Lok Sabha polls 2024 seat prediction: Narendra Modi is likely to return as the Prime Minister for a third consecutive term, equalling the record held by India’s first PM Jawaharlal Nehru, in the Lok Sabha elections scheduled to be held around April next year, a recent opinion poll has revealed.
As per the India TV-CNX opinion poll survey, the BJP could cross the majority mark of 272 on its own in the 543-member House. Surprisingly, the newly-launched INDIA alliance of 26 Opposition parties may finish third on the list of winners despite gains for Congress as compared to 2019.
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As per the survey, the BJP is likely to win 290 seats on its own, a drop of 13 seats as compared to its 2019 tally of 303. The Congress, on the other hand, could register victories in 66 seats, 14 more than its 2019 tally of 52.
In terms of alliances, the NDA is likely to see a drop of 35 seats and could finish with a tally of 318 seats, down 35 seats from its tally of 353 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Opposition alliance of 26 parties, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance may be limited to 175 seats while Others may win 50 seats in the Lok Sabha.
Regarding vote share, Others may pip the INDIA alliance, bagging 32.6 per cent and 24.9 per cent votes, respectively. The BJP alone is likely to garner 42.5 per cent votes while the NDA combined may win a vote share of 57.5 per cent if elections are held today.
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In the Lok Sabha elections in 2019, the BJP won 37.76 per cent of votes, while the NDA’s combined vote was 45 per cent. The change in seats and the vote percentage needs to be seen in the context of changing alliance partners. The NDA during the 2019 elections and the NDA that is likely to head into elections in 2024.
While the undivided Shiv Sena, Janata Dal (United) and the Shirmani Akali Dal were part of the NDA at the time, the 2024 polls are likely to see the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena, the Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party fight alongside the BJP. The Janata Dal (United), however, is no longer with the NDA.
The opinion poll has also predicted big gains for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which has recently joined the INDIA bloc of Opposition parties. The survey shows that the AAP could register its highest tally in the Lok Sabha elections, winning 10 seats – nine more than it currently holds.
The findings of the India TV-CNX opinion poll are in line with the findings of other surveys conducted in the recent past over different time periods. The Times Now-ETG opinion poll results released last month predicted victory for the NDA in 285-325 Lok Sabha seats in the 543-member Lower House. The UPA, on the other hand, was projected to win 111-149 seats in the elections next year.
The results of the India Today-CVoter opinion poll in January also predicted a rerun of the NDA government at the Centre, predicting 298 seats to the ruling alliance while the UPA was shown winning 153 seats, and Others 92.