The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday forecast “above normal” monsoon rainfall during June-September this year, with 89% chance of the rains being in the “normal-to excess” range.
In terms of regional distribution, the met department said ‘above-normal’ rainfall is expected over most parts of the country with the exception of northeast, parts of Bihar and Tamil Nadu.
This boosts hopes of robust agriculture-sector output for a second year in row, as kharif sowing, which is to start with the rains, accounts for about 60% of the crop production. Monsoon rains also provide soil moisture for the winter crops.
“This year’s rainfall during the forthcoming monsoon season is likely to be 105% of the benchmark long period average (LPA) with an average error margin of +/- 5”, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD said. “There is a strong and higher probability of monsoon rainfall to be above-normal range this season,”Mohapatra said.
According to agriculture ministry’s estimate, food grains production in the crop year 2024-25 (July-June) is around 341 million tonne. Gross value added (GVA) in agriculture and allied sectors grew by robust 3.8% (second advance estimates) in FY25, to compared with 1.4% in FY24. Crops account for roughly 54% of farm-sector GVA.
The monsoon rains were ‘above normal’ last year with cumulative precipitation of 108% of LPA as predicted by the weather department initially. This was the best monsoon reason in four years, and followed patchy ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall of 94% of benchmark in 2023.
Last week, private weather forecaster Skymet had projected a ‘normal’ southwest monsoon season (June-September), with the cumulative rainfall of 103% of the LPA. The IMD will provide updated forecast on forthcoming monsoon rainfall in the last week of May.
M Ravichandran, secretary, ministry of earth sciences said. “its too early to give a specific forecast about the regional distribution of rainfall across four monsoon months.”
“While the initial forecast of an above normal monsoon is encouraging, the timing and distribution will be key for the implications for agri output and food inflation going ahead, Icra chief economist Aditi Nayar said. A spatially well-distributed rain would go a long way in boosting kharif crops – paddy, pulses and oilseeds output and also provide adequate soil moisture for the rabir or winter crops including wheat, oilseeds and pulses. The rains would also help boost reservoir levels which are expected to fall during summer months.
Ravichandran said while the neutral El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole conditions will continue during monsoon months, below normal snow cover over Eurasia and northern hemisphere will boost monsoon prospects. “Between 1901 and 2022, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation was observed during 42 seasons, out of which 30 years saw above average rainfall,” Akshay Deoras, research scientist at the UK’s University of Reading told FE. Experts said the link between the quantum of rainfall and farm production has over the years become less remarkable, but the distribution pattern still has a significant bearing on crop yields.
Typically, the southwest monsoon after onset over Kerala coast in early June covers the entire country by July. The monsoon rains start gradually receding from the north region from the middle of September.
The IMD classifies ‘normal’ rainfall between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall between 90%-95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of LPA is termed ‘deficient’.