same direction. Unless the Opposition has a plan B ready. Reports have it that Nitish could be working on a strategy for the Opposition to unitedly fight the BJP — in Bihar and neighbouring states at least — without a PM face.
What adds to his recent push is a recent C-Voter survey which predicts major losses for the NDA in Bihar and big gains for the UPA in comparison to its tally in 2019. The survey predicts 25 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats for the UPA in Bihar, a massive jump from the one seat it bagged in 2019. The BJP, which won 39 seats in the last elections, is looking at a damage of around 15 seats in its tally, as per the survey.
The magic formula
Nitish’s plan is said to revolve around 134 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar (40), Jharkhand (24) and Uttar Pradesh (80) where the NDA — the JD(U) was its part in the last elections — bagged 39 in Bihar, 12 in Jharkhand and 64 in UP, collectively accounting for 86 per cent of its tally from these three states. Of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP has a lion’s share of 303 while non-BJP parties hold the remaining 240 seats.
Any gains by the non-BJP parties in these 134 seats could spell trouble for the ruling government. Nitish is also banking on the impact of the JD(U) and RJD joining hands together against the BJP in a state where the caste factor plays a key role in determining poll outcomes.
For Nitish Kumar, the primary challenge however is not to settle the question of leadership in the non-BJP camp. While the RJD, JMM and SP are likely to back Nitish on this strategy, Nitish will need to convince the Congress to agree to some harsh compromises. The grand old party so far does not look like it could be thinking along the same lines. And this precisely could prove the biggest hurdle for Nitish Kumar to make Plan B work.
